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U23 Men

26.09.2025 El Galala EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Sprint Championships El Galala

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error45.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.81 km/h
Correct bike groups1/6
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Zakaria Chtioui
TUN
+3 s
+29 s
G1 / G3
 17:07
16:11
 47:57
Show details
Prediction details: Zakaria Chtioui

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -26.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 22.6 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 47:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:47 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:57
2 / 1 Matthew Van Coller
RSA
+44 s
+0 s
G3 / G1
 17:16
16:24
 49:00
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 43.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 18.1 s
Gap behind: 30.2 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:00 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 49:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 36.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Adel Rabir
ALG
+26 s
+22 s
G2 / G3
 18:04 49:08
Show details
Prediction details: Adel Rabir

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 3.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 22.6 s
Gap behind: 18.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 49:08
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 14 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Abdelrahman Tantish
PLE
+74 s
+29 s
G4 / G2
 17:00
17:08
 51:16
Show details
Prediction details: Abdelrahman Tantish

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 44.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 30.2 s
Gap behind: 16.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:16
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 51:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 67 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Bongani Tshabalala
RSA
+91 s
+36 s
G5 / G4
 19:08
18:59
 56:39
Show details
Prediction details: Bongani Tshabalala

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 54.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.9 s
Gap behind: 51.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 56:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 56:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 83.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Chad Uys
RSA
+142 s
+44 s
G5 / G5
correct
18:42
Show details
Prediction details: Chad Uys

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +142 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 97.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 51.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (33.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 120.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.