Prediction comparison

Elite Men

31.05.2025 SALINAS ECU

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Salinas

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.05.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 64/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 87.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.1

Mean swim error15.7 s

Mean bike-speed error2.47 km/h

Correct bike groups15/38

No history1

Within the 80% range53.8 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Luke Anthony USA	+38 s +16 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:36 13:51	44:55	Show details Prediction details: Luke Anthony Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–22 Top-10 probability: 69 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 21.5 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h Running and total Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:51 (2:46 / km) Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 44:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 22.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3	Erik Yamir Ramos Croda MEX	+36 s +26 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:39 14:07	44:58	Show details Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–19 Top-10 probability: 60 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 10.4 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.42 km/h Running and total Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 87 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:07 (2:49 / km) Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 44:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 21 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 16	Fernando Jacome CHI	+26 s +17 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:40 15:03	44:59	Show details Prediction details: Fernando Jacome Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–10 Top-10 probability: 94 % Result: 16 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 8.5 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:03 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 10.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 12	Thomas Francisco Chica Perez ECU	+32 s +48 s	G2 / G3	15:40 14:20	44:59	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Francisco Chica Perez Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–20 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 12 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -15.7 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 50 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 3.6 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:20 (2:52 / km) Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 44:59 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 16.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 15	Matias Sebastian Bravo Delgado ECU	+28 s +30 s	G2 / G3	15:45 14:23	45:04	Show details Prediction details: Matias Sebastian Bravo Delgado Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 15 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: -2.4 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:23 (2:53 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 45:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Total: 45:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 12.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2	Gabriel Terán Carvajal ECU	+12 s +7 s	G1 / G2	15:49 13:52	45:05	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Terán Carvajal Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 2 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 4.5 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 87 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 4.9 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h Running and total Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 74 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:52 (2:46 / km) Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 45:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h) Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km) Total: 45:05
7 / 6	Blake Harris CAN	+27 s +16 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:11 14:14	45:30	Show details Prediction details: Blake Harris Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–14 Top-10 probability: 66 % Result: 6 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 11.2 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h Running and total Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (2:51 / km) Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 45:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Total: 45:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 11.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8	Ramón Armando Matute ECU	+7 s +0 s	G1 / G2	16:19 14:30	45:35	Show details Prediction details: Ramón Armando Matute Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 4–13 Top-10 probability: 74 % Result: 8 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 8:53 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 7.0 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.20 km/h Running and total Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:30 (2:54 / km) Error: +1:49 / +0:22 / km Overall prediction: 45:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h) Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:35
9 / 4	Tristen Jones CAN	+36 s +8 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:28 14:08	45:47	Show details Prediction details: Tristen Jones Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 9–20 Top-10 probability: 25 % Result: 4 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 28.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.00 km/h Running and total Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 71 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:08 (2:50 / km) Error: +2:20 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 45:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Total: 45:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 21 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 27	David Hernandez Muñoz CRC	+18 s +27 s	G2 / G3	16:29 16:01	45:48	Show details Prediction details: David Hernandez Muñoz Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 41 % Result: 27 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -8.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h Running and total Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 45:48 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Total: 45:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 2.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 18	Ivan Anzaldo ARG	+43 s +34 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:06 14:46	46:12	Show details Prediction details: Ivan Anzaldo Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 4–28 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 18 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 9.3 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.60 km/h Running and total Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km) Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 46:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Total: 46:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 27.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 25	Matheus Campos Correa BRA	+16 s +15 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:55 15:52	46:14	Show details Prediction details: Matheus Campos Correa Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 3–27 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 25 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 1.4 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 52 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.9 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 46:14 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Total: 46:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 26	Dillon Longo CAN	+36 s +29 s	G2 / G3	16:56 15:52	46:15	Show details Prediction details: Dillon Longo Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 14–22 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 26 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 7.0 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 66 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h Running and total Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 46:15 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Total: 46:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 20.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 13	João Teixeira Alvares BRA	+36 s +16 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:57 14:53	46:16	Show details Prediction details: João Teixeira Alvares Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 14–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 19.9 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.6 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.24 km/h Running and total Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 84 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km) Error: +2:04 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 46:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km) Total: 46:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 20.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19	William Nolet CAN	+46 s +35 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:15 15:01	46:21	Show details Prediction details: William Nolet Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 6–29 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 19 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 11.4 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 7.8 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.71 km/h Running and total Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:01 (3:00 / km) Error: +1:14 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 46:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Total: 46:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 25 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 23	Thiago Gomide Moreira BRA	+27 s +35 s	G2 / G3	17:03 15:12	46:22	Show details Prediction details: Thiago Gomide Moreira Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 13–25 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 23 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -7.6 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h Running and total Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km) Error: +1:51 / +0:22 / km Overall prediction: 46:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Total: 46:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 12 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 17	Joshua Bird CAN	+3 s +1 s	G1 / G2	17:14 15:13	46:30	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Bird Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 11–22 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 17 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 8:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 52 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Error: +2:01 / +0:24 / km Overall prediction: 46:30 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h) Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Total: 46:30
18 / 20	Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki BRA	+31 s +8 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:14 15:34	46:33	Show details Prediction details: Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 14–28 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 20 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 23.1 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h Running and total Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Error: +1:40 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 46:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Total: 46:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 15.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 22	Filip Tlamka CZE	+42 s +29 s	G3 / G1	16:38 16:00	46:44	Show details Prediction details: Filip Tlamka Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 10–27 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 22 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 13.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 44.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.82 km/h Running and total Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.42 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 46:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Total: 46:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 26.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 10	Julio Monteiro Martins BRA	+37 s +19 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:25 14:51	46:44	Show details Prediction details: Julio Monteiro Martins Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 19–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 17.5 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 76 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km) Error: +2:34 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 46:44 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Total: 46:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 21.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 30	Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva BRA	+9 s +13 s	G1 / G3	17:33 16:17	46:49	Show details Prediction details: Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 4–30 Top-10 probability: 25 % Result: 30 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 8:55 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -3.9 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 87 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 41.3 km/h Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h Running and total Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 68 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Error: +1:16 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 46:49 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h) Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km) Total: 46:49
22 / 21	Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella BRA	+21 s +13 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:33 15:45	46:52	Show details Prediction details: Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 5–31 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 21 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 7.5 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 94 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h Running and total Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 1.80 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Error: +1:48 / +0:22 / km Overall prediction: 46:52 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km) Total: 46:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 5.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 5	Daniel Epp CAN	+57 s +22 s	G4 / G2	16:04 14:14	46:55	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Epp Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 9–29 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 5 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 34.7 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 7.9 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.96 km/h Running and total Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 53 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (2:51 / km) Error: +1:50 / +0:22 / km Overall prediction: 46:55 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h) Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Total: 46:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 17.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +39.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 28	Shavit Haiat ISR	+46 s +32 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:49 16:10	46:55	Show details Prediction details: Shavit Haiat Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 15–26 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 28 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 13.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.55 km/h Running and total Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:10 (3:14 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 46:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km) Total: 46:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 24.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 11	Martin Garcia ECU	+46 s +57 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:23 14:22	47:29	Show details Prediction details: Martin Garcia Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 10–30 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 11 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -11.1 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.30 km/h Running and total Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (2:52 / km) Error: +3:01 / +0:36 / km Overall prediction: 47:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Total: 47:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:08 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 24.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 14	Nicolas Alejandro Calvopiña Castellano ECU	+54 s +34 s	G4 / G3	16:52 14:25	47:43	Show details Prediction details: Nicolas Alejandro Calvopiña Castellano Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 12–33 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 14 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 20.2 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.8 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 43.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.35 km/h Running and total Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:25 (2:53 / km) Error: +2:27 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 47:43 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:54 (40.1 km/h) Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km) Total: 47:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 38.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 32	Jorge Raul Cabinal Gramajo GUA	+46 s +35 s	G3 / G5	17:49 16:04	47:55	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Raul Cabinal Gramajo Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 23–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 10.5 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.30 km/h Running and total Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 47:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Total: 47:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 30.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 29	Pedro Felipe Souza Fernandes Silva BRA	+26 s +15 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:42 16:47	48:01	Show details Prediction details: Pedro Felipe Souza Fernandes Silva Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 25–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 11.0 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 91 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (16 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 41.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (15 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h Running and total Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km) Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 48:01 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.7 km/h) Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Total: 48:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 10.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 7	Gabriel Lecheta BRA	+75 s +59 s	G6 / G3	15:41 13:54	48:58	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Lecheta Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 9–34 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 7 Deviation: 22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +75 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: 16.3 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.87 km/h Running and total Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:54 (2:47 / km) Error: +1:47 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 48:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h) Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km) Total: 48:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 59.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 33	Allan Naranjo Avendaño CRC	+67 s +89 s	G5 / G8	16:50 16:00	49:37	Show details Prediction details: Allan Naranjo Avendaño Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 19–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: -22.1 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 7.4 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h Running and total Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 49:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.9 km/h) Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Total: 49:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 51.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 31	Juan Manuel Cordoba Blanco CRC	+65 s +64 s	G5 / G6	17:27 15:31	50:14	Show details Prediction details: Juan Manuel Cordoba Blanco Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 27–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 9:51 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: 0.6 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 64 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.9 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h Running and total Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 50:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.9 km/h) Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km) Total: 50:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 49.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 24	Adam Janah USA	+78 s +56 s	G6 / G1	17:31 16:00	50:48	Show details Prediction details: Adam Janah Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 30–35 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +78 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: 21.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.98 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -7.99 km/h Running and total Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Error: +1:31 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 50:48 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h) Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Total: 50:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 62.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 39	Oscar Alejandro Gramajo Xanté GUA	+42 s +92 s	G3 / G10	20:45 20:50	50:51	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Alejandro Gramajo Xanté Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 32–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: -50.4 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 40.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.06 km/h Running and total Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 50:51 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:19 (40.9 km/h) Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Total: 50:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 26.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 36	Victor Aurelio Feliz Feliz DOM	+74 s +77 s	G6 / G7	17:53 17:57	51:10	Show details Prediction details: Victor Aurelio Feliz Feliz Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 28–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: -2.7 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.4 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h Running and total Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 51:10 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h) Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km) Total: 51:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 58.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 37	Carlos Jesus Quintanilla Vasquez GUA	+92 s +163 s	G7 / G11	17:24 17:23	52:01	Show details Prediction details: Carlos Jesus Quintanilla Vasquez Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 31–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +163 s Fehler: -71.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 7.7 s Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h Running and total Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 52:01 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.9 km/h) Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Total: 52:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 76.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 34	Joseph Wilwerding USA	+120 s +96 s	G7 / G6	17:39 17:22	52:16	Show details Prediction details: Joseph Wilwerding Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 36–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +120 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: 24.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 20.6 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.92 km/h Running and total Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 52:16 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.9 km/h) Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km) Total: 52:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 104.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 35	Martin Eduardo Castro Bravo ECU	+122 s +148 s	G7 / G9	19:29 16:04	54:06	Show details Prediction details: Martin Eduardo Castro Bravo Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 38–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +122 s Time: 10:48 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +148 s Fehler: -26.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.26 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h Running and total Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Error: +3:25 / +0:41 / km Overall prediction: 54:06 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.9 km/h) Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Total: 54:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 106.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Kyle Boorsma CAN	+0 s +68 s	G0 / G3	14:18		Show details Prediction details: Kyle Boorsma Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 39–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:46 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 14:18 (2:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 38	Pether Anderson Alava Lucas ECU	+99 s +117 s	G7 / G11	17:52		Show details Prediction details: Pether Anderson Alava Lucas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 38 Deviation: -38 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +99 s Time: 10:25 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: -17.6 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.7 s Gap behind: 20.6 s Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:35 (36.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 84 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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