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Elite Women

18.10.2025 Changshou District CHN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Cup Chongqing

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 59/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 77.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.8
Mean swim error36.3 s
Mean bike-speed error6.36 km/h
Correct bike groups2/9
No history0
Within the 80% range66.7 %
Details
1 / 1 Xinyu Lin
CHN
+24 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:40
36:19
 1:38:46
Show details
Prediction details: Xinyu Lin

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:19 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:39 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:38:46
2 / 4 Sinem Francisca Tous Servera
TUR
+35 s
+11 s
G2 / G3
 36:56
36:06
 1:39:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sinem Francisca Tous Servera

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 20:41
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 24.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 11.6 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:56 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:41 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:00 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 36:56 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:39:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 4.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Tatiana Baskakova
AIN
+27 s
+0 s
G1 / G4
 37:25
39:06
 1:39:31
Show details
Prediction details: Tatiana Baskakova

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 20:33
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 26.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:25 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:06 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:31
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:33 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:39 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 37:25 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:39:31
4 / 3 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+26 s
+2 s
G1 / G2
 38:55
37:33
 1:41:01
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 20:32
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:55 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Error: +1:22 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:32 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:39 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 38:55 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:41:01
5 / 6 Josephine Seerig
GER
+26 s
+4 s
G1 / G3
 39:32
39:30
 1:41:38
Show details
Prediction details: Josephine Seerig

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 20:32
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 22.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:32 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:30 (3:57 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:32 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:39 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 39:32 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:41:38
6 / 2 Xinyi Xu
CHN
+47 s
+4 s
G3 / G2
 37:54
37:23
 1:41:41
Show details
Prediction details: Xinyi Xu

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 20:53
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 42.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 51.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:53 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 37:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:41:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Isla Watson
AUS
+34 s
+3 s
G2 / G5
 40:58
38:58
 1:43:33
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Watson

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 20:40
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 31.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:58 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:58 (3:54 / km)
Error: +2:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:40 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:00 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 40:58 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:43:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5 Jirong Dong
CHN
+47 s
+5 s
G3 / G3
correct 		41:16
38:28
 1:45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Jirong Dong

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 20:53
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 41.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 11.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:16 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.25 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:28 (3:51 / km)
Error: +2:48 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:03
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:53 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:01 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 41:16 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:45:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 15.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9 Zihan Yan
CHN
+98 s
+7 s
G4 / G6
 44:27
42:36
 1:50:28
Show details
Prediction details: Zihan Yan

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 21:44
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 91.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 51.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:27 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:36 (4:16 / km)
Error: +1:51 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:50:28
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 21:44 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:23 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 44:27 (4:27 / km)
Total: 1:50:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:37
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 67.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.