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Prediction comparison

Junior Men

07.12.2025 Barra de Maldonado URU
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup and Iberoamerican Championships Maldonado

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 58/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 75.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.4
Correct bike groups0/0
No history1
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Ignacio Flores Arana
CHI
+38 s
 Bike DNF 15:48
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacio Flores Arana

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Sebastian Zurob
CHI
+23 s
 Bike DNF 15:22
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Zurob

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Thomas Francisco Chica Perez
ECU
+29 s
 Bike DNF 14:48
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Francisco Chica Perez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 José Antonio Ruelas Cantú
MEX
+50 s
 Bike DNF 18:04
Show details
Prediction details: José Antonio Ruelas Cantú

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Nicolas Alejandro Calvopiña Castellano
ECU
+30 s
 Bike DNF 16:50
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Alejandro Calvopiña Castellano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Christiaan Jansen
ARU
+39 s
 Bike DNF 18:08
Show details
Prediction details: Christiaan Jansen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Gerald Rojas Carvajal
CRC
+28 s
 Bike DNF 17:35
Show details
Prediction details: Gerald Rojas Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Jonathan Calderón
ECU
+0 s
 Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Calderón

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Agustín Wendler Kossmann
ARG
+187 s
 Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Agustín Wendler Kossmann

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +187 s
Time: 13:19
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.88 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:19 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Renato Paolo Siacia
ARG
+110 s
 Bike DNF 18:22
Show details
Prediction details: Renato Paolo Siacia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 12:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:02 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Leandro Alfonso Martinez
URU
+58 s
 Bike DNF 20:45
Show details
Prediction details: Leandro Alfonso Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.31 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 David Jose Pardo Benitez
PAR
+119 s
 Bike DNF 18:46
Show details
Prediction details: David Jose Pardo Benitez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +119 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.39 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.