Prediction comparison

U23 Men

31.10.2025 Aqaba JOR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Asia Triathlon Junior and U23 Championships Aqaba

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 64/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.3

Mean swim error11.4 s

Mean bike-speed error4.16 km/h

Correct bike groups16/36

No history0

Within the 80% range58.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Takuto Oshima JPN	+11 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:51 16:06	42:37	Show details Prediction details: Takuto Oshima Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 10.9 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 66 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.9 s Gap behind: 8.9 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.33 km/h Running and total Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 42:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.4 km/h) Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km) Total: 42:37
2 / 3	Yegor Krupyakov KAZ	+2 s +5 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:50 16:31	43:36	Show details Prediction details: Yegor Krupyakov Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +2 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: -3.0 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 43.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 8.9 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 43:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.4 km/h) Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Total: 43:36
3 / 11	Kazuna Asanuma JPN	+22 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:39 17:48	43:53	Show details Prediction details: Kazuna Asanuma Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 2.1 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 43.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.07 km/h Running and total Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Error: −2:09 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 43:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h) Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Total: 43:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 16.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Alexandr Ten KAZ	+40 s +32 s	G3 / G2	15:27 15:51	44:02	Show details Prediction details: Alexandr Ten Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–9 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 8.0 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.65 km/h Running and total Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km) Total: 44:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 34.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Arlan Zhanabay KAZ	+36 s +29 s	G3 / G3 correct	15:30 15:57	44:05	Show details Prediction details: Arlan Zhanabay Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 3–9 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 7.0 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.4 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.92 km/h Running and total Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Total: 44:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 30.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 1	Kazushi Jozuka JPN	+33 s +12 s	G3 / G1	15:48 15:31	44:23	Show details Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 1 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 20.6 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 3.4 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.73 km/h Running and total Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 44:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Total: 44:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8	Tak Long Yip HKG	+45 s +35 s	G3 / G2	16:06 16:50	44:41	Show details Prediction details: Tak Long Yip Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–11 Top-10 probability: 85 % Result: 8 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 10.3 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.45 km/h Running and total Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 44:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 39.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6	Maxim Shmulich KAZ	+26 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:58 16:07	45:12	Show details Prediction details: Maxim Shmulich Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 4–18 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 6 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 6.4 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.99 km/h Running and total Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 50 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 45:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h) Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km) Total: 45:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 20.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7	Taegi Kim KOR	+52 s +50 s	G4 / G2	15:59 16:21	45:22	Show details Prediction details: Taegi Kim Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 6–13 Top-10 probability: 80 % Result: 7 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.55 km/h Running and total Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 45:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km) Total: 45:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 46.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 22	Tien Yu Chiang TPE	+41 s +30 s	G3 / G2	17:15 19:07	45:50	Show details Prediction details: Tien Yu Chiang Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–17 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 22 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 11.2 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.55 km/h Running and total Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:49 / km) Error: −1:52 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 45:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km) Total: 45:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 35.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10	Hyeonil Jang KOR	+49 s +51 s	G4 / G2	16:34 17:36	45:57	Show details Prediction details: Hyeonil Jang Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 51 % Result: 10 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: -1.9 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.51 km/h Running and total Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km) Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 45:57 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 43.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 14	Yi Jun Tey SGP	+60 s +68 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:51 17:00	46:14	Show details Prediction details: Yi Jun Tey Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 9–20 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 14 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: -8.0 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 8.8 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.39 km/h Running and total Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 46:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Total: 46:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 54.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 29	Pu Chak Yung HKG	+44 s +21 s	G3 / G6	17:41 18:46	46:16	Show details Prediction details: Pu Chak Yung Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 11–20 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 29 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 23.1 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 92 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.48 km/h Running and total Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 67 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 46:16 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Total: 46:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 38.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 30	Teppei Tokuyama JPN	+38 s +23 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:47 22:07	46:22	Show details Prediction details: Teppei Tokuyama Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 7–22 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 30 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.00 km/h Running and total Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:07 (4:25 / km) Error: −4:20 / −0:52 / km Overall prediction: 46:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:50 (43.1 km/h) Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Total: 46:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 23 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18	Jimin Hong KOR	+20 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:16 18:29	46:30	Show details Prediction details: Jimin Hong Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 10–18 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 18 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: -0.2 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 43.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.9 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.05 km/h Running and total Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 54 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km) Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:30 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h) Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Total: 46:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 13.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 13	Abdelrahman Tantish PLE	+57 s +61 s	G4 / G4 correct	17:12 17:01	46:35	Show details Prediction details: Abdelrahman Tantish Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 11–26 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 13 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -4.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.45 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 3.1 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.43 km/h Running and total Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 46:35 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km) Total: 46:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 50.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 33	Chi hsiang Hsieh TPE	+49 s +76 s	G4 / G6	17:37 20:26	47:00	Show details Prediction details: Chi hsiang Hsieh Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 13–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: -26.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 55 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.55 km/h Running and total Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 55 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (4:05 / km) Error: −2:49 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: 47:00 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Total: 47:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 43.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 24	Kamran Khodjaev UZB	+51 s +58 s	G4 / G4 correct	17:41 18:50	47:04	Show details Prediction details: Kamran Khodjaev Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 13–21 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 24 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -7.2 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.60 km/h Running and total Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km) Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 47:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km) Total: 47:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 44.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 12	Sultan Aliev UZB	+78 s +73 s	G6 / G4	16:17 16:46	47:15	Show details Prediction details: Sultan Aliev Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 14–24 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 12 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +78 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +73 s Fehler: 4.8 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.47 km/h Running and total Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 47:15 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h) Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km) Total: 47:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 71.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 21	Artin Nasiri IRI	+60 s +73 s	G4 / G4 correct	18:08 17:45	47:31	Show details Prediction details: Artin Nasiri Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 17–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +73 s Fehler: -13.1 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h Running and total Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 50 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 47:31 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Total: 47:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 54 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 20	Joshua Ramos PHI	+51 s +68 s	G4 / G4 correct	18:30 17:49	47:53	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Ramos Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 11–28 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 20 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: -16.9 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.45 km/h Running and total Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 47:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Total: 47:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 45.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 26	Seezar Alshoumari SYR	+77 s +74 s	G6 / G6 correct	17:03 18:09	48:01	Show details Prediction details: Seezar Alshoumari Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 14–30 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 26 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +77 s Time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +74 s Fehler: 2.9 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.9 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.88 km/h Running and total Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km) Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 48:01 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h) Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Total: 48:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 71 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 19	Pak Yiu Anson Wong HKG	+56 s +63 s	G4 / G4 correct	18:43 17:40	48:06	Show details Prediction details: Pak Yiu Anson Wong Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 16–28 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 19 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: -7.2 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.39 km/h Running and total Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 87 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 48:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:23 (42.3 km/h) Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km) Total: 48:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 49.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 15	Tsz Hin Yip HKG	+79 s +74 s	G6 / G4	17:14 17:12	48:12	Show details Prediction details: Tsz Hin Yip Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 15–27 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 15 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +79 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +74 s Fehler: 4.8 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.45 km/h Running and total Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km) Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 48:12 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h) Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Total: 48:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 72.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 25	Ka Ho Wong HKG	+80 s +75 s	G6 / G4	17:16 19:34	48:14	Show details Prediction details: Ka Ho Wong Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 15–28 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 25 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 10:25 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +75 s Fehler: 4.7 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h Running and total Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km) Error: −2:18 / −0:28 / km Overall prediction: 48:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h) Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km) Total: 48:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 73.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 17	Matthew Hermosa PHI	+69 s +88 s	G5 / G5 correct	17:26 16:39	48:20	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Hermosa Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 14–27 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 17 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: -19.0 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 7.9 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.02 km/h Running and total Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km) Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 48:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (40.3 km/h) Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km) Total: 48:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 63.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 9	Ruslan Karnilov UZB	+69 s +35 s	G5 / G2	18:05 17:18	48:59	Show details Prediction details: Ruslan Karnilov Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 22–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 33.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.8 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h Running and total Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 62 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 48:59 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:45 (40.3 km/h) Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km) Total: 48:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 62.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 27	Irienold Reig jr PHI	+114 s +88 s	G7 / G6	17:00 18:23	49:29	Show details Prediction details: Irienold Reig jr Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 23–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 10:59 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 25.6 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.9 s Gap behind: 13.6 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.87 km/h Running and total Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 49:29 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:59 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Total: 49:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 107.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 31	Parth Mirage IND	+82 s +73 s	G6 / G6 correct	18:55 19:15	49:53	Show details Prediction details: Parth Mirage Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 28–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +82 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +73 s Fehler: 8.6 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 6.5 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.85 km/h Running and total Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 49:53 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h) Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Total: 49:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 75.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 32	Po Shun Yemi Yick HKG	+102 s +83 s	G7 / G6	18:32 19:13	51:01	Show details Prediction details: Po Shun Yemi Yick Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 29–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +102 s Time: 10:47 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +83 s Fehler: 18.7 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 68 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 11.9 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h Running and total Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 57 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 51:01 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Total: 51:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 95.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 16	Poria Shami IRI	+91 s +79 s	G7 / G4	18:34 17:21	51:03	Show details Prediction details: Poria Shami Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 26–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +91 s Time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: 11.7 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 8.0 s Result: Group 4 (10 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.72 km/h Running and total Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 48 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km) Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 51:03 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Total: 51:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 84.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 34	Cheok Hei Lao MAC	+99 s +94 s	G7 / G6	19:40 20:28	52:09	Show details Prediction details: Cheok Hei Lao Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 31–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +99 s Time: 10:44 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +94 s Fehler: 4.7 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.0 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.76 km/h Running and total Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km) Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 52:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km) Total: 52:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 92.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 28	Yousuf Yaaqoub Alhanaee UAE	+127 s +92 s	G7 / G6	19:57 18:35	52:26	Show details Prediction details: Yousuf Yaaqoub Alhanaee Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 30–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +127 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: 35.4 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 45 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 22.8 s Result: Group 6 (8 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.81 km/h Running and total Run: 19:57 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 52:26 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 19:57 (3:59 / km) Total: 52:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 121.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 36	Chan Wai Wu MAC	+127 s +141 s	G7 / G8	21:49 23:27	54:18	Show details Prediction details: Chan Wai Wu Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 33–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +127 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +141 s Fehler: -13.8 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.6 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.84 km/h Running and total Run: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:24 / km Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:27 (4:41 / km) Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 54:18 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 21:49 (4:22 / km) Total: 54:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 121.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 23	Mohammed Al Gheilani OMA	+88 s +88 s	G7 / G5	22:34 17:17	55:03	Show details Prediction details: Mohammed Al Gheilani Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 34–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +88 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 0.1 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.5 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.43 km/h Running and total Run: 22:34 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:32 / km Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 33 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km) Error: +5:17 / +1:03 / km Overall prediction: 55:03 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:21 (39.8 km/h) Run: 22:34 (4:31 / km) Total: 55:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 82.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 35	Laith Al-Nimer JOR	+150 s +132 s	G8 / G7	18:28 21:20	55:20	Show details Prediction details: Laith Al-Nimer Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 35–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +150 s Time: 11:35 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +132 s Fehler: 18.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h Running and total Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (4:16 / km) Error: −2:52 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: 55:20 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:35 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:22 (34.9 km/h) Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km) Total: 55:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 144.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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