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Elite Women

23.11.2025 Malecón de Playa Murciélago ECU
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Manta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 72.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.4
Mean swim error33.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.96 km/h
Correct bike groups1/18
No history0
Within the 80% range55.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 6 Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas
MEX
+35 s
+9 s
G3 / G2
 17:09 49:09
Show details
Prediction details: Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 25.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 49:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 30.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+34 s
+0 s
G3 / G1
 17:26 49:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 34.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 49:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 30.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Paula Jara
ECU
+33 s
+13 s
G3 / G2
 17:38 49:38
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Jara

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 20.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 49:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+37 s
+7 s
G3 / G1
 17:46 49:46
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 29.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 49:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 49:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+18 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 18:25 50:12
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 18.3 s
Gap behind: 11.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 50:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:29 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 50:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Cecilia Perez
MEX
+30 s
+1 s
G3 / G1
 18:15 50:15
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Perez

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 28.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 11.5 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 50:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 25.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+41 s
+14 s
G4 / G2
 18:13 50:34
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 27.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:00 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 12
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:38 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 50:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 37.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9 Alexandra Poole
USA
+48 s
+18 s
G5 / G2
 18:56 51:44
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Poole

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.27 %, Sicherheit 0 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 51:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 44.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Isabel Rodriguez Silverio
CUB
+43 s
+14 s
G4 / G3
 20:10 52:31
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Rodriguez Silverio

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 28.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 52:31
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Total: 52:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 39 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 1 Faith Duncan
USA
+92 s
+13 s
G7 / G1
 18:21 53:06
Show details
Prediction details: Faith Duncan

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 11:44
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 79.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.2 s
Gap behind: 9.1 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 53:06
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:44 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:13 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Total: 53:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 88.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 12 Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes
GUA
+71 s
+30 s
G7 / G3
 18:51 53:36
Show details
Prediction details: Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–14
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 11:23
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 41.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.5 s
Gap behind: 10.9 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.59 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 53:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:23 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:13 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Total: 53:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 67.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 10 Manuela Ortega Arteaga
ECU
+36 s
+33 s
G3 / G3
correct 		23:31 55:31
Show details
Prediction details: Manuela Ortega Arteaga

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:31 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 55:31
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 23:31 (4:42 / km)
Total: 55:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 32.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 17 Domenica Tintin Salas
ECU
+36 s
+76 s
G3 / G5
 23:52 55:52
Show details
Prediction details: Domenica Tintin Salas

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -39.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km)
Historical basis: 4:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:44 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 55:52
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km)
Total: 55:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 32.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 16 Claudia Gurri Naranjo
CUB
+52 s
+16 s
G6 / G4
 23:32 58:03
Show details
Prediction details: Claudia Gurri Naranjo

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 11:04
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 36.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:32 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:24 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 58:03
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:39 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 23:32 (4:42 / km)
Total: 58:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 48.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Melanie Agreda Herrera
ECU
+101 s
+38 s
G8 / G4
 20:15 58:20
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Agreda Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 11:53
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 63.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:19 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 58:20
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:53 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:24 (32.1 km/h)
Run: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Total: 58:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 97.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Renata Valentina Oña Paredes
ECU
+82 s
+33 s
G7 / G3
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Prediction details: Renata Valentina Oña Paredes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 49.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.9 s
Gap behind: 10.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:55 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:13 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 78.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Annie Meeder
USA
+0 s
+33 s
G1 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Annie Meeder

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -33.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 18.3 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:55 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 18 Ana Isabella Quingatuña Agudelo
ECU
+58 s
+74 s
G7 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Isabella Quingatuña Agudelo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -16.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 13.5 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:46 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:13 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 53.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.