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Elite Women

02.11.2025 Viña del Mar CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Americas Triathlon Cup Vina del Mar

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.7
Mean swim error21.7 s
Mean bike-speed error3.67 km/h
Correct bike groups15/31
No history0
Within the 80% range67.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Natalia Casas
MEX
+58 s
+54 s
G4 / G4
correct 		16:32
17:10
 46:45
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Casas

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 46:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza
CHI
+33 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:59
17:51
 46:57
Show details
Prediction details: Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.3 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 46:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 1.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 9 Noemie Beaulieu
CAN
+24 s
+26 s
G1 / G3
 18:27
19:18
 47:04
Show details
Prediction details: Noemie Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.1 s
Gap behind: 9.3 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 47:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:13 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Total: 47:04
4 / 6 Katie McCune
USA
+58 s
+48 s
G4 / G4
correct 		16:52
17:19
 47:05
Show details
Prediction details: Katie McCune

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:19 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:05
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott
USA
+36 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:10
18:23
 47:08
Show details
Prediction details: Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 21.7 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 47:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 1 Aviv Levi
ISR
+6 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:01
17:51
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: Aviv Levi

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.45 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 18.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 47:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:13 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Total: 47:38
7 / 21 Isabel Rodriguez Silverio
CUB
+42 s
+57 s
G3 / G4
 18:10
20:33
 47:44
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Rodriguez Silverio

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.65 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Error: −2:23 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 47:44
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:53 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 47:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 17 Luma Guillen
BRA
+57 s
+56 s
G4 / G4
correct 		17:47
18:48
 48:00
Show details
Prediction details: Luma Guillen

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 16 Micah Gay
CAN
+63 s
+27 s
G4 / G5
 17:49
18:38
 48:02
Show details
Prediction details: Micah Gay

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 36.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:02
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 25.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 2 María López Faraudo
MEX
+78 s
+22 s
G6 / G3
 17:02
17:17
 48:09
Show details
Prediction details: María López Faraudo

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 56.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 38.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +39.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 12 Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan
VEN
+62 s
+43 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:08
18:25
 48:21
Show details
Prediction details: Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 48:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 7 Valentina Alvarez Valencia
COL
+46 s
+59 s
G5 / G4
 18:25
17:51
 48:40
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Alvarez Valencia

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -13.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:29 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 María Emilia Vargas
ARG
+69 s
+20 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:29
18:36
 48:42
Show details
Prediction details: María Emilia Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 49.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:42
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 48:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 31.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 11 Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia
ECU
+60 s
+44 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:57
18:18
 49:10
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De Los Angeles Bonilla Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–25
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:00 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 12
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
15 / 13 Yaniuska Mared Jimenez Arriechi
VEN
+67 s
+51 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:57
18:28
 49:10
Show details
Prediction details: Yaniuska Mared Jimenez Arriechi

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 6–25
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 29.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15 Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales
HON
+58 s
+46 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:59
18:33
 49:12
Show details
Prediction details: Camila Victoria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Total: 49:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 10 Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños
GUA
+73 s
+20 s
G6 / G4
 18:06
18:00
 49:13
Show details
Prediction details: Marlen Alejandra Abigail Aguilar Bolaños

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 52.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:30 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 35.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 8 Julia Maria Alcala Rosales
HON
+64 s
+25 s
G4 / G4
correct 		19:33
17:54
 49:46
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Maria Alcala Rosales

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 38.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:39 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 49:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Total: 49:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 24 Caroline Theil
USA
+46 s
+4 s
G5 / G4
 19:39
22:31
 49:54
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Theil

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 7–27
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 42.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 10.6 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:31 (4:30 / km)
Error: −2:52 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 49:54
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:29 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Total: 49:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 25 Selene Martinez Avila
MEX
+105 s
+105 s
G7 / G9
 18:02
18:32
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Selene Martinez Avila

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 11:17
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:45 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 67.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 29 Miriam López Arenazas
MEX
+83 s
+56 s
G6 / G10
 19:25
0:02
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam López Arenazas

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–30
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 27.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 19.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 0:02 (0:00 / km)
Error: +19:23 / +3:53 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 45.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 20 Gabriela Machado Penteado
BRA
+58 s
+25 s
G4 / G4
correct 		20:31
20:17
 50:44
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriela Machado Penteado

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 32.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:31 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (4:03 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:44
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 20:31 (4:06 / km)
Total: 50:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 30 Maria Luiza Simão de Oliveira
BRA
+58 s
+24 s
G4 / G4
correct 		20:33
25:47
 50:46
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Luiza Simão de Oliveira

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 18–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 34.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:47 (5:09 / km)
Error: −5:14 / −1:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:46
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Total: 50:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 19 Sofia Gelati
BRA
+82 s
+70 s
G6 / G4
 19:44
19:27
 50:51
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Gelati

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 20–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 10:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:51
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Total: 50:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 43.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 26 María José Cordova Casco
MEX
+87 s
+72 s
G6 / G8
 19:46
20:55
 50:53
Show details
Prediction details: María José Cordova Casco

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 21–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 10:59
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 15.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:53
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:59 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Total: 50:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 49.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 28 Karen Guadalupe Castro Rivas
MEX
+63 s
+26 s
G4 / G6
 20:46
22:32
 50:59
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Guadalupe Castro Rivas

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 15–29
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 37.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:32 (4:30 / km)
Error: −1:46 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 50:59
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Total: 50:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 22 Leah Amezcua Herrera
MEX
+91 s
+64 s
G6 / G4
 20:08
20:40
 51:15
Show details
Prediction details: Leah Amezcua Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 18–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 26.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:15
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Total: 51:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 53.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 27 Natalia Cortés Gonzalez
MEX
+57 s
+85 s
G4 / G8
 21:14
21:14
 51:27
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Cortés Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 21–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: -28.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:27
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Total: 51:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 18 Lizeth Lopez Ortega
MEX
+94 s
+66 s
G7 / G4
 19:36
19:05
 52:06
Show details
Prediction details: Lizeth Lopez Ortega

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 21–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 27.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (18 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:36 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:45 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 19:36 (3:55 / km)
Total: 52:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 55.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 23 Emilia Dabadie Zambrano
CHI
+94 s
+86 s
G7 / G7
correct 		20:51
19:56
 53:21
Show details
Prediction details: Emilia Dabadie Zambrano

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 27–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 10.8 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 53:21
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:45 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Total: 53:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 56.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 31 Mariajose Torres Torres
PER
+77 s
+73 s
G6 / G9
 22:41
22:30
 53:48
Show details
Prediction details: Mariajose Torres Torres

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 29–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:41 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.64 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:30 (4:30 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 53:48
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 22:41 (4:32 / km)
Total: 53:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 39.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.