Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Men

06.07.2025 Larache MAR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Premium Cup Larache

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 06.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 62/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 84.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error11.0
Mean swim error15.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.53 km/h
Correct bike groups10/50
No history0
Within the 80% range44.0 %
Details
1 / 11 Nicolo' Astori
ITA
+27 s
+30 s
G2 / G3
 14:52
15:25
 43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolo' Astori

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 13.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 4 Miguel Espuna Larramona
ITA
+23 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:10
15:29
 43:26
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Espuna Larramona

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 10 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+15 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:20
16:04
 43:36
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:34
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:34 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Till Kramp
GER
+22 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 15:28
15:29
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Benedikt Bettin
GER
+23 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 15:28
15:43
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–16
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 18 Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg
DEN
+20 s
+0 s
G2 / G3
 15:30
16:01
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:39
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 20.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 13 Andres Gras
CHI
+33 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 15:36
15:40
 43:52
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Gras

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–21
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 18.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 26 Diogo Tomé
POR
+53 s
+22 s
G4 / G3
 14:35
16:47
 43:58
Show details
Prediction details: Diogo Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 30.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: −2:12 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 43:58
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Total: 43:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 38.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Luke McCarron
IRL
+35 s
+28 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:21
15:39
 43:58
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McCarron

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 1–23
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 21.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 1 Chris Ziehmer
GER
+23 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 15:45
15:27
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Ziehmer

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 6 Simeone Romano
ITA
+35 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 15:25
15:37
 44:02
Show details
Prediction details: Simeone Romano

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 21.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 7 Lorenzo Pelliciardi
ITA
+43 s
+57 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:34
15:02
 44:11
Show details
Prediction details: Lorenzo Pelliciardi

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 2–30
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 28.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 41 Joshua Felten
GER
+10 s
+79 s
G1 / G7
 16:31
17:20
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Felten

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:29
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -69.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:29 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 44:15
14 / 32 Daniel Tolosa Aguelo
ESP
+40 s
+60 s
G3 / G7
 15:40
16:11
 44:17
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Tolosa Aguelo

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–24
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -20.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 43 Niklas Keller
AUT
+41 s
+36 s
G3 / G7
 15:45
17:22
 44:22
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 7–21
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: −1:37 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 44:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 27 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Niccolò Sancisi
ITA
+29 s
+61 s
G2 / G5
 16:18
15:47
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Niccolò Sancisi

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–26
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -32.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Aurelien Carre
LUX
+35 s
+49 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:02
15:51
 44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Carre

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 21.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 12 Kiril Polikarpenko
ITA
+35 s
+29 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:04
15:37
 44:41
Show details
Prediction details: Kiril Polikarpenko

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:41
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 28 Leon Vollstedt
GER
+42 s
+7 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:10
16:58
 44:47
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Vollstedt

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–27
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 34.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 1.40 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:47
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 30 Lucas García Picón
ESP
+43 s
+72 s
G3 / G5
 16:23
16:34
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas García Picón

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -29.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 28.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 48 Márton Soma Kovács
HUN
+41 s
+46 s
G3 / G9
 16:25
17:10
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Márton Soma Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–31
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 27.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 31 Till Clijsen
SUI
+46 s
+43 s
G3 / G5
 16:29
17:17
 45:06
Show details
Prediction details: Till Clijsen

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 20–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 45:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 32.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 17 Fiorenzo Angelini
ITA
+39 s
+24 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:33
15:54
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Fiorenzo Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 19–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.33 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 27 Philipp Mack
GER
+27 s
+17 s
G2 / G3
 16:55
16:55
 45:11
Show details
Prediction details: Philipp Mack

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 17–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 33 Lukas Meckel
GER
+61 s
+26 s
G4 / G3
 15:52
17:56
 45:15
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Meckel

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 14–42
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 35.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.31 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.61 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 45:15
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 45:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 47.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 21 Tzu I Pan
TPE
+38 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:41
16:18
 45:18
Show details
Prediction details: Tzu I Pan

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 15–36
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 23.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 34 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+56 s
+77 s
G4 / G7
 15:59
16:20
 45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 11–36
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -21.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 41.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 29 Johannes Sikk
EST
+51 s
+68 s
G4 / G5
 16:21
16:33
 45:44
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Sikk

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 15–35
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -17.5 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 45:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 36.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 50 Jose Javier Castro Rivas
MEX
+48 s
+40 s
G3 / G10
 17:07
17:50
 45:44
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Javier Castro Rivas

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 20–40
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:44
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 24 Daniele Gambitta
ITA
+62 s
+71 s
G4 / G5
 16:28
16:01
 45:51
Show details
Prediction details: Daniele Gambitta

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 27–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:51
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 48.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 19 Maximilian Krüger
GER
+27 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:36
17:33
 45:52
Show details
Prediction details: Maximilian Krüger

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 27–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 17.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:52
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 45:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 13 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 45 Fabio Bruschi
ITA
+25 s
+32 s
G2 / G7
 17:41
17:58
 45:57
Show details
Prediction details: Fabio Bruschi

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -7.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:57
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 10.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 22 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+66 s
+60 s
G5 / G5
correct 		15:54
15:43
 46:01
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 11–43
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 5 (6 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:56 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 46:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 51.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 38 Max Meckel
GER
+31 s
+8 s
G2 / G6
 17:52
17:37
 46:08
Show details
Prediction details: Max Meckel

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 32–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 22.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:08
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 46:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 16.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 37 Ákos Kárpáti
HUN
+62 s
+57 s
G4 / G7
 16:50
16:46
 46:13
Show details
Prediction details: Ákos Kárpáti

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 31–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 47.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 23 Christophe Gardner
AUS
+54 s
+61 s
G4 / G3
 17:05
16:32
 46:28
Show details
Prediction details: Christophe Gardner

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 28–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -6.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 46:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 40.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 46 Lukas Merta
GER
+30 s
+6 s
G2 / G4
 18:13
19:43
 46:29
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Merta

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 34–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 24.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 46:29
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:43 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 16.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 35 Brener Valencia Nuñez
PER
+64 s
+66 s
G5 / G7
 16:26
16:23
 46:33
Show details
Prediction details: Brener Valencia Nuñez

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 27–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -2.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:56 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Total: 46:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 49.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 5 Jan Scheffold
GER
+38 s
+23 s
G3 / G2
 18:03
15:41
 46:40
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Scheffold

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 33–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 15.3 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: +2:22 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 46:40
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Total: 46:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 24.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 47 Joran Stobbe
NED
+59 s
+74 s
G4 / G7
 17:19
18:14
 46:42
Show details
Prediction details: Joran Stobbe

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 30–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 46:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 46:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 44.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 9 Luca Fahrenson
GER
+49 s
+14 s
G4 / G3
 17:24
15:06
 46:47
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Fahrenson

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 30–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 35.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +2:18 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 46:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Total: 46:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 35.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 40 Diego Ladera Querales
PER
+71 s
+64 s
G5 / G7
 16:43
17:11
 46:50
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Ladera Querales

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 13–47
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.21 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 16.0 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:50
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:56 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 56.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 44 Jonas Hauser
AUT
+40 s
+26 s
G3 / G7
 18:33
17:48
 47:10
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 25–47
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 13.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 47:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 25.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 49 Li Rong, Luke Chua
SGP
+53 s
+33 s
G4 / G8
 17:51
18:59
 47:14
Show details
Prediction details: Li Rong, Luke Chua

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 34–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 47:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 47:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 38.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 15 David González Borges
ESP
+55 s
+34 s
G4 / G2
 17:54
16:35
 47:17
Show details
Prediction details: David González Borges

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 34–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 47:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Total: 47:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 41 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 36 Xoel Rodriguez Abad
ESP
+61 s
+75 s
G4 / G7
 18:00
16:44
 47:23
Show details
Prediction details: Xoel Rodriguez Abad

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 40–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -13.8 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 47:23
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 47:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 47.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 42 Joaquín Mojica Baquero
COL
+67 s
+80 s
G5 / G7
 17:19
17:23
 47:26
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquín Mojica Baquero

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 40–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -13.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:56 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 53 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 39 Matteo Brian Kozka
GER
+87 s
+76 s
G6 / G7
 17:46
16:55
 52:50
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Brian Kozka

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 47–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (13 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:50
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:37 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 52:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 72.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 25 Carlos Oliver Vives
ESP
+62 s
+54 s
G4 / G3
 25:30
16:57
 54:53
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Oliver Vives

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 49–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 8.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:30 (5:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Error: +8:33 / +1:43 / km
Overall prediction: 54:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 25:30 (5:06 / km)
Total: 54:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 48.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 8 Davide Menichelli
ITA
+66 s
+64 s
G5 / G3
 28:24
15:05
 58:31
Show details
Prediction details: Davide Menichelli

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 50–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 42

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (17 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:24 (5:41 / km)
Historical basis: 5:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Error: +13:19 / +2:40 / km
Overall prediction: 58:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:56 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 28:24 (5:41 / km)
Total: 58:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
About 51.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.