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U15 Women

06.12.2025 Jeddah KSA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Asia Triathlon Youth and U15 Championships Jeddah

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 06.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 39/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 38.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 61.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.6
Mean swim error22.7 s
Mean bike-speed error6.75 km/h
Correct bike groups3/8
No history5
Within the 80% range7.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Aira Martha Ardistri
INA
+17 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		7:42
7:21
 26:24
Show details
Prediction details: Aira Martha Ardistri

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:12
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:42 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:21 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 26:24
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:12 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:21 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 7:42 (3:51 / km)
Total: 26:24
2 / 1 Alua Nurmuhamet
KAZ
+21 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:17
7:16
 26:59
Show details
Prediction details: Alua Nurmuhamet

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:16
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:17 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:16 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 26:59
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:16 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:21 (32.4 km/h)
Run: 8:17 (4:09 / km)
Total: 26:59
3 / 5 Yuet Hei Ng
HKG
+25 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:02
8:05
 27:16
Show details
Prediction details: Yuet Hei Ng

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 20.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:02 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:05 (4:03 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 27:16
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 6:20 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:49 (31.6 km/h)
Run: 8:02 (4:01 / km)
Total: 27:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Wei Lo
TPE
+47 s
+15 s
G3 / G1
 7:57
8:08
 28:57
Show details
Prediction details: Wei Lo

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 6:42
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 32.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -9.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:57 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:08 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 28:57
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 6:42 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:10 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 7:57 (3:59 / km)
Total: 28:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Kaleriya Shneider
KAZ
+51 s
+11 s
G3 / G1
 8:00
7:14
 29:00
Show details
Prediction details: Kaleriya Shneider

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 6:46
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 39.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 23.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -9.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:14 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 29:00
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:46 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:10 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 8:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 29:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 25.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Mikayla Sze Kee Ng
SGP
+46 s
+39 s
G3 / G5
 9:12
8:50
 30:12
Show details
Prediction details: Mikayla Sze Kee Ng

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 6:41
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 20.9 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:12 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:50 (4:25 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 30:12
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:41 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:10 (29.5 km/h)
Run: 9:12 (4:36 / km)
Total: 30:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 21.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11 Mia Sahyoun
LBN
+95 s
+64 s
G4 / G6
 9:05
8:53
 33:44
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Sahyoun

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 7:30
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 31.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -7.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:05 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:53 (4:27 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 33:44
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 7:30 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 23:04 (25.4 km/h)
Run: 9:05 (4:33 / km)
Total: 33:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 70.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 13 Sara Fararjeh
JOR
+75 s
+42 s
G4 / G7
 10:47
9:30
 35:26
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Fararjeh

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 7:10
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 32.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.8 s
Gap behind: 20.5 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:47 (5:24 / km)
Historical basis: 5:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:30 (4:45 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 35:26
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:10 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 23:04 (25.4 km/h)
Run: 10:47 (5:24 / km)
Total: 35:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:20
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 49.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Hiu Yau Yeung
HKG
+0 s
+55 s
G0 / G4
7:59
Show details
Prediction details: Hiu Yau Yeung

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:55
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:55 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Chung Ning Shum
HKG
+0 s
+30 s
G0 / G3
8:17
Show details
Prediction details: Chung Ning Shum

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:55
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:17 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:55 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Ana Laura Stein
UAE
+0 s
+29 s
G0 / G4
8:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Laura Stein

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:55
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:05 (4:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:55 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Heulwen Chau
HKG
+0 s
+58 s
G0 / G4
8:32
Show details
Prediction details: Heulwen Chau

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:55
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:32 (4:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:55 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Maya Sophia Lazar
ROU
+0 s
+46 s
G0 / G5
9:50
Show details
Prediction details: Maya Sophia Lazar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:55
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:50 (4:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:55 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.