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Elite Women

25.05.2025 Osaka Castle JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Cup Osaka Castle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.05.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 72.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.5
Mean swim error13.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.12 km/h
Correct bike groups16/46
No history2
Within the 80% range45.8 %
Details
1 / 7 Sian Munks
AUS
+14 s
+29 s
G1 / G2
 17:33
18:31
 49:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Munks

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -15.2 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 49:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 49:08
2 / 1 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+12 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:39
17:37
 49:14
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:14
3 / 8 Chloe Bateup
AUS
+17 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 18:01
18:41
 49:36
Show details
Prediction details: Chloe Bateup

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:36
4 / 2 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+21 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:04
17:43
 49:39
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–19
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:39
5 / 5 Manami Iijima
GUM
+28 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:42
18:05
 49:59
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Iijima

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 43 Juri Ide
JPN
+21 s
+28 s
G1 / G5
 18:34
20:00
 50:09
Show details
Prediction details: Juri Ide

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -37

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -7.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 50:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:09
7 / 21 Hayley Cornwall
NZL
+15 s
+55 s
G1 / G3
 18:48
19:14
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Hayley Cornwall

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -39.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:23
8 / 6 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+7 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:49
18:55
 50:24
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:24
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:24
9 / 31 Mao Shimazaki
JPN
+61 s
+54 s
G4 / G5
 17:21
17:48
 50:26
Show details
Prediction details: Mao Shimazaki

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–29
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:57
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 50:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 40.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+32 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 18:18
18:03
 50:35
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Total: 50:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 15 Gyuri Kim
KOR
+40 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:11
18:33
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Gyuri Kim

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Total: 50:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 9 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+15 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:10
19:24
 50:45
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–22
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -5.6 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 50:45
13 / 12 Himeka Sato
JPN
+19 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 19:12
18:59
 50:47
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–21
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 18.5 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Total: 50:47
14 / 28 Jamie Harker
CAN
+12 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:28
20:54
 51:03
Show details
Prediction details: Jamie Harker

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–25
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -6.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:54 (4:11 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 51:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 51:03
15 / 10 Yoshiko Sato
JPN
+29 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 18:49
19:23
 51:06
Show details
Prediction details: Yoshiko Sato

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–21
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 51:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 4 Ayame Hayashi
JPN
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:55
17:56
 51:12
Show details
Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 8–23
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 51:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 34 Haruka Sekiguchi
JPN
+57 s
+55 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:08
18:47
 51:13
Show details
Prediction details: Haruka Sekiguchi

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:13
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 51:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 35.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Martina Ayu Pratiwi
INA
+26 s
+45 s
G2 / G3
 18:57
18:51
 51:14
Show details
Prediction details: Martina Ayu Pratiwi

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -19.2 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 4.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 25 Narumi Kanke
JPN
+38 s
+34 s
G2 / G3
 19:08
19:28
 51:25
Show details
Prediction details: Narumi Kanke

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–30
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:25
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 41 Erika Tanno
JPN
+45 s
+66 s
G3 / G6
 19:04
18:52
 51:33
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Tanno

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 13–28
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -21.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Total: 51:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 23.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 33 Momoko Seki
JPN
+35 s
+21 s
G2 / G4
 19:24
18:42
 51:41
Show details
Prediction details: Momoko Seki

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:41
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Total: 51:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+9 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 20:07
20:04
 51:42
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 8–31
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -10.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Total: 51:42
23 / 35 Yen Ling Kathlyn Yeo
SGP
+27 s
+33 s
G2 / G3
 19:27
20:09
 51:44
Show details
Prediction details: Yen Ling Kathlyn Yeo

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.28 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:44
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 51:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 16 Charlotte Brown
NZL
+40 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 19:32
19:20
 52:01
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Brown

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 15–33
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 19.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 11 Hinaka Masuda
JPN
+26 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 19:58
19:21
 52:15
Show details
Prediction details: Hinaka Masuda

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 19–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:15
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 52:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 37 Binta Erlen Salsabela
INA
+28 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 19:58
20:37
 52:15
Show details
Prediction details: Binta Erlen Salsabela

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 17–33
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:15
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 52:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 22 Sawa Eguchi
JPN
+35 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:08
20:01
 52:25
Show details
Prediction details: Sawa Eguchi

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:25
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Total: 52:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 14 Amara Rae
NZL
+57 s
+60 s
G4 / G3
 19:22
18:26
 52:27
Show details
Prediction details: Amara Rae

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 17–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -3.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 35.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 40 Momoe Fujisaka
JPN
+59 s
+50 s
G4 / G5
 19:29
19:26
 52:34
Show details
Prediction details: Momoe Fujisaka

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 25–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:34
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 37.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 32 Saki Yanagihara
JPN
+11 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 21:02
20:44
 52:37
Show details
Prediction details: Saki Yanagihara

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 27–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:02 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:09 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:37
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 21:02 (4:12 / km)
Total: 52:37
31 / 26 Yume Obara
JPN
+50 s
+57 s
G4 / G3
 19:51
19:28
 52:56
Show details
Prediction details: Yume Obara

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 24–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 52:56
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Total: 52:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 28.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 30 Rio Noda
JPN
+21 s
+30 s
G2 / G3
 20:50
19:49
 53:07
Show details
Prediction details: Rio Noda

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:07
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Total: 53:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 24 Long Hoi
MAC
+55 s
+61 s
G4 / G3
 20:05
19:27
 53:10
Show details
Prediction details: Long Hoi

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 27–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -5.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 53:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Total: 53:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 29 Mako Sasaki
JPN
+57 s
+63 s
G4 / G3
 20:12
19:51
 53:17
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Sasaki

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 26–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Total: 53:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 36.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 19 Yuki Sugihara
JPN
+55 s
+45 s
G4 / G3
 20:21
18:58
 53:26
Show details
Prediction details: Yuki Sugihara

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 29–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 53:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Total: 53:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 33.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 36 Renata Berliana Aditya
INA
+53 s
+32 s
G4 / G3
 20:22
20:18
 53:27
Show details
Prediction details: Renata Berliana Aditya

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 26–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 53:27
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Total: 53:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 32 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 20 Eunjin Choi
KOR
+40 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:00
18:53
 53:29
Show details
Prediction details: Eunjin Choi

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 33–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:00 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 53:29
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 21:00 (4:12 / km)
Total: 53:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 38 Karin Saito
JPN
+44 s
+49 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:22
20:56
 53:51
Show details
Prediction details: Karin Saito

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 35–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:51
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Total: 53:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 22.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 13 Ikumi Seto
JPN
+90 s
+63 s
G6 / G3
 18:13
18:18
 53:55
Show details
Prediction details: Ikumi Seto

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 19–42
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +90 s
Time: 11:26
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 26.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 23.7 s
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 53:55
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:26 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:49 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 53:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 68.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 48 Hanna Yoshizaki
JPN
+61 s
+58 s
G4 / G5
 20:51
22:59
 53:56
Show details
Prediction details: Hanna Yoshizaki

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 36–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:57
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 53:56
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Total: 53:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 40.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 42 Yui Watanabe
JPN
+113 s
+113 s
G6 / G6
correct 		18:41
18:59
 54:23
Show details
Prediction details: Yui Watanabe

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 35–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +113 s
Time: 11:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.7 s
Gap behind: 30.8 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 54:23
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:49 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Total: 54:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 92.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 46 Noriko Kono
JPN
+86 s
+130 s
G6 / G6
correct 		20:19
21:04
 56:01
Show details
Prediction details: Noriko Kono

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 42–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +130 s
Fehler: -43.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.8 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 56:01
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:49 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Total: 56:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 65.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 45 Karen Mizuki
JPN
+67 s
+121 s
G5 / G6
 20:21
20:34
 56:02
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Mizuki

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 35–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: -53.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 56:02
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:28 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Total: 56:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 46.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 39 Honatsu Tanimura
JPN
+64 s
+47 s
G4 / G4
correct 		23:19
20:04
 56:24
Show details
Prediction details: Honatsu Tanimura

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 45–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 16.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:19 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -1.86 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Error: +3:15 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 56:24
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 23:19 (4:40 / km)
Total: 56:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 42.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 44 Nanami Ishibashi
JPN
+73 s
+64 s
G5 / G5
correct 		20:49
19:55
 56:30
Show details
Prediction details: Nanami Ishibashi

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 39–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 11:09
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 13.8 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:55 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 56:30
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:09 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:28 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Total: 56:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 51.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 27 Yukiho Okuma
JPN
+144 s
+40 s
G7 / G3
 22:31
19:29
 1:02:13
Show details
Prediction details: Yukiho Okuma

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 46–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +144 s
Time: 12:20
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 104.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:31 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Error: +3:02 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:13
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:20 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:18 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 22:31 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:02:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 123.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18 Tsubomi Yokokura
JPN
+0 s
+21 s
G0 / G3
18:50
Show details
Prediction details: Tsubomi Yokokura

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 47–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (18 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 47 Sora Hayashida
JPN
+0 s
+78 s
G0 / G6
21:32
Show details
Prediction details: Sora Hayashida

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 48–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (5 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.