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Elite Women

26.09.2025 Yilan TPE
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Cup Yilan

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 93.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean swim error17.6 s
Mean bike-speed error0.93 km/h
Correct bike groups2/33
No history0
Within the 80% range51.5 %
Details
1 / 1 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+20 s
+30 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:28
16:49
 46:08
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -9.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:08
2 / 4 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+47 s
+53 s
G2 / G1
 17:52
17:41
 46:35
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 46:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 22.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Sophie Gießmann
GER
+45 s
+56 s
G2 / G1
 17:59
17:48
 46:42
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Gießmann

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 46:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 21 Grace Kells
AUS
+42 s
+56 s
G2 / G3
 18:08
19:03
 46:51
Show details
Prediction details: Grace Kells

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -14.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 46:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 17.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 10 Phoebe Carter
NZL
+41 s
+56 s
G2 / G1
 18:15
18:19
 46:58
Show details
Prediction details: Phoebe Carter

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:58
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 16.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Katie McCune
USA
+58 s
+15 s
G3 / G1
 17:14
17:03
 47:01
Show details
Prediction details: Katie McCune

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 43.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:19 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:01
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 47:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Lulu Johnson
NZL
+26 s
+48 s
G2 / G1
 18:22
18:08
 47:05
Show details
Prediction details: Lulu Johnson

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -21.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Total: 47:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+16 s
+36 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:32
18:37
 47:12
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -20.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Total: 47:12
9 / 3 Isla Britton
CAN
+58 s
+50 s
G3 / G1
 17:37
17:24
 47:24
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Britton

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–17
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:21 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Total: 47:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 34 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 14 Yoshiko Sato
JPN
+41 s
+44 s
G2 / G1
 18:47
19:34
 47:30
Show details
Prediction details: Yoshiko Sato

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 47:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Total: 47:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 7 Ayame Hayashi
JPN
+38 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 18:52
18:03
 47:35
Show details
Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 47:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Total: 47:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+34 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 19:04
19:28
 47:47
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Total: 47:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Amara Rae
NZL
+69 s
+58 s
G4 / G1
 18:04
17:47
 48:10
Show details
Prediction details: Amara Rae

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.3 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:57 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 45.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Isla Watson
AUS
+35 s
+27 s
G2 / G1
 19:29
18:59
 48:12
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Watson

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 48:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18 Caroline Theil
USA
+40 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 19:43
20:53
 48:26
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Theil

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 40.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 48:26
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Total: 48:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 9 Chi Wen Chang
TPE
+53 s
+39 s
G3 / G1
 18:40
18:07
 48:27
Show details
Prediction details: Chi Wen Chang

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Total: 48:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 15 Sawa Eguchi
JPN
+44 s
+38 s
G2 / G1
 19:50
20:05
 48:33
Show details
Prediction details: Sawa Eguchi

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:33
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Total: 48:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Ting-Yun Hu
TPE
+52 s
+54 s
G3 / G2
 20:48
20:03
 50:35
Show details
Prediction details: Ting-Yun Hu

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:03 (4:01 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Total: 50:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 16 Briana Mow
AUS
+85 s
+61 s
G6 / G2
 18:46
18:46
 51:08
Show details
Prediction details: Briana Mow

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 23.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.69 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 14.7 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:58 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 60.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 22 Yu-Ting Pan
TPE
+83 s
+104 s
G6 / G3
 19:21
19:03
 51:43
Show details
Prediction details: Yu-Ting Pan

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -20.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:58 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Total: 51:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 59 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 17 Chia-Chia Chang
TPE
+59 s
+51 s
G3 / G1
 23:18
20:23
 53:05
Show details
Prediction details: Chia-Chia Chang

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 22–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 10.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:18 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: +2:55 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 53:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 23:18 (4:40 / km)
Total: 53:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25 Cheuk Yat Lo
HKG
+81 s
+84 s
G6 / G3
 21:10
21:53
 53:32
Show details
Prediction details: Cheuk Yat Lo

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 22–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:10 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:53 (4:23 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:32
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:58 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 21:10 (4:14 / km)
Total: 53:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 57.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 19 Sarah Modiano
HKG
+110 s
+102 s
G7 / G3
 19:45
18:11
 53:57
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Modiano

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 11:15
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 53:57
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:15 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 86.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 24 Anson Lun
HKG
+106 s
+128 s
G7 / G4
 21:17
19:47
 55:29
Show details
Prediction details: Anson Lun

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 25–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 11:11
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +128 s
Fehler: -22.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Error: +1:30 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 55:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:11 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km)
Total: 55:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 81.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 28 Lok Tung Wong
HKG
+99 s
+83 s
G7 / G5
 21:37
20:51
 55:49
Show details
Prediction details: Lok Tung Wong

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +99 s
Time: 11:04
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.7 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:37 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 55:49
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 21:37 (4:19 / km)
Total: 55:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 75.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 31 Oi Yin Chan
HKG
+124 s
+127 s
G8 / G5
 20:50
22:49
 56:22
Show details
Prediction details: Oi Yin Chan

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 26–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +127 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:49 (4:34 / km)
Error: −1:59 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 56:22
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:28 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Total: 56:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 99.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 32 Wan Tung Wong
HKG
+107 s
+137 s
G7 / G6
 22:31
22:37
 56:43
Show details
Prediction details: Wan Tung Wong

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 25–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +107 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +137 s
Fehler: -29.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:31 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:37 (4:31 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 56:43
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 22:31 (4:30 / km)
Total: 56:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 83 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 29 Hayley Tsang
HKG
+164 s
+129 s
G9 / G5
 21:59
20:56
 58:20
Show details
Prediction details: Hayley Tsang

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 30–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +164 s
Time: 12:09
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +129 s
Fehler: 35.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.0 s
Gap behind: 17.8 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 58:20
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:09 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Total: 58:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 140.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 30 Hoi Ching Lam
HKG
+124 s
+101 s
G8 / G5
 23:02
21:15
 58:34
Show details
Prediction details: Hoi Ching Lam

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 30–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 40.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:02 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:15 (4:15 / km)
Error: +1:47 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 58:34
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:28 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 23:02 (4:36 / km)
Total: 58:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 100.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 27 Min Chuan Wu
TPE
+74 s
+59 s
G5 / G3
 27:58
23:12
 59:00
Show details
Prediction details: Min Chuan Wu

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 30–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 14.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:58 (5:36 / km)
Historical basis: 5:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:12 (4:38 / km)
Error: +4:46 / +0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 59:00
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 27:58 (5:36 / km)
Total: 59:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 49.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 33 Chiao-Hsun Hsieh
TPE
+192 s
+180 s
G9 / G7
 24:41
25:13
 1:01:02
Show details
Prediction details: Chiao-Hsun Hsieh

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +192 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +180 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.70 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:41 (4:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:13 (5:03 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:02
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:37 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 24:41 (4:56 / km)
Total: 1:01:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 168.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Hui Ming Chuang
TPE
+115 s
+58 s
G7 / G3
21:06
Show details
Prediction details: Hui Ming Chuang

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 11:20
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 57.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:06 (4:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 91.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Ya Chiao Hsu
TPE
+182 s
+123 s
G9 / G4
20:37
Show details
Prediction details: Ya Chiao Hsu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +182 s
Time: 12:27
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +123 s
Fehler: 59.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.8 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:27 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 157.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.