Prediction comparison

PTS4 Men

12.10.2025 Inage Seaside Park JPN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Asia Triathlon Para Championships and Para Cup Chiba City

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 41/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 71.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.2

Mean swim error103.2 s

Mean bike-speed error3.18 km/h

Correct bike groups0/5

No history2

Within the 80% range28.6 %

						Details
1 / 2	Keiya Kaneko JPN	+69 s +100 s	G1 / G2	22:53 19:12	57:23	Show details Prediction details: Keiya Kaneko Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 14:42 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: -30.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 12.6 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h Running and total Run: 22:53 (4:35 / km) Historical basis: 4:37 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:12 (3:50 / km) Error: +3:41 / +0:44 / km Overall prediction: 57:23 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:42 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:21 (36.0 km/h) Run: 22:53 (4:35 / km) Total: 57:23
2 / 1	Hideki Uda JPN	+199 s +0 s	G2 / G1	19:30 17:51	58:44	Show details Prediction details: Hideki Uda Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +199 s Time: 16:52 Pace: 2:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 198.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 33.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 116.5 s Gap behind: 19.9 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.17 km/h Running and total Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km) Error: +1:39 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 58:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:52 (2:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:35 (33.8 km/h) Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Total: 58:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:47 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m About 125.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +73.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Alex Silverio PHI	+218 s +230 s	G2 / G3	22:09 22:10	1:01:23	Show details Prediction details: Alex Silverio Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +218 s Time: 17:11 Pace: 2:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +230 s Fehler: -11.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 19.9 s Gap behind: 263.7 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.47 km/h Running and total Run: 22:09 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.06 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:10 (4:26 / km) Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:23 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 17:11 (2:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:35 (33.8 km/h) Run: 22:09 (4:26 / km) Total: 1:01:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:46 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m About 145.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +73.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Chikara Ara JPN	+82 s +13 s	G2 / G5	23:16 21:57	1:02:30	Show details Prediction details: Chikara Ara Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +82 s Time: 14:55 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 69.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 33.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.6 s Gap behind: 116.5 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 30.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.70 km/h Running and total Run: 23:16 (4:39 / km) Historical basis: 4:41 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:57 (4:23 / km) Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:30 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:55 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:35 (33.8 km/h) Run: 23:16 (4:39 / km) Total: 1:02:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:46 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m About 8.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +73.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7	Huafrid Billimoria IND	+482 s +276 s	G3 / G6	28:27 27:14	1:13:04	Show details Prediction details: Huafrid Billimoria Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +482 s Time: 21:35 Pace: 2:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +276 s Fehler: 206.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 263.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h Running and total Run: 28:27 (5:41 / km) Historical basis: 5:39 / km Best comparable pace: 5:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:14 (5:27 / km) Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:13:04 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 21:35 (2:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:35 (32.8 km/h) Run: 28:27 (5:41 / km) Total: 1:13:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 14:46 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m About 408.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +73.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Xiaozhen Qi CHN	+0 s +274 s	G0 / G4	19:01		Show details Prediction details: Xiaozhen Qi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:33 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +274 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:33 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Isahito Fukao JPN	+0 s +252 s	G0 / G6	26:05		Show details Prediction details: Isahito Fukao Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:33 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +252 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 33.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:05 (5:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:33 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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