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Elite Women

31.05.2025 SALINAS ECU
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Salinas

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.05.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 64/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.4
Mean swim error32.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.91 km/h
Correct bike groups8/17
No history0
Within the 80% range82.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Chelsea Webber
USA
+14 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:26
16:50
 48:50
Show details
Prediction details: Chelsea Webber

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 48:50
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:09 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:50
2 / 4 Raquel Solis
CRC
+16 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:49
17:03
 49:13
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Solis

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -12.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:46 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 49:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:09 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 49:13
3 / 5 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:30
17:10
 49:54
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: +2:20 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 49:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:09 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Total: 49:54
4 / 1 Elizabeth Bravo
ECU
+29 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 17:21
15:53
 49:56
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Bravo

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -2.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 49:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:03 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Michelle Magnani
USA
+32 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 17:50
16:22
 50:25
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Magnani

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 2.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 50:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:03 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 12.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Paula Jara
ECU
+32 s
+70 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:04
16:44
 50:39
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Jara

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: -37.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:03 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 50:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Luma Guillen
BRA
+38 s
+29 s
G3 / G1
 17:42
17:36
 51:33
Show details
Prediction details: Luma Guillen

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.25 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:13 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 51:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 18.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+26 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 20:03
17:31
 52:38
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:03 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: +2:32 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 52:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:03 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 20:03 (4:01 / km)
Total: 52:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12 Stefania Salazar
TRI
+57 s
+91 s
G4 / G3
 19:19
19:40
 53:55
Show details
Prediction details: Stefania Salazar

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -33.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:39 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Total: 53:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 38 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 9 Gabrielle Lemes
BRA
+43 s
+89 s
G4 / G3
 19:43
17:06
 54:19
Show details
Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -46.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Error: +2:37 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 54:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:39 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Total: 54:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes
GUA
+53 s
+88 s
G4 / G3
 20:49
18:41
 55:25
Show details
Prediction details: Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -35.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Error: +2:08 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 55:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:39 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Total: 55:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 33.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16 Mayte Soledad Moposita Echanique
ECU
+56 s
+123 s
G4 / G4
correct 		20:50
21:05
 55:26
Show details
Prediction details: Mayte Soledad Moposita Echanique

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +123 s
Fehler: -67.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 (4:13 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 55:26
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:39 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Total: 55:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 36.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 15 Daniela Valentina Lincango Guanamarca
ECU
+46 s
+122 s
G4 / G4
correct 		22:37
20:48
 57:13
Show details
Prediction details: Daniela Valentina Lincango Guanamarca

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +122 s
Fehler: -76.5 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.41 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 7.4 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Error: +1:49 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 57:13
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:39 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km)
Total: 57:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 17 Ariana Borbón Quirós
CRC
+73 s
+91 s
G5 / G5
correct 		19:53
21:22
 59:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ariana Borbón Quirós

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -18.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Error: −1:29 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 59:30
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:24 (31.2 km/h)
Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Total: 59:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 53.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 13 Melanie Agreda Herrera
ECU
+68 s
+104 s
G5 / G4
 20:36
19:01
 1:00:13
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Agreda Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 10:57
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -36.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:36 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.95 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:13
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:24 (31.2 km/h)
Run: 20:36 (4:07 / km)
Total: 1:00:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 48.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 14 Mayda Del Milagro Hernandez
GUA
+96 s
+224 s
G6 / G6
correct 		20:09
18:02
 1:01:24
Show details
Prediction details: Mayda Del Milagro Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 11:25
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +224 s
Fehler: -128.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:24
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:39 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:01:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 76.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 11 Ella Spitz
USA
+94 s
+74 s
G6 / G3
 21:08
19:08
 1:02:23
Show details
Prediction details: Ella Spitz

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 11:23
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 19.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: +2:00 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:23
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:23 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:39 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Total: 1:02:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 74.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.