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Elite Women

12.07.2025 Magog CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Magog

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 65.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.9
Mean swim error21.2 s
Mean bike-speed error3.71 km/h
Correct bike groups3/36
No history5
Within the 80% range48.8 %
Details
1 / 2 Erica Hawley
BER
+25 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 17:21
17:47
 48:45
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:45
2 / 3 Naomi Ruff
USA
+11 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 17:33
17:47
 48:57
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:57
3 / 4 Michelle Magnani
USA
+28 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 17:50
18:03
 49:14
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Magnani

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 49:14
4 / 8 Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott
USA
+26 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 18:18
19:11
 49:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 12
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:42
5 / 10 Chelsea Webber
USA
+30 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 18:36
19:34
 50:00
Show details
Prediction details: Chelsea Webber

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 50:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:00
6 / 9 Sidney Clement
CAN
+4 s
+1 s
G1 / G2
 18:39
19:16
 50:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sidney Clement

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km)
Total: 50:03
7 / 7 Alexandra Campbell
CAN
+13 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 18:44
18:42
 50:08
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Campbell

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–19
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:08
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:08
8 / 1 Joy Gill
USA
+45 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:03
17:20
 50:24
Show details
Prediction details: Joy Gill

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.01 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:24
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 50:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 15 Nataliia Kolesova
CAN
+20 s
+23 s
G1 / G4
 19:27
19:50
 50:51
Show details
Prediction details: Nataliia Kolesova

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -3.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 50:51
10 / 33 Charlotte Brown
NZL
+32 s
+59 s
G1 / G6
 19:29
22:05
 50:53
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Brown

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–20
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -26.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:05 (4:25 / km)
Error: −2:36 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 50:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 50:53
11 / 5 Ellison Wolfe
USA
+57 s
+12 s
G3 / G2
 17:39
18:18
 51:03
Show details
Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–17
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 45.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.44 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.21 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:03
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Total: 51:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 11 Britney Brown
TRI
+12 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 19:43
20:18
 51:07
Show details
Prediction details: Britney Brown

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Total: 51:07
13 / 6 Rachel Werking
USA
+45 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:48
18:19
 51:09
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Werking

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 41.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:09
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 51:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 11.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 21 Emma Olson-Keating
AUS
+25 s
+47 s
G1 / G4
 19:57
21:20
 51:21
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Olson-Keating

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -21.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (4:16 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 51:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Total: 51:21
15 / 14 Beatrice Normand
CAN
+33 s
+31 s
G1 / G4
 20:00
19:43
 51:24
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Normand

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:24
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 51:24
16 / 12 Béatrice Filion
CAN
+57 s
+60 s
G3 / G4
 18:59
19:03
 52:23
Show details
Prediction details: Béatrice Filion

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:23
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Total: 52:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 23 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13 Amara Rae
NZL
+59 s
+60 s
G3 / G4
 19:19
19:13
 52:43
Show details
Prediction details: Amara Rae

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -0.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 21.6 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Emma Jean Neal
CAN
+43 s
+31 s
G2 / G4
 19:23
20:09
 52:44
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jean Neal

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 12.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:44
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 27 Shelby Lajeunesse
CAN
+22 s
+21 s
G1 / G5
 21:26
20:50
 52:50
Show details
Prediction details: Shelby Lajeunesse

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:26 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 21:26 (4:17 / km)
Total: 52:50
20 / 16 Melissa Funes
USA
+49 s
+46 s
G3 / G5
 19:49
18:21
 53:13
Show details
Prediction details: Melissa Funes

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 11–26
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 53:13
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Total: 53:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 15.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 18 Rose-Emanuelle Binette
CAN
+38 s
+37 s
G2 / G4
 19:55
20:27
 53:16
Show details
Prediction details: Rose-Emanuelle Binette

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 53:16
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km)
Total: 53:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25 Anabelle Saindon
CAN
+38 s
+22 s
G2 / G5
 20:27
20:31
 53:48
Show details
Prediction details: Anabelle Saindon

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 15.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:31 (4:06 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 53:48
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Total: 53:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 4.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 32 Astrid Bergman
CAN
+7 s
+9 s
G1 / G5
 22:30
22:17
 53:54
Show details
Prediction details: Astrid Bergman

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 17–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:30 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:17 (4:27 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 53:54
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 22:30 (4:30 / km)
Total: 53:54
24 / 34 Cameron Manes
USA
+99 s
+144 s
G4 / G9
 19:17
19:15
 54:13
Show details
Prediction details: Cameron Manes

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +99 s
Time: 11:42
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: -44.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 9.3 s
Result: Group 9 (3 people)
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 54:13
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:17 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Total: 54:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 65.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 26 Henrika Parviainen
FIN
+34 s
+28 s
G2 / G4
 21:22
22:22
 54:43
Show details
Prediction details: Henrika Parviainen

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 15–29
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:22 (4:28 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 54:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Total: 54:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 19 Maya Reilly
USA
+91 s
+30 s
G4 / G4
correct 		19:51
20:57
 54:47
Show details
Prediction details: Maya Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 61.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (9 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:57 (4:11 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 54:47
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:17 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Total: 54:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 57.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 36 Mia Remorca
USA
+88 s
+63 s
G4 / G7
 20:26
22:18
 55:22
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Remorca

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 28–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 11:31
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 25.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:18 (4:28 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 55:22
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:31 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:17 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Total: 55:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 54.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 35 Valeria Arce Núñez
CRC
+81 s
+95 s
G4 / G8
 20:32
20:28
 55:28
Show details
Prediction details: Valeria Arce Núñez

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 22–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 11:24
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +95 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.6 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 8 (4 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 55:28
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:17 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:06 / km)
Total: 55:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 47.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 39 Jordyn Bandstra
CAN
+41 s
+65 s
G2 / G8
 22:13
22:34
 55:34
Show details
Prediction details: Jordyn Bandstra

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 24–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -23.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 8 (4 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:13 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:34 (4:31 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 55:34
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 22:13 (4:27 / km)
Total: 55:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 29 Ella Spitz
USA
+92 s
+51 s
G4 / G5
 21:09
21:25
 56:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ella Spitz

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 29–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 11:35
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 41.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:09 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:25 (4:17 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 56:05
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:35 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:17 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 21:09 (4:14 / km)
Total: 56:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 58.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 31 Maia Watson
CAN
+151 s
+65 s
G5 / G6
 19:39
20:23
 57:57
Show details
Prediction details: Maia Watson

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 31–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +151 s
Time: 12:34
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 86.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 42.6 s
Gap behind: 19.6 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 57:57
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:34 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:47 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Total: 57:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 117.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 40 Ariana Borbón Quirós
CRC
+108 s
+57 s
G5 / G8
 20:16
23:23
 58:34
Show details
Prediction details: Ariana Borbón Quirós

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 11:51
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 51.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.3 s
Gap behind: 42.6 s
Result: Group 8 (4 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.97 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:23 (4:41 / km)
Error: −3:07 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 58:34
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:51 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:47 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Total: 58:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 74.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 41 Sunnie Leishman
CAN
+171 s
+220 s
G6 / G10
 24:56
21:43
 1:04:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sunnie Leishman

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +171 s
Time: 12:54
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +220 s
Fehler: -49.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.6 s
Gap behind: 53.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:56 (4:59 / km)
Historical basis: 5:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:43 (4:21 / km)
Error: +3:13 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:08
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 12:54 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:21 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 24:56 (4:59 / km)
Total: 1:04:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 137 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 37 Maya Mensen
CAN
+224 s
+169 s
G7 / G9
 23:20
20:48
 1:07:44
Show details
Prediction details: Maya Mensen

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 35–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +224 s
Time: 13:47
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +169 s
Fehler: 54.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 53.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (3 people)
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:20 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Error: +2:32 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:44
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:47 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:41 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 23:20 (4:40 / km)
Total: 1:07:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 190 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 22 María Alejandra Coral Mejia
COL
+37 s
+33 s
G2 / G5
 35:59
19:48
 1:09:20
Show details
Prediction details: María Alejandra Coral Mejia

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 35–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:59 (7:12 / km)
Historical basis: 7:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: +16:11 / +3:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 35:59 (7:12 / km)
Total: 1:09:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 Micah Gay
CAN
+0 s
+39 s
G0 / G5
19:28
Show details
Prediction details: Micah Gay

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 37–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Madeline Gagnon
USA
+0 s
+55 s
G0 / G5
20:23
Show details
Prediction details: Madeline Gagnon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 38–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Emily Pincus
USA
+0 s
+32 s
G0 / G5
20:29
Show details
Prediction details: Emily Pincus

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 39–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:29 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28 Sarah-Maude Levesque
CAN
+96 s
+66 s
G4 / G5
21:13
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah-Maude Levesque

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 11:39
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 30.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:39 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:17 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 62.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30 Dylan Kirchner
USA
+0 s
+64 s
G0 / G5
21:34
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan Kirchner

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 40–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (12 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:34 (4:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 38 Maren York
USA
+0 s
+62 s
G0 / G8
22:15
Show details
Prediction details: Maren York

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 41–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (4 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:15 (4:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.