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PTVI Men

12.10.2025 Inage Seaside Park JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Para Championships and Para Cup Chiba City

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 60/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.5
Mean swim error27.9 s
Mean bike-speed error5.95 km/h
Correct bike groups2/4
No history1
Within the 80% range20.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Ryota Kashiki B2
JPN
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 19:16
18:57
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Ryota Kashiki B2

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:52 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:17 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 50:40
2 / 1 Yosuke Yamada B3
JPN
+7 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:53
19:35
 52:17
Show details
Prediction details: Yosuke Yamada B3

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 11:59
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 136.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 52:17
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:59 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:17 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Total: 52:17
3 / 2 Dastan Kamchybekov B1
KGZ
+144 s
+117 s
G2 / G4
 19:03
18:36
 54:30
Show details
Prediction details: Dastan Kamchybekov B1

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +144 s
Time: 14:16
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +117 s
Fehler: 26.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 136.5 s
Gap behind: 100.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.66 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 54:30
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:16 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:03 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 54:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:56
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 139.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Zhalaldin Abduvaliev B1
KGZ
+244 s
+165 s
G3 / G3
correct 		20:11
19:35
 1:06:51
Show details
Prediction details: Zhalaldin Abduvaliev B1

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +244 s
Time: 15:56
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +165 s
Fehler: 78.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 100.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -13.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:51
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:56 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:36 (28.2 km/h)
Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:06:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:56
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 240 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Kiyoshi Hanamure B3
JPN
+0 s
+108 s
G0 / G4
21:18
Show details
Prediction details: Kiyoshi Hanamure B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +108 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:52 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.