Prediction comparison
Youth Women
13.12.2025
Fujairah, United Arab Emirates
UAE
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon West Asian Championship Fujairah
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Add missing course distances
The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.
Prediction model used
Modell v14
Default values
Prediction quality
0/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error40.0 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 / 1 |
Charlotte Thurston
UAE
|
+23 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G1
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +23 s
Time:
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 4 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:29 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 2 |
Mia Sahyoun
LBN
|
+101 s
+38 s
|
G0 / G2
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +101 s
Time:
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 63.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.84 %,
Sicherheit 4 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:52 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 3 |
Sofya Aloraibi
BRN
|
+67 s
+33 s
|
G0 / G3
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +67 s
Time:
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 34.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.88 %,
Sicherheit 8 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:18 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|