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Elite Men

28.03.2025 Homestead Miami Speedway USA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Miami

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.03.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 67/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 93.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.8
Mean swim error11.7 s
Mean bike-speed error3.02 km/h
Correct bike groups18/47
No history0
Within the 80% range59.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen
MEX
+37 s
+15 s
G3 / G2
 14:13
15:16
 41:57
Show details
Prediction details: Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:13 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:04 / km)
Error: −1:03 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 41:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:13 (2:51 / km)
Total: 41:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Reese Vannerson
USA
+21 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:27
14:53
 42:07
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:27 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:27 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 2.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Igor Dupuis
FRA
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 14:47
15:10
 42:14
Show details
Prediction details: Igor Dupuis

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:47 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:14
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:47 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:14
4 / 26 Uzziel Valderrabano Chavez
MEX
+40 s
+23 s
G3 / G3
correct 		14:39
16:52
 42:23
Show details
Prediction details: Uzziel Valderrabano Chavez

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–18
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 46.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:39 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:23 / km)
Error: −2:13 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 42:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:39 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Mathis Beaulieu
CAN
+27 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:46
15:23
 42:26
Show details
Prediction details: Mathis Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Martin Sobey
CAN
+29 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:56
15:11
 42:36
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Sobey

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:11 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 10 Daniel Damian
CAN
+32 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:04
15:42
 42:44
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Damian

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 27 Dylan Didier Campa Carranza
MEX
+12 s
+2 s
G1 / G2
 15:22
17:31
 42:49
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan Didier Campa Carranza

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:31 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 42:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:49
9 / 13 Guillaume Hay
FRA
+24 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:10
15:51
 42:50
Show details
Prediction details: Guillaume Hay

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -18.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 6 Braxton Legg
USA
+34 s
+33 s
G3 / G2
 15:16
15:19
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 1–33
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 33 Jesus Gildardo Espiritu
MEX
+24 s
+30 s
G2 / G6
 15:24
16:36
 43:04
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus Gildardo Espiritu

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 1–27
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 43:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 3 Darr Smith
USA
+14 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:42
16:04
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 48.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:09
13 / 31 Blake Bullard
USA
+18 s
+6 s
G1 / G5
 15:45
16:21
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:12
14 / 12 Keller Norland
USA
+22 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:34
15:45
 43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Keller Norland

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 2–30
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -11.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 3.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Clayton Hutchins
CAN
+26 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:35
15:52
 43:15
Show details
Prediction details: Clayton Hutchins

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -4.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 16 Hayden Woodrow
CAN
+20 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:36
16:04
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Hayden Woodrow

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 6–27
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 9 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+36 s
+21 s
G3 / G2
 15:35
15:34
 43:19
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 3–34
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Ben Fäh
SUI
+7 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:01
17:21
 43:28
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Fäh

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 5–34
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 49.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:29 / km)
Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 43:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:28
19 / 21 Matthew McGoey
USA
+34 s
+51 s
G3 / G2
 15:56
16:44
 43:40
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew McGoey

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 10–35
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -17.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 17 Blake Harris
CAN
+32 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:04
16:09
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 25 Maayan Glantz
ISR
+28 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:14
17:11
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Maayan Glantz

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–33
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 38 Cole Jamieson 
USA
+35 s
+11 s
G3 / G2
 16:14
19:33
 43:58
Show details
Prediction details: Cole Jamieson 

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -2.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:33 (3:56 / km)
Error: −3:19 / −0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 43:58
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 15.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 35 Matteo Carlo Perri
ITA
+52 s
+43 s
G4 / G7
 14:58
16:17
 43:59
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Carlo Perri

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 11–26
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 8.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 7 (5 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:16 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 43:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 11 Nicolas Probert Vargas
MEX
+15 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:39
16:38
 44:06
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Probert Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 16–32
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 49.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:21 / km)
Total: 44:06
25 / 4 Seth Rider
USA
+20 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 16:30
16:05
 44:10
Show details
Prediction details: Seth Rider

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 48.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 23 Leandre Binette
CAN
+33 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:33
16:58
 44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Leandre Binette

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 17–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 22.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:13
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 14 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+53 s
+53 s
G4 / G2
 15:15
16:00
 44:16
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 9–36
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 49.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:15 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 44:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 15:15 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 33.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 19 Porter Middaugh
USA
+63 s
+58 s
G4 / G2
 15:18
16:16
 44:19
Show details
Prediction details: Porter Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 12–39
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:19
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 43.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 18 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+13 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 16:57
16:14
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 21–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:24
30 / 37 Eyal Weinstein
ISR
+39 s
+56 s
G3 / G7
 16:46
16:48
 44:30
Show details
Prediction details: Eyal Weinstein

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 27–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -16.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 7 (5 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:46 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:46 (3:22 / km)
Total: 44:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 43 Esteban Tibocha
COL
+39 s
+47 s
G3 / G6
 16:47
18:28
 44:31
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Tibocha

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 27–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -8.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 44:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:22 / km)
Total: 44:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 42 Blaise Uglow
CAN
+34 s
+54 s
G3 / G6
 16:49
17:59
 44:33
Show details
Prediction details: Blaise Uglow

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 25–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -20.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 44:33
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 36 Dillon Longo
CAN
+33 s
+45 s
G2 / G6
 16:54
17:09
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Dillon Longo

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 25–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -11.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 22 Chris Gregor
CAN
+15 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:07
17:48
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Gregor

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 14–42
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 49.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:26 / km)
Total: 44:34
35 / 24 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+47 s
+50 s
G4 / G4
correct 		15:35
15:57
 44:36
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 12–34
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 46.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 28.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 41 Omer Zafrir
ISR
+22 s
+19 s
G2 / G6
 17:20
17:54
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Omer Zafrir

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 20–41
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:29 / km)
Total: 45:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 3.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 45 Ryan Lund
USA
+57 s
+60 s
G4 / G7
 16:06
18:22
 45:07
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Lund

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 28–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 7 (5 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:41 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 45:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 37.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 32 Henry Bristol
CAN
+58 s
+56 s
G4 / G6
 16:08
16:32
 45:09
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Bristol

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 22–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:09
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 38.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 29 Brett Saunders
CAN
+5 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 17:48
17:52
 45:15
Show details
Prediction details: Brett Saunders

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 29–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:10 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 45:15
40 / 34 Lukas Vadeika
CAN
+38 s
+30 s
G3 / G4
 17:50
17:45
 45:34
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Vadeika

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 37–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:34
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:35 / km)
Total: 45:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 47 Alain Brian Fernández Pérez
CUB
+41 s
+74 s
G3 / G8
 18:07
19:09
 45:51
Show details
Prediction details: Alain Brian Fernández Pérez

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 34–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -33.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:51 / km)
Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 45:51
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:03 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:38 / km)
Total: 45:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 28 Almog Elazzary
ISR
+51 s
+24 s
G4 / G2
 16:55
17:42
 45:56
Show details
Prediction details: Almog Elazzary

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 34–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 27.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 47.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:55 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 16:55 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 40 Samuel Beaulieu
CAN
+65 s
+74 s
G4 / G7
 17:26
17:09
 46:27
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 40–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -9.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 8.6 s
Result: Group 7 (5 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:27
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 45.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 30 Hudson Hamilton
USA
+21 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:24
18:05
 48:04
Show details
Prediction details: Hudson Hamilton

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 43–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -17.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 48.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:24 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.52 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:38 / km)
Error: +2:19 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 48:04
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:07 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 20:24 (4:06 / km)
Total: 48:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 39 José Eduardo Castaño López
MEX
+74 s
+28 s
G5 / G6
 16:39
17:39
 48:31
Show details
Prediction details: José Eduardo Castaño López

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 41–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 45.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -2.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.6 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 6 (7 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:31
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:21 / km)
Total: 48:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 54.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 46 Connor Oats
USA
+95 s
+87 s
G6 / G8
 16:38
16:42
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Connor Oats

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 45–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 75.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 44 Noah Shlesinger
USA
+79 s
+82 s
G5 / G7
 17:31
18:14
 49:23
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Shlesinger

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 45–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 15.5 s
Result: Group 7 (5 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:23
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:31 / km)
Total: 49:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 60.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.