Prediction comparison

Elite Men

12.07.2025 Magog CAN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Magog

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 61/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 81.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error12.6

Mean swim error15.2 s

Mean bike-speed error4.99 km/h

Correct bike groups5/64

No history2

Within the 80% range40.9 %

						Details
1 / 4	Yann Allichon FRA	+31 s +21 s	G2 / G3	14:48 15:21	42:58	Show details Prediction details: Yann Allichon Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 94 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 9.6 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h Running and total Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:58 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km) Total: 42:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 0.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 9	Martin Sobey CAN	+27 s +22 s	G1 / G3	15:14 15:44	43:03	Show details Prediction details: Martin Sobey Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–21 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 9 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 5.4 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.09 km/h Running and total Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km) Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:03
3 / 2	Liam Donnelly CAN	+30 s +32 s	G1 / G3	15:15 15:05	43:04	Show details Prediction details: Liam Donnelly Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–27 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: -2.2 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.86 km/h Running and total Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:04
4 / 30	Ivan Anzaldo ARG	+43 s +34 s	G2 / G3	14:56 17:05	43:06	Show details Prediction details: Ivan Anzaldo Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–17 Top-10 probability: 58 % Result: 30 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 9.0 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.52 km/h Running and total Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 80 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:25 / km) Error: −2:09 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 43:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7	Jérémy Quindos UZB	+16 s +11 s	G1 / G3	15:17 15:38	43:06	Show details Prediction details: Jérémy Quindos Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–13 Top-10 probability: 66 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 5.3 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 61 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.24 km/h Running and total Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:08 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 43:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:06
6 / 3	Braxton Legg USA	+19 s +17 s	G1 / G3	15:21 15:15	43:10	Show details Prediction details: Braxton Legg Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–14 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 3 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 2.3 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.13 km/h Running and total Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 43:10 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Total: 43:10
7 / 31	Luke McCarron IRL	+28 s +23 s	G1 / G4	15:29 16:34	43:18	Show details Prediction details: Luke McCarron Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 4–41 Top-10 probability: 48 % Result: 31 Deviation: -24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 5.4 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 64 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.71 km/h Running and total Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 43:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km) Total: 43:18
8 / 15	Andreas Nikolajsen DEN	+18 s +12 s	G1 / G3	15:38 16:18	43:27	Show details Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–25 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 15 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 6.3 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.24 km/h Running and total Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 43:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km) Total: 43:27
9 / 35	Blake Harris CAN	+24 s +43 s	G1 / G3	15:51 17:22	43:40	Show details Prediction details: Blake Harris Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 11–27 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 35 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -18.9 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 48 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h Running and total Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km) Error: −1:31 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 43:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:40
10 / 6	Daniel Damian CAN	+37 s +30 s	G2 / G3	15:32 15:26	43:42	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Damian Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 10–24 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 6 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.59 km/h Running and total Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:26 (3:05 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 43:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km) Total: 43:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 6.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8	Luke Anthony USA	+40 s +18 s	G2 / G3	15:32 15:42	43:42	Show details Prediction details: Luke Anthony Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 8–33 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 8 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 21.9 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.76 km/h Running and total Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km) Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km) Total: 43:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 9.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5	Blake Bullard USA	+15 s +0 s	G1 / G3	15:58 15:16	43:47	Show details Prediction details: Blake Bullard Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 7–34 Top-10 probability: 25 % Result: 5 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 66 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.51 km/h Running and total Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 43:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Total: 43:47
13 / 23	Aiden Longcroft-Harris CAN	+5 s +10 s	G1 / G3	16:01 16:33	43:50	Show details Prediction details: Aiden Longcroft-Harris Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 7–28 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 23 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: -4.7 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.26 km/h Running and total Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 43:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Total: 43:50
14 / 12	Pavlos Antoniades CAN	+35 s +41 s	G2 / G3	15:43 16:00	43:53	Show details Prediction details: Pavlos Antoniades Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 6–36 Top-10 probability: 21 % Result: 12 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -5.6 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h Running and total Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 43:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Total: 43:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 26	Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella BRA	+29 s +38 s	G1 / G3	16:05 16:43	43:54	Show details Prediction details: Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 17–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -9.4 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 38 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.86 km/h Running and total Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.54 %, Sicherheit 74 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 43:54 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Total: 43:54
16 / 10	Koki Yamamoto JPN	+14 s +15 s	G1 / G3	16:07 15:48	43:56	Show details Prediction details: Koki Yamamoto Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 12–28 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 10 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: -0.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.28 km/h Running and total Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 43:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Total: 43:56
17 / 49	Gaspard Tharreau FRA	+31 s +25 s	G2 / G3	15:48 19:39	43:58	Show details Prediction details: Gaspard Tharreau Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 9–30 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 49 Deviation: -32 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 6.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 57 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.44 km/h Running and total Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (3:56 / km) Error: −3:51 / −0:46 / km Overall prediction: 43:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 0.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17	Satoshi Iwamoto JPN	+23 s +13 s	G1 / G3	16:10 16:21	43:59	Show details Prediction details: Satoshi Iwamoto Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 13–33 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 17 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 9.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 81 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.28 km/h Running and total Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 43:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Total: 43:59
19 / 19	Alvaro Campos Solano CRC	+19 s +30 s	G1 / G3	16:11 16:25	44:00	Show details Prediction details: Alvaro Campos Solano Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 17–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: -11.2 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.94 km/h Running and total Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 44:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:00
20 / 21	Clayton Hutchins CAN	+23 s +25 s	G1 / G3	16:12 16:30	44:01	Show details Prediction details: Clayton Hutchins Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 14–32 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 21 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: -2.4 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.98 km/h Running and total Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 44:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:01
21 / 22	Hokuto Obara JPN	+37 s +30 s	G2 / G3	15:53 16:25	44:03	Show details Prediction details: Hokuto Obara Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 15–37 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 22 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 96 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.56 km/h Running and total Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 44:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Total: 44:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 6.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 57	William Nolet CAN	+48 s +159 s	G3 / G8	15:32 17:15	44:05	Show details Prediction details: William Nolet Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 8–36 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 57 Deviation: -35 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +159 s Fehler: -110.8 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 8 (2 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.94 km/h Running and total Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km) Error: −1:43 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 44:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:42 (43.3 km/h) Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km) Total: 44:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 18 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 11	Gregor Payet LUX	+49 s +16 s	G3 / G3 correct	15:33 15:53	44:06	Show details Prediction details: Gregor Payet Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 10–38 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 11 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 32.8 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.34 km/h Running and total Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 44:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:42 (43.3 km/h) Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 18.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 58	Kenshin Mori JPN	+37 s +27 s	G2 / G7	15:58 18:58	44:08	Show details Prediction details: Kenshin Mori Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 14–40 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: -34 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 9.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.13 km/h Running and total Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 74 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km) Error: −3:00 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Total: 44:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 6.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 13	Theo Marti LUX	+13 s +32 s	G1 / G3	16:19 16:07	44:08	Show details Prediction details: Theo Marti Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 8–40 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 13 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: -19.3 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.83 km/h Running and total Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km) Total: 44:08
26 / 20	Joe Sherman GBR	+19 s +42 s	G1 / G3	16:23 16:28	44:12	Show details Prediction details: Joe Sherman Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 22–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -23.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 59 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h Running and total Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Total: 44:12
27 / 41	Ben Fäh SUI	+7 s +13 s	G1 / G3	16:29 18:32	44:18	Show details Prediction details: Ben Fäh Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 12–38 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 41 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 8:56 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -5.9 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.19 km/h Running and total Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Error: −2:03 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 44:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Total: 44:18
28 / 37	Yuya Kobayashi JPN	+17 s +10 s	G1 / G3	16:29 17:43	44:18	Show details Prediction details: Yuya Kobayashi Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 20–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 6.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.34 km/h Running and total Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 73 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 44:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Total: 44:18
29 / 33	Matthew McGoey USA	+42 s +27 s	G2 / G3	16:30 17:20	44:40	Show details Prediction details: Matthew McGoey Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 15–43 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 33 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.54 km/h Running and total Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 44:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km) Total: 44:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 11.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 1	Porter Middaugh USA	+67 s +42 s	G4 / G3	16:01 15:03	44:45	Show details Prediction details: Porter Middaugh Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 14–51 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 1 Deviation: 29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 24.7 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.23 km/h Running and total Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:03 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 44:45 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Total: 44:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 36.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 29	Tristen Jones CAN	+41 s +39 s	G2 / G4	16:35 16:29	44:45	Show details Prediction details: Tristen Jones Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 15–51 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 29 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 1.9 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.17 km/h Running and total Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Total: 44:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 10.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 43	Charlie Smoak USA	+27 s +53 s	G1 / G4	17:00 18:01	44:49	Show details Prediction details: Charlie Smoak Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 30–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 43 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -26.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.53 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.11 km/h Running and total Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 44:49 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Total: 44:49
33 / 47	Daniel Epp CAN	+66 s +57 s	G4 / G6	16:09 17:07	44:53	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Epp Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 25–48 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: 8.7 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.67 km/h Running and total Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 44:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 35.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 27	James Sikich CAN	+73 s +47 s	G4 / G3	16:15 16:49	44:59	Show details Prediction details: James Sikich Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 23–51 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 27 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 25.6 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.14 km/h Running and total Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:59 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Total: 44:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 42.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 16	Joshua Bird CAN	+2 s +14 s	G1 / G3	17:11 16:19	45:00	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Bird Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 19–44 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +2 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -11.6 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 88 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.22 km/h Running and total Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 45:00 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Total: 45:00
36 / 39	Alexandre Leblanc CAN	+42 s +48 s	G2 / G4	16:53 17:17	45:03	Show details Prediction details: Alexandre Leblanc Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 31–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.84 km/h Running and total Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 45:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Total: 45:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 11.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 34	Nicholas Pilgrim BER	+26 s +35 s	G1 / G3	17:28 17:23	45:17	Show details Prediction details: Nicholas Pilgrim Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 36–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -9.5 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.79 km/h Running and total Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 45:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Total: 45:17
38 / 24	Henry Bristol CAN	+72 s +33 s	G4 / G3	16:37 16:32	45:21	Show details Prediction details: Henry Bristol Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 36–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 38.9 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.9 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.40 km/h Running and total Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 45:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 41.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 59	Owen Schessler USA	+35 s +67 s	G2 / G7	17:13 19:23	45:23	Show details Prediction details: Owen Schessler Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 35–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: -31.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.32 km/h Running and total Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Error: −2:10 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 45:23 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Total: 45:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 40	Adam Janah USA	+73 s +52 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:40 17:25	45:24	Show details Prediction details: Adam Janah Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 29–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 40 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 20.8 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h Running and total Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 45:24 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Total: 45:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 57.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 36	Brett Saunders CAN	+9 s +16 s	G1 / G3	17:38 17:40	45:27	Show details Prediction details: Brett Saunders Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 36–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: -7.0 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.11 km/h Running and total Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 45:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Total: 45:27
42 / 51	Blaise Uglow CAN	+51 s +44 s	G3 / G5	16:55 18:12	45:28	Show details Prediction details: Blaise Uglow Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 26–52 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 51 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.90 km/h Running and total Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km) Error: −1:17 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 45:28 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:42 (43.3 km/h) Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Total: 45:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 20.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 18	Lukas Vadeika CAN	+27 s +23 s	G1 / G3	17:47 16:26	45:36	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Vadeika Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 40–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: 25 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 4.3 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.98 km/h Running and total Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km) Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 45:36 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Total: 45:36
44 / 28	Kyle Boorsma CAN	+94 s +82 s	G6 / G4	14:28 16:17	45:39	Show details Prediction details: Kyle Boorsma Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 17–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: 11.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.2 s Gap behind: 41.2 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h Running and total Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km) Historical basis: 2:52 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Error: −1:49 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 45:39 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:38 (40.4 km/h) Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km) Total: 45:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 63.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 64	Rhys Olson-Keating TRI	+61 s +71 s	G4 / G6	17:00 25:29	45:44	Show details Prediction details: Rhys Olson-Keating Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 40–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 64 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: -9.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.42 km/h Running and total Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 25:29 (5:06 / km) Error: −8:29 / −1:42 / km Overall prediction: 45:44 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Total: 45:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 45.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 38	Trevor Laupland CAN	+28 s +25 s	G1 / G3	18:01 17:51	45:50	Show details Prediction details: Trevor Laupland Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 36–53 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 2.7 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.05 km/h Running and total Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Total: 45:50
47 / 42	Hudson Hamilton USA	+36 s +36 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:08 19:13	46:18	Show details Prediction details: Hudson Hamilton Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 45–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: -0.3 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 96 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 40.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.56 km/h Running and total Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 46:18 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Total: 46:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 44	Carter Stuhlmacher USA	+1 s +12 s	G1 / G3	18:29 18:53	46:18	Show details Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 35–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1 s Time: 8:50 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: -11.0 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.26 km/h Running and total Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 46:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km) Total: 46:18
49 / 46	Oleksii Kolesov CAN	+38 s +40 s	G2 / G4	18:34 18:47	46:44	Show details Prediction details: Oleksii Kolesov Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 48–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 46 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 88 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (14 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.11 km/h Running and total Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 83 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:44 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h) Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Total: 46:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 7.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 62	Alvaro Eugenio Rivero Franco MEX	+64 s +54 s	G4 / G7	18:03 21:26	46:47	Show details Prediction details: Alvaro Eugenio Rivero Franco Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 50–56 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 62 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: 9.7 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.47 km/h Running and total Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:26 (4:17 / km) Error: −3:23 / −0:41 / km Overall prediction: 46:47 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Total: 46:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 48 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 25	Esteban Tibocha COL	+51 s +30 s	G3 / G3 correct	18:27 16:45	47:00	Show details Prediction details: Esteban Tibocha Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 49–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: 26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 20.6 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.11 km/h Running and total Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (3:21 / km) Error: +1:42 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 47:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:42 (43.3 km/h) Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Total: 47:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 34.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 50	Louis Marchand CAN	+47 s +39 s	G3 / G6	18:57 17:25	47:30	Show details Prediction details: Louis Marchand Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 53–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 50 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 8.3 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.76 km/h Running and total Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 47:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:42 (43.3 km/h) Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Total: 47:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 31.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 45	Simon Drolet CAN	+59 s +47 s	G4 / G4 correct	19:06 18:42	47:50	Show details Prediction details: Simon Drolet Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 54–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 45 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 12.1 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.4 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.82 km/h Running and total Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 47:50 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km) Total: 47:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 28.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 48	Connor Oats USA	+85 s +88 s	G6 / G7	16:43 16:31	47:54	Show details Prediction details: Connor Oats Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 47–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +85 s Time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: -3.4 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 9.2 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.65 km/h Running and total Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 47:54 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:38 (40.4 km/h) Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Total: 47:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 68.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 60	Pieter Hoornstra Solano CRC	+80 s +75 s	G6 / G7	18:06 19:39	49:17	Show details Prediction details: Pieter Hoornstra Solano Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 53–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +75 s Fehler: 4.7 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 69 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.7 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.89 km/h Running and total Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (3:56 / km) Error: −1:33 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 49:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:38 (40.4 km/h) Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km) Total: 49:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 64 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 14	Robi Racine CAN	+74 s +44 s	G5 / G3	18:31 16:11	49:33	Show details Prediction details: Robi Racine Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 55–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: 42 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 29.8 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 90 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h Running and total Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 91 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Error: +2:20 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 49:33 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.3 km/h) Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Total: 49:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 58.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 52	Daniel Gossow USA	+52 s +39 s	G3 / G7	21:12 17:33	49:45	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Gossow Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 59–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 52 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 12.7 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 98 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 7.4 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.40 km/h Running and total Run: 21:12 (4:14 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 71 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km) Error: +3:39 / +0:44 / km Overall prediction: 49:45 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:42 (43.3 km/h) Run: 21:12 (4:14 / km) Total: 49:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 21.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 63	Rikigoro Shinozuka MAS	+135 s +85 s	G7 / G9	17:32 20:13	51:53	Show details Prediction details: Rikigoro Shinozuka Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 61–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +135 s Time: 11:04 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: 50.2 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 53.8 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.43 km/h Running and total Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km) Error: −2:41 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 51:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:05 (37.4 km/h) Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km) Total: 51:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 119.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 56	Caden Hubers CAN	+74 s +41 s	G5 / G4	21:04 20:35	52:06	Show details Prediction details: Caden Hubers Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 60–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 56 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 33.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 5.7 s Result: Group 4 (9 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h Running and total Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:35 (4:07 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 52:06 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.3 km/h) Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km) Total: 52:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 58.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 66	Nathan Drouillard CAN	+135 s +163 s	G7 / G11	21:59 23:35	56:20	Show details Prediction details: Nathan Drouillard Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 63–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 66 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +135 s Time: 11:04 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +163 s Fehler: -28.0 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 71 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 41.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 30.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.22 km/h Running and total Run: 21:59 (4:24 / km) Historical basis: 4:25 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 71 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:35 (4:43 / km) Error: −1:36 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 56:20 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:05 (37.4 km/h) Run: 21:59 (4:24 / km) Total: 56:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 119.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 65	Jose Enrique Aponte PUR	+189 s +153 s	G8 / G10	18:09 19:53	57:14	Show details Prediction details: Jose Enrique Aponte Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 64–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 65 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +189 s Time: 11:58 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +153 s Fehler: 36.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 53.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.80 km/h Running and total Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km) Error: −1:44 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 57:14 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:58 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:56 (33.4 km/h) Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km) Total: 57:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:05 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 173.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 32	Jackson Harrell USA	+0 s +31 s	G0 / G3	17:07		Show details Prediction details: Jackson Harrell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 65–65 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (38 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 53	John Reed USA	+68 s +72 s	G4 / G6	18:10		Show details Prediction details: John Reed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 53 Deviation: -53 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -4.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 3.9 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.44 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:31 (43.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 37.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 54	William McElgunn USA	+82 s +56 s	G6 / G7	17:39		Show details Prediction details: William McElgunn Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 54 Deviation: -54 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +82 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: 25.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.19 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:38 (40.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 51.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 55	Gabriel Shreve USA	+25 s +73 s	G1 / G7	17:49		Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Shreve Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 55 Deviation: -55 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +73 s Fehler: -48.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (26 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 44.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 7 (10 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.32 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:19 (44.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 61	Judson Schulz USA	+0 s +119 s	G0 / G8	18:31		Show details Prediction details: Judson Schulz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 66–66 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (2 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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