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U23 Women

26.09.2025 El Galala EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Sprint Championships El Galala

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.5
Mean swim error74.8 s
Mean bike-speed error2.84 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Nora Nouri
MAR
+75 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 20:43
19:36
 1:00:51
Show details
Prediction details: Nora Nouri

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 12:48
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 52.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 52.3 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:36 (3:55 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:51
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:48 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:53 (30.9 km/h)
Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:00:51
2 / 1 Andie Kuipers
ZIM
+73 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:53
20:45
 1:01:01
Show details
Prediction details: Andie Kuipers

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 12:46
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 73.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:46 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:53 (30.9 km/h)
Run: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Total: 1:01:01
3 / 3 Shahd Walid
EGY
+128 s
+49 s
G2 / G4
 20:16
22:05
 1:10:24
Show details
Prediction details: Shahd Walid

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time: 13:41
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 78.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 52.3 s
Gap behind: 50.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:05 (4:25 / km)
Error: −1:49 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:24
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:41 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:10 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Total: 1:10:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:53
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
About 48.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +79.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Josette Umi Njeri Kiarie
KEN
+178 s
+82 s
G2 / G3
 27:10
28:51
 1:17:18
Show details
Prediction details: Josette Umi Njeri Kiarie

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +178 s
Time: 14:31
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: 95.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 50.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:10 (5:26 / km)
Historical basis: 5:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:51 (5:46 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:17:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:31 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:10 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 27:10 (5:26 / km)
Total: 1:17:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:53
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
About 98.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +79.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.