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35-39 Female AG Sprint

30.08.2025 Istanbul TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia and Europe Triathlon Age-Group Championships Istanbul

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 26/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 18.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Mean swim error75.4 s
Mean bike-speed error8.58 km/h
Correct bike groups1/6
No history10
Within the 80% range56.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Naomi Reynolds
GBR
+28 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		22:27
22:41
 56:53
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Reynolds

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 28.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 152.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 26.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:27 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:41 (4:24 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 56:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 22:27 (4:22 / km)
Total: 56:53
2 / 10 Caoimhe De-Ste-Croix
GBR
+180 s
+119 s
G1 / G9
 25:26
23:57
 59:52
Show details
Prediction details: Caoimhe De-Ste-Croix

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +180 s
Time: 14:05
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +119 s
Fehler: 61.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 152.4 s
Gap behind: 22.6 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 22.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:26 (4:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:57 (4:39 / km)
Error: +1:29 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 59:52
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:05 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 25:26 (4:56 / km)
Total: 59:52
3 / 3 Nina Wareham
GBR
+203 s
+107 s
G2 / G3
 22:46
21:55
 1:02:44
Show details
Prediction details: Nina Wareham

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +203 s
Time: 14:28
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: 96.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.21 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.6 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:46 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:55 (4:15 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:44
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:28 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 22:46 (4:25 / km)
Total: 1:02:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 171.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Simone Wögerbauer
AUT
+207 s
+180 s
G2 / G4
 24:20
21:50
 1:04:18
Show details
Prediction details: Simone Wögerbauer

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +207 s
Time: 14:32
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +180 s
Fehler: 26.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 81.9 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 25.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:20 (4:43 / km)
Historical basis: 4:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:50 (4:14 / km)
Error: +2:30 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:18
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:32 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 24:20 (4:43 / km)
Total: 1:04:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 174.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Adele Potts
GBR
+391 s
+209 s
G3 / G9
 22:42
22:09
 1:10:33
Show details
Prediction details: Adele Potts

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +391 s
Time: 17:36
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +209 s
Fehler: 181.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.21 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 102.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 23.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:42 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:09 (4:18 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:33
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:36 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:20 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 22:42 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:10:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 358.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Milena Budrewicz
POL
+289 s
+230 s
G2 / G8
 49:22
23:55
 1:29:20
Show details
Prediction details: Milena Budrewicz

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +289 s
Time: 15:54
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +230 s
Fehler: 58.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 81.9 s
Gap behind: 102.2 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 23.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 49:22 (9:35 / km)
Historical basis: 9:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:55 (4:39 / km)
Error: +25:27 / +4:57 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:20
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:54 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (32.9 km/h)
Run: 49:22 (9:35 / km)
Total: 1:29:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 14:24
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
About 89.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +198.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Carys Jones
GBR
+0 s
+40 s
G0 / G2
20:19
Show details
Prediction details: Carys Jones

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 25.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:19 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Katy Rivers
GBR
+0 s
+297 s
G0 / G6
22:51
Show details
Prediction details: Katy Rivers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +297 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 26.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:51 (4:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Emma Broadhurst
GBR
+0 s
+66 s
G0 / G5
24:43
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Broadhurst

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 24.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:43 (4:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Dorota Nguyen
POL
+0 s
+298 s
G0 / G7
23:47
Show details
Prediction details: Dorota Nguyen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +298 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:47 (4:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Katarzyna Wojciechowska
POL
+0 s
+309 s
G0 / G10
27:59
Show details
Prediction details: Katarzyna Wojciechowska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +309 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 23.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:59 (5:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Ayşe Müge Tepe
TUR
+0 s
+341 s
G0 / G11
27:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ayşe Müge Tepe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +341 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 21.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:26 (5:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Hande Deniz
TUR
+0 s
+428 s
G0 / G12
28:02
Show details
Prediction details: Hande Deniz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +428 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 21.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:02 (5:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Hande Bitrim Pütün
TUR
+0 s
+551 s
G0 / G13
32:42
Show details
Prediction details: Hande Bitrim Pütün

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +551 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 19.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:42 (6:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Ahu Çakıroğlu
TUR
+0 s
+587 s
G0 / G14
31:09
Show details
Prediction details: Ahu Çakıroğlu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +587 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 18.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:09 (6:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Bernadette Burger
AUT
+0 s
+1246 s
G0 / G15
39:52
Show details
Prediction details: Bernadette Burger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1246 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:52 (7:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.