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Elite Men

27.09.2025 Turkestan KAZ
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Cup Turkestan

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 59/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 77.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.3
Mean swim error21.8 s
Mean bike-speed error2.22 km/h
Correct bike groups9/18
No history0
Within the 80% range44.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+47 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:29
30:10
 1:29:36
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 18:25
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 14.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:29 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:10 (3:01 / km)
Error: +2:19 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:25 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 32:29 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:29:36
2 / 9 Mikhail Bastrakov
AIN
+48 s
+70 s
G1 / G2
 33:26
31:05
 1:30:33
Show details
Prediction details: Mikhail Bastrakov

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 18:26
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: -21.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:05 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:21 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:30:33
3 / 6 Yegor Krupyakov
KAZ
+23 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:44
31:45
 1:30:51
Show details
Prediction details: Yegor Krupyakov

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:30:51
4 / 7 Martin Demuth
CZE
+14 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:54
31:54
 1:32:01
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Demuth

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 17:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:54 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: +3:00 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:54 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:32:01
5 / 3 Roman Mineev
AIN
+76 s
+64 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:58
28:59
 1:32:41
Show details
Prediction details: Roman Mineev

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:58 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:59 (2:54 / km)
Error: +1:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 30:58 (3:06 / km)
Total: 1:32:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:34
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 20.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 13 Leon Vollstedt
GER
+26 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:42
34:52
 1:32:49
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Vollstedt

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 20.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 13.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:52 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:49
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:32:49
7 / 17 Samuel Künz
AUT
+25 s
+73 s
G1 / G3
 35:52
33:45
 1:32:59
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Künz

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -48.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:45 (3:23 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:59
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:32:59
8 / 8 Lukas Merta
GER
+15 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:57
32:26
 1:33:04
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Merta

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–17
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 17:53
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:57 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.22 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Error: +3:31 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:04
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:53 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 35:57 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:33:04
9 / 2 Daryn Konysbayev
KAZ
+105 s
+62 s
G3 / G2
 31:44
28:51
 1:34:05
Show details
Prediction details: Daryn Konysbayev

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 19:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 42.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:44 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:51 (2:53 / km)
Error: +2:53 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:23 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:32 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 31:44 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:34:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:34
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 49.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 5 Peter Rojtas
SVK
+51 s
+41 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:08
31:36
 1:34:15
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 18:29
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:08 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:36 (3:10 / km)
Error: +5:32 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:29 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 37:08 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:34:15
11 / 14 Noah Künz
AUT
+52 s
+64 s
G1 / G2
 37:13
33:21
 1:34:20
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Künz

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–17
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 18:30
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -12.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 14.1 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:13 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:21 (3:20 / km)
Error: +3:52 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:30 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 37:13 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:34:20
12 / 4 Ayan Beisenbayev
KAZ
+82 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 32:57
31:01
 1:34:40
Show details
Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 51.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 21.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:01 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:34:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:33
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 18 Ali Zhanat
KAZ
+66 s
+75 s
G2 / G4
 33:09
37:58
 1:34:52
Show details
Prediction details: Ali Zhanat

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 18:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -9.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.1 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: −4:49 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:52
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:34:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:34
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 10.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Alexandr Ten
KAZ
+109 s
+63 s
G3 / G2
 34:19
32:25
 1:36:40
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandr Ten

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +109 s
Time: 19:27
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 45.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:19 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:25 (3:15 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:32 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 34:19 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:36:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:34
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 53.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 11 David Korous
CZE
+68 s
+64 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:36
31:40
 1:37:19
Show details
Prediction details: David Korous

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 18:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Error: +3:56 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:37:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:33
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 16 Seongsik Kim
KOR
+73 s
+79 s
G2 / G3
 35:57
32:54
 1:37:40
Show details
Prediction details: Seongsik Kim

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 18:51
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -6.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:57 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:54 (3:17 / km)
Error: +3:03 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:40
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:51 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 35:57 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:37:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:34
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 15 Arlan Zhanabay
KAZ
+103 s
+77 s
G3 / G3
correct 		38:33
31:52
 1:40:54
Show details
Prediction details: Arlan Zhanabay

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 26.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:33 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:52 (3:11 / km)
Error: +6:41 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:32 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 38:33 (3:51 / km)
Total: 1:40:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:33
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 48 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +55.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Oleg Kuzikhin
AIN
+40 s
+60 s
G1 / G2
31:07
Show details
Prediction details: Oleg Kuzikhin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.7 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:07 (3:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:16 (42.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable