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Junior Men

28.09.2025 KAZ
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Junior Cup Turkestan

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 41/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 89.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.9
Mean swim error26.8 s
Mean bike-speed error3.57 km/h
Correct bike groups8/17
No history2
Within the 80% range15.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Yelmurat Kanay
KAZ
+14 s
+30 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:05
16:35
 47:31
Show details
Prediction details: Yelmurat Kanay

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -15.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:31
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 47:31
2 / 2 Arseniy Shevchenko
KAZ
+8 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:00
16:26
 48:26
Show details
Prediction details: Arseniy Shevchenko

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -20.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:26
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:26
3 / 4 Ilya Krupyakov
KAZ
+35 s
+88 s
G3 / G1
 16:13
16:54
 48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Ilya Krupyakov

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -53.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:28
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
4 / 12 Amanat Orazbek
KAZ
+23 s
+88 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:01
17:52
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Amanat Orazbek

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -64.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 11.4 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:06 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Alham Murat
KAZ
+5 s
+51 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:27
17:46
 48:53
Show details
Prediction details: Alham Murat

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -45.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:53
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:53
6 / 5 Matvei Shevnin
KAZ
+14 s
+61 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:32
16:59
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Matvei Shevnin

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -46.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:58
7 / 7 Vladislav Kelgin
KAZ
+19 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:41
17:42
 49:07
Show details
Prediction details: Vladislav Kelgin

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:07
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:07
8 / 8 Kuanysh Bekenov
KAZ
+37 s
+49 s
G3 / G1
 17:00
18:26
 49:15
Show details
Prediction details: Kuanysh Bekenov

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -12.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 12.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:15
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:38 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 49:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Artyom Bedrin
KAZ
+6 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:31
20:07
 49:57
Show details
Prediction details: Artyom Bedrin

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 12–13
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -23.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:36 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 49:57
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:57
10 / 3 Nikita Dubinskiy
KAZ
+9 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:42
16:44
 51:08
Show details
Prediction details: Nikita Dubinskiy

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 13–14
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -18.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +2:58 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 51:08
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Total: 51:08
11 / 9 Alinabi Maralbekov
KAZ
+82 s
+86 s
G5 / G1
 17:48
18:50
 53:43
Show details
Prediction details: Alinabi Maralbekov

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.5 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:43
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:30 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 53:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 54.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16 Salamatov Adamkhan
KGZ
+84 s
+83 s
G5 / G2
 18:15
19:54
 54:10
Show details
Prediction details: Salamatov Adamkhan

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 11:32
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: −1:39 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 54:10
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:32 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 54:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 61.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Daniil Titarenko
KAZ
+57 s
+77 s
G5 / G2
 24:32
19:14
 1:00:27
Show details
Prediction details: Daniil Titarenko

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -20.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 25.5 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:32 (4:54 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Error: +5:18 / +1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:27
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 24:32 (4:54 / km)
Total: 1:00:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 34 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Nurasyl Saparbek
KAZ
+49 s
+93 s
G4 / G2
17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Nurasyl Saparbek

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:57
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: -43.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.4 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (36.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 26.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Bekasyl Yessimkhan
KAZ
+96 s
+47 s
G5 / G2
19:07
Show details
Prediction details: Bekasyl Yessimkhan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 11:44
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 49.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:44 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 73.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Alexandr Sinelnik
KAZ
+85 s
+97 s
G5 / G2
19:45
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandr Sinelnik

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: -11.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 62.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Maksim Verbovoy
KAZ
+0 s
+92 s
G0 / G2
23:02
Show details
Prediction details: Maksim Verbovoy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:02 (4:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Nikita Belashov
KAZ
+98 s
+92 s
G5 / G2
24:09
Show details
Prediction details: Nikita Belashov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 11:46
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (8 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:09 (4:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:46 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 75.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Danai Mairambekov
KGZ
+0 s
+210 s
G0 / G3
21:42
Show details
Prediction details: Danai Mairambekov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +210 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.