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Junior Men

04.10.2025 Hurghada EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Junior Cup Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 28/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.9
Mean swim error89.4 s
Mean bike-speed error5.05 km/h
Correct bike groups3/11
No history1
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Ibrahim Mahmoud
EGY
+29 s
+93 s
G2 / G5
 18:36
18:19
 55:13
Show details
Prediction details: Ibrahim Mahmoud

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 5:49
Pace: 0:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: -63.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.22 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.3 s
Gap behind: 9.7 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 55:13
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:49 (0:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:58 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Total: 55:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Karim Mostafa
EGY
+160 s
+61 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:06
18:07
 56:26
Show details
Prediction details: Karim Mostafa

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +160 s
Time: 8:00
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 99.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 56:26
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 8:00 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:40 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 56:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 156.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 9 Mohand Saleh
EGY
+141 s
+104 s
G4 / G7
 18:58
20:28
 57:18
Show details
Prediction details: Mohand Saleh

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +141 s
Time: 7:41
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: 37.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 12.4 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 57:18
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 7:41 (1:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:40 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Total: 57:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 137.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1 Ryan Lundy
IRL
+136 s
+8 s
G4 / G2
 19:13
19:18
 57:33
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Lundy

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +136 s
Time: 7:36
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 128.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 57:33
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:36 (1:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:40 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Total: 57:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 132.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 10 Eslam Hisham
EGY
+124 s
+0 s
G4 / G1
 19:20
26:42
 57:40
Show details
Prediction details: Eslam Hisham

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 7:24
Pace: 0:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 123.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 50.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -17.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:42 (5:20 / km)
Error: −7:22 / −1:28 / km
Overall prediction: 57:40
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:24 (0:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:40 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: 57:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 119.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11 Omar Albi
LBA
+133 s
+57 s
G4 / G6
 20:32
24:07
 58:52
Show details
Prediction details: Omar Albi

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +133 s
Time: 7:33
Pace: 1:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 75.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:07 (4:49 / km)
Error: −3:35 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 58:52
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:33 (1:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:40 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Total: 58:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 128.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Eslam Mohamad
EGY
+192 s
+89 s
G5 / G5
correct 		18:41
18:43
 58:56
Show details
Prediction details: Eslam Mohamad

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +192 s
Time: 8:32
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: 103.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 58:56
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:32 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:03 (31.6 km/h)
Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Total: 58:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 188.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 4 Mohamed Abd El Moughny
EGY
+154 s
+9 s
G4 / G1
 20:48
19:08
 59:08
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed Abd El Moughny

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +154 s
Time: 7:54
Pace: 1:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 144.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.4 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 51.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -18.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: +1:40 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 59:08
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 7:54 (1:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:40 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Total: 59:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 149.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8 Omar Ezz
EGY
+117 s
+9 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:04
21:25
 59:13
Show details
Prediction details: Omar Ezz

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +117 s
Time: 7:17
Pace: 0:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 108.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 78.4 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:25 (4:17 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 59:13
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 7:17 (0:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Total: 59:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 113.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 2 Abdelaziz Sobhy
EGY
+39 s
+83 s
G2 / G4
 36:07
17:17
 1:12:44
Show details
Prediction details: Abdelaziz Sobhy

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 5:59
Pace: 0:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -44.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.36 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.7 s
Gap behind: 78.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:07 (7:13 / km)
Historical basis: 7:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: +18:50 / +3:46 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:44
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:59 (0:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:58 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 36:07 (7:13 / km)
Total: 1:12:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:24
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
About 35.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Islam Mohamed
EGY
+0 s
+55 s
G1 / G3
20:46
Show details
Prediction details: Islam Mohamed

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:20
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -55.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 29.3 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 5:20 (0:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:55 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12 Seif Gamal
EGY
+0 s
+92 s
G0 / G8
36:20
Show details
Prediction details: Seif Gamal

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:20
Pace: 0:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:20 (7:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:20 (0:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.