Prediction comparison

Elite Men

02.11.2025 Viña del Mar CHI

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Vina del Mar

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 67/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 93.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error11.8

Mean swim error22.5 s

Mean bike-speed error4.01 km/h

Correct bike groups23/63

No history0

Within the 80% range63.5 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 5	Paul Georgenthum FRA	+18 s +53 s	G3 / G2	14:35 14:54	40:10	Show details Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–9 Top-10 probability: 96 % Result: 5 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -35.5 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 29 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h Running and total Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (2:59 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 40:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km) Total: 40:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 8.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 10	Thomas Hattee GBR	+23 s +10 s	G3 / G1	14:47 15:55	40:22	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Hattee Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 10 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 13.4 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.36 km/h Running and total Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km) Historical basis: 2:56 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 40:22 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km) Total: 40:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 10 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Blake Bullard USA	+40 s +13 s	G2 / G1	14:58 15:21	40:32	Show details Prediction details: Blake Bullard Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–32 Top-10 probability: 45 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 27.0 s H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.84 km/h Running and total Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 40:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km) Total: 40:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 31.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1	Andres Gras CHI	+25 s +22 s	G3 / G1	15:22 15:04	40:57	Show details Prediction details: Andres Gras Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–22 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 1 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 2.8 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 1.25 %, Sicherheit 92 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.06 km/h Running and total Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 73 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 40:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Total: 40:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 15.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6	Guillaume Hay FRA	+26 s +79 s	G3 / G2	15:26 14:56	41:01	Show details Prediction details: Guillaume Hay Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–19 Top-10 probability: 55 % Result: 6 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: -52.6 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 76 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.30 km/h Running and total Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 75 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:56 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 41:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km) Total: 41:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11	Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez MEX	+52 s +55 s	G4 / G2	15:03 15:27	41:04	Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–30 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 11 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -2.8 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 3.9 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.36 km/h Running and total Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:05 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km) Total: 41:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 20.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 43	Nicholas Andres Miller Herrera CHI	+39 s +92 s	G2 / G4	15:33 16:56	41:07	Show details Prediction details: Nicholas Andres Miller Herrera Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 12–22 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 43 Deviation: -36 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: -52.6 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 98 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.88 km/h Running and total Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 81 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 41:07 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Total: 41:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 30.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 27	Mateo Mendoza Burgos CHI	+39 s +58 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:35 16:20	41:09	Show details Prediction details: Mateo Mendoza Burgos Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 6–36 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 27 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -19.3 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h Running and total Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 41:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km) Total: 41:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 7.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 23	Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate COL	+34 s +80 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:37 16:03	41:11	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 9–28 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 23 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -46.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.15 km/h Running and total Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km) Total: 41:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 24.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 19	Fernando Jacome CHI	+29 s +59 s	G3 / G2	15:37 15:52	41:12	Show details Prediction details: Fernando Jacome Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 6–31 Top-10 probability: 36 % Result: 19 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: -30.5 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 197 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.11 km/h Running and total Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 191 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km) Total: 41:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 19.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9	Daniel Ubilla Sabada CHI	+35 s +39 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:38 15:13	41:12	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Ubilla Sabada Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 5–42 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 9 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -4.2 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h Running and total Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km) Total: 41:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 25.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 38	Erick Arturo Ortigoza Rodriguez MEX	+32 s +65 s	G3 / G2	15:42 18:01	41:17	Show details Prediction details: Erick Arturo Ortigoza Rodriguez Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 4–45 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 38 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: -33.5 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h Running and total Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Error: −2:19 / −0:28 / km Overall prediction: 41:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km) Total: 41:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 22.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14	Sebastian Zurob CHI	+35 s +31 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:44 15:34	41:18	Show details Prediction details: Sebastian Zurob Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 6–36 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 14 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 4.2 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.37 km/h Running and total Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 41:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km) Total: 41:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 3.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 25	Alfredo Miguel Rodríguez Figueroa MEX	+35 s +55 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:45 16:15	41:19	Show details Prediction details: Alfredo Miguel Rodríguez Figueroa Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 10–30 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 25 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -19.6 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.74 km/h Running and total Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 41:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Total: 41:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 4	Zach Leachman USA	+68 s +65 s	G5 / G2	13:21 14:41	41:20	Show details Prediction details: Zach Leachman Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 2–8 Top-10 probability: 93 % Result: 4 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: 3.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h Running and total Run: 13:21 (2:40 / km) Historical basis: 2:40 / km Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:41 (2:56 / km) Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 41:20 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:44 (41.5 km/h) Run: 13:21 (2:40 / km) Total: 41:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 37 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18	Yael Vladimir González Melendez MEX	+29 s +79 s	G3 / G2	15:47 15:42	41:22	Show details Prediction details: Yael Vladimir González Melendez Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 9–28 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 18 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: -49.6 s H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.59 km/h Running and total Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 41:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km) Total: 41:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 16 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16	Isaac Lamprecht USA	+43 s +66 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:50 15:33	41:24	Show details Prediction details: Isaac Lamprecht Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 8–46 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 16 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -22.9 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h Running and total Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 93 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Total: 41:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 34.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 36	Eyal Chen ISR	+32 s +78 s	G2 / G4	15:53 15:55	41:27	Show details Prediction details: Eyal Chen Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 14–28 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 36 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -45.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.26 km/h Running and total Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 41:27 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Total: 41:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 23.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 7	Aiden Longcroft-Harris CAN	+5 s +14 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:13 15:35	41:35	Show details Prediction details: Aiden Longcroft-Harris Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 12–28 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 7 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -9.0 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.91 km/h Running and total Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:35 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 41:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:17 (43.9 km/h) Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Total: 41:35
20 / 8	Porter Middaugh USA	+48 s +58 s	G4 / G2	15:35 15:10	41:36	Show details Prediction details: Porter Middaugh Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 8–34 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 8 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -10.5 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.24 km/h Running and total Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km) Total: 41:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 16.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 30	Solen Wood CAN	+41 s +60 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:04 16:40	41:38	Show details Prediction details: Solen Wood Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 20–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: -19.5 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.64 km/h Running and total Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 85 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 41:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Total: 41:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 31.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 28	Emilio Antonio Ibarra Veyna MEX	+44 s +64 s	G2 / G3	16:05 15:57	41:39	Show details Prediction details: Emilio Antonio Ibarra Veyna Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 7–53 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 28 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: -20.5 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.32 km/h Running and total Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 41:39 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Total: 41:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 12.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 17	Alvaro Campos Solano CRC	+13 s +20 s	G3 / G2	16:05 15:43	41:40	Show details Prediction details: Alvaro Campos Solano Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 13–29 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 17 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: -6.9 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 190 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 48 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.96 km/h Running and total Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:22 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Total: 41:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 4.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 15	Tiago Muñoz ARG	+50 s +82 s	G4 / G2	15:40 15:26	41:41	Show details Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 12–37 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 15 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: -31.7 s H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 11 H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:26 (3:05 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Total: 41:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 41.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 45	Lucas Galdino BRA	+51 s +85 s	G4 / G4 correct	15:43 17:01	41:44	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Galdino Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 10–48 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 45 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: -33.7 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.45 km/h Running and total Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 41:44 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Total: 41:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 19.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 35	Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva BRA	+36 s +35 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:16 17:50	41:50	Show details Prediction details: Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 19–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 1.3 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.99 km/h Running and total Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 1.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km) Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 41:50 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km) Total: 41:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 4.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 46	Marcos Alejandro Fernández González CUB	+35 s +56 s	G2 / G4	16:21 17:08	41:55	Show details Prediction details: Marcos Alejandro Fernández González Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 14–48 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 46 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -21.2 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.44 km/h Running and total Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 41:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Total: 41:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 25.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 59	Raziel Geovanni Muñoz Tun MEX	+51 s +81 s	G4 / G6	15:55 17:08	41:56	Show details Prediction details: Raziel Geovanni Muñoz Tun Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 11–48 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 59 Deviation: -31 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: -29.7 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.62 km/h Running and total Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 41:56 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Total: 41:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 42.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 12	Ignacio Flores Arana CHI	+52 s +64 s	G4 / G2	15:56 15:31	41:57	Show details Prediction details: Ignacio Flores Arana Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 14–49 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 12 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: -12.3 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.16 km/h Running and total Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km) Total: 41:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 42.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 29	Thomas Castañeda Maldonado ARG	+46 s +91 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:24 16:20	41:58	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 18–46 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 29 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +91 s Fehler: -44.8 s H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 216 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.02 km/h Running and total Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 41:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Total: 41:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 14.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 50	Luis Miguel Chávez Sanchez MEX	+61 s +69 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:00 17:38	42:01	Show details Prediction details: Luis Miguel Chávez Sanchez Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 16–52 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 50 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 9:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: -8.5 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.96 km/h Running and total Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 42:01 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Total: 42:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 51.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 52	Thiago Gomide Moreira BRA	+48 s +96 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:04 18:04	42:05	Show details Prediction details: Thiago Gomide Moreira Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 9–47 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 52 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: -47.8 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.45 km/h Running and total Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km) Error: −2:00 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 42:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km) Total: 42:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 16.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 13	Chris Gregor CAN	+20 s +22 s	G3 / G1	16:34 16:16	42:09	Show details Prediction details: Chris Gregor Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 7–47 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 13 Deviation: 20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 40 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h Running and total Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 42:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Total: 42:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 6.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 47	Juan Giraldo Gomez COL	+35 s +96 s	G2 / G5	16:37 16:17	42:11	Show details Prediction details: Juan Giraldo Gomez Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 21–48 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 47 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: -60.9 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 1.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 5 (6 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.74 km/h Running and total Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 42:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km) Total: 42:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 26.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 33	Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki BRA	+39 s +60 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:38 17:14	42:12	Show details Prediction details: Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 10–51 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 33 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: -20.9 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.62 km/h Running and total Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Total: 42:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 30.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 32	José Luis Zazueta Lizárraga MEX	+37 s +40 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:40 16:51	42:14	Show details Prediction details: José Luis Zazueta Lizárraga Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 10–52 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 32 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -3.1 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.87 km/h Running and total Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 42:14 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Total: 42:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 5.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 51	Shavit Haiat ISR	+45 s +98 s	G2 / G5	16:40 16:58	42:14	Show details Prediction details: Shavit Haiat Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 30–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 51 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:42 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +98 s Fehler: -53.1 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 5 (6 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.83 km/h Running and total Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 42:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Total: 42:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 13.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 31	Fabrizio Valentin Pavoni ARG	+50 s +54 s	G4 / G3	16:17 16:29	42:18	Show details Prediction details: Fabrizio Valentin Pavoni Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 10–54 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 31 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -4.2 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.89 km/h Running and total Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 42:18 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Total: 42:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 40.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 22	Benjamín Adriazola CHI	+46 s +33 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:44 16:07	42:18	Show details Prediction details: Benjamín Adriazola Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 31–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 12.7 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.24 km/h Running and total Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Total: 42:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 14.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 24	Daniel Gossow USA	+40 s +80 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:48 16:09	42:22	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Gossow Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 32–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -40.1 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 93 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.10 km/h Running and total Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 42:22 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Total: 42:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 31 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 26	Brett Saunders CAN	+9 s +42 s	G3 / G2	16:50 16:21	42:25	Show details Prediction details: Brett Saunders Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 13–48 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 26 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -32.6 s H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h Running and total Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 11 H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 42:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Total: 42:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 0.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 21	Gabriel Lecheta BRA	+75 s +101 s	G5 / G2	14:28 15:54	42:27	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Lecheta Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 10–50 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 21 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +75 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: -26.4 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.49 km/h Running and total Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km) Historical basis: 2:55 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 42:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:44 (41.5 km/h) Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km) Total: 42:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 65.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 42	Bautista Arbizu ARG	+56 s +67 s	G4 / G3	16:43 18:22	42:44	Show details Prediction details: Bautista Arbizu Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 36–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: -10.6 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.94 km/h Running and total Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km) Error: −1:39 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 42:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Total: 42:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 47.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 20	Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero COL	+22 s +35 s	G3 / G2	17:11 15:49	42:46	Show details Prediction details: Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 38–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -12.6 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h Running and total Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 42:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Total: 42:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 54	Oliver Larcombe NZL	+22 s +94 s	G3 / G4	17:11 18:17	42:46	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Larcombe Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 25–50 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 54 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +94 s Fehler: -72.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (12 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 44.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.51 km/h Running and total Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km) Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 42:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:04 (44.3 km/h) Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Total: 42:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 2	Carter Stuhlmacher USA	+3 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:24 14:57	42:46	Show details Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 22–53 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 2 Deviation: 44 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 3.1 s H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 43.9 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 1 (6 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h Running and total Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -1.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:57 (2:59 / km) Error: +2:27 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 42:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:17 (43.9 km/h) Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km) Total: 42:46
47 / 39	Cristopher Alexander Cardenas Jimenez VEN	+32 s +23 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:13 18:09	42:47	Show details Prediction details: Cristopher Alexander Cardenas Jimenez Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 39–49 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 9.4 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 40.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.56 km/h Running and total Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km) Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 42:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Total: 42:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 23.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 56	Jorge Raul Cabinal Gramajo GUA	+45 s +93 s	G2 / G4	17:14 18:41	42:48	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Raul Cabinal Gramajo Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 35–53 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 56 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:42 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +93 s Fehler: -47.7 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.78 km/h Running and total Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 42:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Total: 42:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 36.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 53	Arturo Salinas PER	+56 s +57 s	G4 / G5	16:55 17:14	42:56	Show details Prediction details: Arturo Salinas Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 37–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 53 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -0.8 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (6 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.52 km/h Running and total Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 42:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 16:55 (3:23 / km) Total: 42:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 47.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 37	Joao Victor Pereira BRA	+66 s +65 s	G5 / G2	15:33 17:57	43:32	Show details Prediction details: Joao Victor Pereira Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 18–49 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 37 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: 0.7 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 2 (29 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h Running and total Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Error: −2:24 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 43:32 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:44 (41.5 km/h) Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Total: 43:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 52.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 40	Jael Juárez Moron MEX	+60 s +94 s	G4 / G3	17:32 18:19	43:33	Show details Prediction details: Jael Juárez Moron Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 44–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 40 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +94 s Fehler: -34.1 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h Running and total Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:33 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km) Total: 43:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 51 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 34	Charlie Smoak USA	+49 s +95 s	G4 / G3	17:53 16:49	43:54	Show details Prediction details: Charlie Smoak Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 49–55 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +95 s Fehler: -46.5 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (5 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h Running and total Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 54 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km) Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 43:54 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km) Total: 43:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 39.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 41	Brener Valencia Nuñez PER	+68 s +77 s	G5 / G4	16:05 16:46	44:04	Show details Prediction details: Brener Valencia Nuñez Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 32–51 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 41 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: -8.6 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h Running and total Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:44 (41.5 km/h) Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 59.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 48	Jack Spence RSA	+76 s +97 s	G5 / G5 correct	16:32 16:18	44:31	Show details Prediction details: Jack Spence Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 47–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +97 s Fehler: -21.5 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 9.1 s Result: Group 5 (6 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.83 km/h Running and total Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 44:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:44 (41.5 km/h) Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Total: 44:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 66.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 55	Emiliano Saldaña Mercado MEX	+56 s +63 s	G4 / G5	18:32 17:46	44:33	Show details Prediction details: Emiliano Saldaña Mercado Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 51–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 55 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: -6.9 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.9 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 5 (6 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.19 km/h Running and total Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 67 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:33 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Total: 44:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 47.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 57	João Vitor Mazorca BRA	+37 s +56 s	G2 / G4	19:20 18:40	44:54	Show details Prediction details: João Vitor Mazorca Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 53–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 57 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -19.1 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (23 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 44.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.81 km/h Running and total Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km) Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:54 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 24:47 (44.8 km/h) Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Total: 44:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 28 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 60	Gian Franco Mario Farnetano VEN	+97 s +98 s	G6 / G6 correct	15:52 18:08	45:33	Show details Prediction details: Gian Franco Mario Farnetano Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 48–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +97 s Time: 10:34 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +98 s Fehler: -0.6 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.4 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.92 km/h Running and total Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 45:33 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (39.9 km/h) Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Total: 45:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 88.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 44	Ignacio Ernesto Braga Giménez ARG	+71 s +92 s	G5 / G4	18:11 16:56	46:10	Show details Prediction details: Ignacio Ernesto Braga Giménez Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 55–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 44 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: -21.1 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h Running and total Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 46:10 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:44 (41.5 km/h) Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km) Total: 46:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 62 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 49	Matias Bellido ARG	+101 s +91 s	G6 / G4	18:01 17:20	47:42	Show details Prediction details: Matias Bellido Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 60–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 49 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +91 s Fehler: 9.7 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 76 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.12 km/h Running and total Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 47:42 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (39.9 km/h) Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Total: 47:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 91.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 58	Rey Vélez PUR	+103 s +100 s	G6 / G5	19:03 18:05	48:44	Show details Prediction details: Rey Vélez Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 61–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +103 s Time: 10:40 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: 3.1 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (6 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h Running and total Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 48:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (39.9 km/h) Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km) Total: 48:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 94.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 63	Benjamín Daniel Diaz-Valdes Escobar CHI	+86 s +82 s	G6 / G6 correct	19:05 20:50	48:46	Show details Prediction details: Benjamín Daniel Diaz-Valdes Escobar Placement Prediction: 61 80% range: 60–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 63 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +86 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +82 s Fehler: 4.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 11.4 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.21 km/h Running and total Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.18 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 48:46 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (39.9 km/h) Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km) Total: 48:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 77.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 61	Benjamin Ignacio Parada Segura CHI	+85 s +99 s	G6 / G6 correct	19:48 19:38	49:29	Show details Prediction details: Benjamin Ignacio Parada Segura Placement Prediction: 62 80% range: 59–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +85 s Time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: -14.4 s H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.1 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.63 km/h Running and total Run: 19:48 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:38 (3:56 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 49:29 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (39.9 km/h) Run: 19:48 (3:58 / km) Total: 49:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 75.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 62	Alexandre Cesar Borges Da Nobrega BRA	+52 s +104 s	G4 / G6	20:08		Show details Prediction details: Alexandre Cesar Borges Da Nobrega Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 62 Deviation: -62 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +104 s Fehler: -52.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 44.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 6 (5 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.02 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 (4:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:01 (44.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 43.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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