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25-29 Female AG Sprint

30.08.2025 Istanbul TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia and Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Istanbul

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 24/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 8.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 25.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.0
Mean swim error96.5 s
Mean bike-speed error7.37 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history8
Within the 80% range8.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Unė Narkūnaitė
LTU
+62 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:24
19:50
 58:06
Show details
Prediction details: Unė Narkūnaitė

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 13:13
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 45.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 160.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 26.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:24 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:50 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 58:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:13 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:40 (32.7 km/h)
Run: 20:24 (3:58 / km)
Total: 58:06
2 / 1 Ute Pirchan
AUT
+244 s
+65 s
G2 / G1
 20:10
19:27
 1:01:50
Show details
Prediction details: Ute Pirchan

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +244 s
Time: 16:15
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 178.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.4 s
Gap behind: 81.7 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 26.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:10 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:50
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:15 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 20:10 (3:55 / km)
Total: 1:01:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:17
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 178 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +65.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 10 Agata Siwiec
POL
+223 s
+195 s
G2 / G8
 22:04
22:10
 1:03:44
Show details
Prediction details: Agata Siwiec

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +223 s
Time: 15:54
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +195 s
Fehler: 27.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 160.5 s
Gap behind: 21.4 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 22.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:04 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:10 (4:18 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:44
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:54 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:36 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 22:04 (4:17 / km)
Total: 1:03:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:17
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 156.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +65.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 11 Emily Faltinger
AUT
+326 s
+191 s
G3 / G6
 25:54
26:05
 1:08:51
Show details
Prediction details: Emily Faltinger

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +326 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +191 s
Fehler: 134.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.90 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 81.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 23.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:54 (5:02 / km)
Historical basis: 5:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:05 (5:04 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:51
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:37 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:31 (32.0 km/h)
Run: 25:54 (5:02 / km)
Total: 1:08:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:17
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
About 259.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +65.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Kayleigh Parker
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G2
20:26
Show details
Prediction details: Kayleigh Parker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Abigail Haley
GBR
+0 s
+118 s
G0 / G5
20:33
Show details
Prediction details: Abigail Haley

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 24.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (3:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Amy Woods
GBR
+0 s
+125 s
G0 / G3
24:04
Show details
Prediction details: Amy Woods

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +125 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 25.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:04 (4:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Susanne Bracun
AUT
+0 s
+149 s
G0 / G5
22:26
Show details
Prediction details: Susanne Bracun

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +149 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 24.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:26 (4:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Orla Godfrey
GBR
+0 s
+125 s
G0 / G4
23:33
Show details
Prediction details: Orla Godfrey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +125 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:33 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Oona Platteeuw
BEL
+0 s
+191 s
G0 / G6
22:48
Show details
Prediction details: Oona Platteeuw

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +191 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 23.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:48 (4:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Althea Lonergan
IRL
+0 s
+318 s
G0 / G7
23:36
Show details
Prediction details: Althea Lonergan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +318 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 24.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:36 (4:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Natalia Tłuczek
POL
+0 s
+325 s
G0 / G8
24:59
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Tłuczek

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:11
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +325 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 23.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:59 (4:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:11 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.