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Elite Women

28.03.2025 Homestead Miami Speedway USA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Miami

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.03.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 63/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 85.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.3
Mean swim error18.5 s
Mean bike-speed error3.87 km/h
Correct bike groups16/60
No history1
Within the 80% range45.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Gwen Jorgensen
USA
+17 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:15
16:58
 46:16
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:16
2 / 3 Danielle Orie
USA
+22 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:01
17:13
 47:02
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:02
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:02
3 / 7 Erica Hawley
BER
+21 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:06
17:24
 47:07
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 47:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:07
4 / 13 Maïra Carreau
CAN
+18 s
+36 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:30
18:01
 47:31
Show details
Prediction details: Maïra Carreau

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -18.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:31 / km)
Total: 47:31
5 / 5 Naomi Ruff
USA
+13 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:58
17:17
 47:59
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 47:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Total: 47:59
6 / 12 Sophia Howell
CAN
+11 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:07
17:51
 48:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Howell

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:38 / km)
Total: 48:08
7 / 28 Dana Prikrylova
CZE
+19 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:16
18:53
 48:17
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Prikrylova

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 10–21
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:16 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:16 (3:40 / km)
Total: 48:17
8 / 10 Molly Lakustiak
CAN
+49 s
+29 s
G4 / G1
 16:58
17:44
 48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Molly Lakustiak

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 1.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:44 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6 Gina Sereno
USA
+32 s
+0 s
G3 / G1
 17:01
17:15
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 31.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:25 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 17 Noemie Beaulieu
CAN
+13 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:31
18:12
 48:32
Show details
Prediction details: Noemie Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:43 / km)
Total: 48:32
11 / 4 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+40 s
+31 s
G3 / G1
 17:07
17:16
 48:36
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–20
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 11 Ellison Wolfe
USA
+64 s
+20 s
G5 / G1
 17:06
17:43
 48:52
Show details
Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–24
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 44.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:52
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:42 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 39.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 27 Livia Wespe
SUI
+46 s
+43 s
G4 / G2
 17:27
18:24
 48:57
Show details
Prediction details: Livia Wespe

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 2.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 2 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+32 s
+12 s
G3 / G1
 17:28
17:02
 48:57
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–23
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Heidi Juránková
CZE
+25 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:56
17:35
 48:57
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Juránková

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 16–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:56 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:32 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 48:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:56 (3:48 / km)
Total: 48:57
16 / 19 Dominika Jamnicky
CAN
+32 s
+29 s
G3 / G1
 17:53
18:12
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Dominika Jamnicky

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 2.6 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 18 Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott
USA
+33 s
+15 s
G3 / G1
 17:54
18:10
 49:23
Show details
Prediction details: Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 34 Amanda Moro
BRA
+57 s
+42 s
G4 / G2
 18:10
19:23
 49:40
Show details
Prediction details: Amanda Moro

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 19–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 14.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:54 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 49:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:39 / km)
Total: 49:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 8 Mercedes Romero Orozco
MEX
+34 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 18:14
17:25
 49:43
Show details
Prediction details: Mercedes Romero Orozco

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 11–33
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 15.8 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 8.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 14 Josephine Seerig
GER
+18 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:46
17:58
 49:47
Show details
Prediction details: Josephine Seerig

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–45
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:48 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 49:47
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:58 / km)
Total: 49:47
21 / 29 Zoe Adam
PUR
+12 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:48
18:55
 49:49
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Adam

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.28 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:48 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:48 (3:59 / km)
Total: 49:49
22 / 31 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+13 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:52
19:26
 49:53
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 24–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:52 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:52 (3:59 / km)
Total: 49:53
23 / 24 Mia Wentzy
USA
+49 s
+12 s
G4 / G1
 18:24
18:43
 49:54
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Wentzy

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 36.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:24 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:54
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:24 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 22 Chelsea Webber
USA
+14 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:58
18:25
 49:59
Show details
Prediction details: Chelsea Webber

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 22–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 49:59
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:01 / km)
Total: 49:59
25 / 43 Ava Pfaff
USA
+51 s
+24 s
G4 / G1
 18:34
20:56
 50:04
Show details
Prediction details: Ava Pfaff

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 23–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 26.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (4:12 / km)
Error: −2:22 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 50:04
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:44 / km)
Total: 50:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 25.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 26 Annie Fuller
USA
+42 s
+15 s
G3 / G1
 18:35
18:47
 50:04
Show details
Prediction details: Annie Fuller

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 15–38
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:44 / km)
Total: 50:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 15 Michelle Stratton
USA
+53 s
+36 s
G4 / G1
 18:42
17:58
 50:12
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Stratton

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:42 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:42 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 28.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 39 Marley Andelman
USA
+57 s
+41 s
G4 / G2
 18:46
19:59
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marley Andelman

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 28–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:46 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 32.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 30 Alice Alessandri
ITA
+34 s
+41 s
G3 / G1
 18:53
19:06
 50:22
Show details
Prediction details: Alice Alessandri

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 21–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:48 / km)
Total: 50:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 21 Gillian Cridge
USA
+40 s
+34 s
G3 / G1
 19:03
18:24
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Gillian Cridge

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 23–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 14.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 16 Julia Visgueiro
BRA
+33 s
+5 s
G3 / G1
 19:08
18:01
 50:37
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Visgueiro

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 23–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 27.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.78 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:37
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:51 / km)
Total: 50:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 36 Faith Dasso
USA
+26 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 19:39
20:09
 50:37
Show details
Prediction details: Faith Dasso

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 17–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -0.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:03 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:32 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 19:39 (3:57 / km)
Total: 50:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 33 Cara Macdonald
CAN
+25 s
+27 s
G2 / G1
 19:44
19:51
 50:42
Show details
Prediction details: Cara Macdonald

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 19–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:44 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:32 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 19:44 (3:58 / km)
Total: 50:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 0.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 35 Britney Brown
TRI
+31 s
+13 s
G3 / G1
 19:17
19:53
 50:46
Show details
Prediction details: Britney Brown

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 22–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 17.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (4:00 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:52 / km)
Total: 50:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 25 Weronika Ptaszyńska
POL
+45 s
+38 s
G4 / G1
 19:38
18:50
 51:08
Show details
Prediction details: Weronika Ptaszyńska

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 18–50
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:38 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 19:38 (3:57 / km)
Total: 51:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 20 Maite Küstner
GER
+51 s
+24 s
G4 / G1
 19:49
18:20
 51:19
Show details
Prediction details: Maite Küstner

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 37–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:49 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:41 / km)
Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 51:19
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 19:49 (3:59 / km)
Total: 51:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 25.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 37 Julia Kekkonen
FIN
+62 s
+43 s
G5 / G2
 19:37
19:45
 51:23
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Kekkonen

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 32–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:37 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:42 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 19:37 (3:56 / km)
Total: 51:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 37.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 45 Juliette Chenail-Lafond
CAN
+18 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		21:27
20:59
 51:28
Show details
Prediction details: Juliette Chenail-Lafond

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 36–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:27 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:59 (4:13 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:28
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 21:27 (4:18 / km)
Total: 51:28
39 / 51 Camille Buchanan
USA
+42 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 20:06
21:24
 51:35
Show details
Prediction details: Camille Buchanan

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 30–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:06 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:24 (4:18 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 20:06 (4:02 / km)
Total: 51:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 40 Hannah Ye
USA
+50 s
+32 s
G4 / G1
 20:25
20:33
 51:55
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Ye

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 41–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:25 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:08 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 20:25 (4:06 / km)
Total: 51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 25 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 47 Heidi Henry
CAN
+57 s
+19 s
G4 / G1
 20:32
21:06
 52:02
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Henry

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 37–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 38.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:06 (4:14 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:02
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:07 / km)
Total: 52:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 32 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 57 Katie McCune
USA
+78 s
+53 s
G7 / G5
 17:10
18:07
 52:11
Show details
Prediction details: Katie McCune

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 18–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 57
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 25.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:11
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:32 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:27 / km)
Total: 52:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 53.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 32 Alexa Magallon
SUI
+70 s
+33 s
G6 / G1
 18:41
19:35
 52:12
Show details
Prediction details: Alexa Magallon

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 31–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 10:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 36.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:41 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:35 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:21 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:41 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 44.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 60 Franziska Neck
GER
+39 s
+45 s
G3 / G4
 20:44
21:44
 52:13
Show details
Prediction details: Franziska Neck

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 42–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 60
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:44 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:44 (4:22 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:13
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 20:44 (4:10 / km)
Total: 52:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 13.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 49 Jenna Buchanan
USA
+46 s
+45 s
G4 / G2
 20:59
20:56
 52:29
Show details
Prediction details: Jenna Buchanan

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 45–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:59 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (4:12 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:29
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 20:59 (4:13 / km)
Total: 52:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 59 Isabella Fernandez
PUR
+38 s
+57 s
G3 / G4
 21:28
21:44
 52:57
Show details
Prediction details: Isabella Fernandez

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 46–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 59
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -18.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:28 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:44 (4:22 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:57
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 21:28 (4:19 / km)
Total: 52:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 48 Sarah Plant
USA
+44 s
+27 s
G3 / G1
 21:33
21:14
 53:02
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Plant

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 48–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:33 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:14 (4:16 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:02
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 21:33 (4:20 / km)
Total: 53:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 50 Shelby Lajeunesse
CAN
+30 s
+25 s
G3 / G1
 21:35
21:37
 53:04
Show details
Prediction details: Shelby Lajeunesse

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 39–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:35 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:37 (4:20 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 53:04
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 21:35 (4:20 / km)
Total: 53:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 42 Sofia De Rosas
ARG
+44 s
+21 s
G3 / G1
 21:35
20:55
 53:04
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia De Rosas

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 44–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (41 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:35 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (4:12 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 53:04
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 21:35 (4:20 / km)
Total: 53:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 41 Laura Mathews
USA
+86 s
+34 s
G7 / G2
 19:47
20:06
 54:48
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Mathews

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 42–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 52.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:47 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 54:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:32 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 19:47 (3:58 / km)
Total: 54:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 61.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 44 Sara Melitta Gimena Schümmelfeder
ESP
+78 s
+37 s
G7 / G2
 19:52
20:30
 54:53
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Melitta Gimena Schümmelfeder

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 45–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 40.8 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:52 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 (4:07 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 54:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:32 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 19:52 (3:59 / km)
Total: 54:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 52.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 61 Tyler Kovak
USA
+81 s
+42 s
G7 / G4
 19:55
22:44
 54:56
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Kovak

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 48–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 61
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 38.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:55 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:44 (4:34 / km)
Error: −2:49 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 54:56
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:32 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 19:55 (4:00 / km)
Total: 54:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 55.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 38 Gabrielle Lemes
BRA
+90 s
+37 s
G7 / G2
 20:07
19:41
 55:08
Show details
Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 44–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +90 s
Time: 11:14
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 52.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 29.9 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:57 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 55:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:14 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:32 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:02 / km)
Total: 55:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 64.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 54 Valentina Sofia Negron
PUR
+82 s
+57 s
G7 / G4
 20:32
20:12
 55:33
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Sofia Negron

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 47–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 25.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:32 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:12 (4:03 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 55:33
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:32 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 20:32 (4:07 / km)
Total: 55:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 57.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 46 Anna Zehnder
SUI
+144 s
+77 s
G9 / G4
 17:13
18:36
 56:49
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Zehnder

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 56–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +144 s
Time: 12:08
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 67.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 24.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -8.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 56:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:08 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:12 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 56:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 119.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 58 Kristina Vestman
SWE
+119 s
+60 s
G8 / G4
 21:30
21:20
 1:00:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kristina Vestman

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 59–59
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 58
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +119 s
Time: 11:43
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 59.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 29.9 s
Gap behind: 24.7 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -8.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:30 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (4:17 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:28
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:43 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:58 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 21:30 (4:19 / km)
Total: 1:00:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 94.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 53 María Alejandra Coral Mejia
COL
+49 s
+40 s
G4 / G4
correct 		35:52
20:07
 1:07:22
Show details
Prediction details: María Alejandra Coral Mejia

Placement

Prediction: 57
80% range: 60–60
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:52 (7:12 / km)
Historical basis: 7:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:07 (4:02 / km)
Error: +15:45 / +3:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:07:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 35:52 (7:12 / km)
Total: 1:07:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Joy Gill
USA
+0 s
+52 s
G0 / G3
17:10
Show details
Prediction details: Joy Gill

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 61–61
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 52 Grace Busch
USA
+50 s
+54 s
G4 / G4
correct
19:34
Show details
Prediction details: Grace Busch

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -52

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -4.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:33 (39.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 25 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 55 Maddie Perkins
USA
+12 s
+48 s
G1 / G4
20:10
Show details
Prediction details: Maddie Perkins

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -55

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 56 Eliska Rihova
CZE
+36 s
+53 s
G3 / G4
20:46
Show details
Prediction details: Eliska Rihova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 56
Deviation: -56

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -17.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 11 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.