Prediction comparison

Youth Men

06.12.2025 Jeddah KSA

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Asia Triathlon Youth and U15 Championships Jeddah

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 06.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 58/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 76.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.1

Mean swim error19.0 s

Mean bike-speed error3.61 km/h

Correct bike groups7/27

No history3

Within the 80% range36.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 8	Nok Hei Wong HKG	+28 s +13 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:19 6:39	21:56	Show details Prediction details: Nok Hei Wong Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 8 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 5:39 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 15.4 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h Running and total Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 33 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:39 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 21:56 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:39 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 6:19 (3:09 / km) Total: 21:56
2 / 2	Parsa Rasouli Jazi IRI	+13 s +17 s	G2 / G1	6:25 6:17	22:04	Show details Prediction details: Parsa Rasouli Jazi Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 5:24 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: -4.3 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 10.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.05 km/h Running and total Run: 6:25 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.72 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:17 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 22:04 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 5:24 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (38.5 km/h) Run: 6:25 (3:13 / km) Total: 22:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:23 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 0.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Arseniy Shevchenko KAZ	+30 s +15 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:29 6:24	22:06	Show details Prediction details: Arseniy Shevchenko Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–11 Top-10 probability: 88 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 5:41 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 14.7 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h Running and total Run: 6:29 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:24 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 22:06 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 5:41 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 6:29 (3:15 / km) Total: 22:06
4 / 5	Alham Murat KAZ	+10 s +16 s	G2 / G1	6:47 6:31	22:26	Show details Prediction details: Alham Murat Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: -5.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h Running and total Run: 6:47 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:16 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 22:26 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (38.5 km/h) Run: 6:47 (3:23 / km) Total: 22:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:18 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 2.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 15	Shunsuke Takahashi JPN	+30 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:52 7:19	22:29	Show details Prediction details: Shunsuke Takahashi Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–15 Top-10 probability: 60 % Result: 15 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 5:41 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 23.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h Running and total Run: 6:52 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:19 (3:40 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 22:29 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 5:41 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 6:52 (3:26 / km) Total: 22:29
6 / 14	Wahyu Tri Utomo Sembiring INA	+25 s +29 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:55 7:07	22:32	Show details Prediction details: Wahyu Tri Utomo Sembiring Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–12 Top-10 probability: 68 % Result: 14 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 5:36 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: -4.3 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 52 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h Running and total Run: 6:55 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:07 (3:34 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 22:32 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 5:36 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 6:55 (3:28 / km) Total: 22:32
7 / 26	Azizillo Kuchkarov UZB	+6 s +13 s	G2 / G1	7:01 8:30	22:40	Show details Prediction details: Azizillo Kuchkarov Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–11 Top-10 probability: 84 % Result: 26 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 5:17 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -6.8 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 81 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h Running and total Run: 7:01 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:30 (4:15 / km) Error: −1:29 / −0:45 / km Overall prediction: 22:40 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 5:17 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (38.5 km/h) Run: 7:01 (3:30 / km) Total: 22:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:16 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 1.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 21	Abdulkhodiev Azizullo UZB	+23 s +34 s	G1 / G1 correct	7:12 7:55	22:49	Show details Prediction details: Abdulkhodiev Azizullo Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 5–16 Top-10 probability: 41 % Result: 21 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 5:34 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -11.3 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 77 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.0 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h Running and total Run: 7:12 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 53 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:55 (3:58 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 22:49 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:34 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 7:12 (3:36 / km) Total: 22:49
9 / 17	Aliasghar Keshavarzian IRI	+6 s +0 s	G2 / G1	7:31 7:28	23:10	Show details Prediction details: Aliasghar Keshavarzian Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 11–15 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 17 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 5:17 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 6.4 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h Running and total Run: 7:31 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:28 (3:44 / km) Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 23:10 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 5:17 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:26 (38.5 km/h) Run: 7:31 (3:45 / km) Total: 23:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
10 / 3	Borna Naghieh IRI	+45 s +8 s	G5 / G1	6:16 6:14	23:14	Show details Prediction details: Borna Naghieh Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 7–16 Top-10 probability: 38 % Result: 3 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 5:56 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 37.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 7.8 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.72 km/h Running and total Run: 6:16 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.51 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:14 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 23:14 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 5:56 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 6:16 (3:08 / km) Total: 23:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:47 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 8.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 30	Albara Alromaihi BRN	+32 s +35 s	G1 / G3	7:40 8:33	23:17	Show details Prediction details: Albara Alromaihi Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 15–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 5:43 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -3.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 34 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h Running and total Run: 7:40 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:33 (4:17 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 23:17 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 5:43 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 7:40 (3:50 / km) Total: 23:17
12 / 11	Lok Shi Lam HKG	+56 s +27 s	G5 / G1	6:37 6:49	23:35	Show details Prediction details: Lok Shi Lam Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 6–22 Top-10 probability: 28 % Result: 11 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 6:07 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 29.2 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.38 km/h Running and total Run: 6:37 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.46 %, Sicherheit 32 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:49 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 23:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:07 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 6:37 (3:18 / km) Total: 23:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:47 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 19.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 7	Matvei Shevnin KAZ	+53 s +23 s	G5 / G1	6:38 6:37	23:36	Show details Prediction details: Matvei Shevnin Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 10–20 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 7 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 6:04 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 29.9 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.28 km/h Running and total Run: 6:38 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:37 (3:19 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 23:36 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:04 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 6:38 (3:19 / km) Total: 23:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:52 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 11.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 18	Matthew Green UAE	+32 s +38 s	G1 / G1 correct	7:59 7:31	23:36	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Green Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 17–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 5:43 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.79 km/h Running and total Run: 7:59 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:31 (3:46 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 23:36 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 5:43 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: 7:59 (4:00 / km) Total: 23:36
15 / 23	Peter Sancho Del Rosario PHI	+48 s +39 s	G5 / G1	6:44 8:11	23:42	Show details Prediction details: Peter Sancho Del Rosario Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 9–21 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 23 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 5:59 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 9.2 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.97 km/h Running and total Run: 6:44 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:11 (4:06 / km) Error: −1:27 / −0:44 / km Overall prediction: 23:42 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:59 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 6:44 (3:22 / km) Total: 23:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:47 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 11.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 24	Auscar Tsang HKG	+37 s +18 s	G4 / G1	7:13 8:24	23:43	Show details Prediction details: Auscar Tsang Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 6–22 Top-10 probability: 28 % Result: 24 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 18.7 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.68 km/h Running and total Run: 7:13 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:24 (4:12 / km) Error: −1:11 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 23:43 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:48 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:52 (37.4 km/h) Run: 7:13 (3:36 / km) Total: 23:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 0.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 1	Sadra Ebrahimi IRI	+46 s +15 s	G5 / G1	6:48 6:16	23:46	Show details Prediction details: Sadra Ebrahimi Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 8–22 Top-10 probability: 25 % Result: 1 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 5:57 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 31.4 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.09 km/h Running and total Run: 6:48 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:16 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:32 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 23:46 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:57 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 6:48 (3:24 / km) Total: 23:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:47 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 9.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 12	Yan Tao Shum HKG	+57 s +40 s	G5 / G1	6:56 6:57	23:54	Show details Prediction details: Yan Tao Shum Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 9–23 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 12 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 6:08 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 17.4 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.07 km/h Running and total Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:57 (3:29 / km) Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 23:54 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 6:08 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Total: 23:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:47 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 20.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20	Euan Arrow Ramos PHI	+38 s +35 s	G4 / G1	7:26 7:57	23:56	Show details Prediction details: Euan Arrow Ramos Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 13–22 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 20 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 5:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 2.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 7.8 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.36 km/h Running and total Run: 7:26 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:57 (3:59 / km) Error: −0:31 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 23:56 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:52 (37.4 km/h) Run: 7:26 (3:43 / km) Total: 23:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
20 / 16	Mukhammadyusuf Abdukhalilov UZB	+57 s +28 s	G5 / G1	7:19 7:23	24:17	Show details Prediction details: Mukhammadyusuf Abdukhalilov Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 15–24 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 16 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 6:08 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 28.8 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.72 km/h Running and total Run: 7:19 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:23 (3:42 / km) Error: −0:04 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 24:17 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:08 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 7:19 (3:39 / km) Total: 24:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 20.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19	Gleb Tuchkov UZB	+50 s +29 s	G5 / G1	8:05 7:39	25:03	Show details Prediction details: Gleb Tuchkov Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 19–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 6:01 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 21.1 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.72 km/h Running and total Run: 8:05 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 32 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:39 (3:50 / km) Error: +0:26 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 25:03 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:01 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:00 (37.1 km/h) Run: 8:05 (4:03 / km) Total: 25:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 13.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 10	Orinbasarov Abilaykhan UZB	+74 s +40 s	G7 / G1	6:56 6:50	25:22	Show details Prediction details: Orinbasarov Abilaykhan Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 18–26 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 10 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 6:25 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 34.0 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Gap ahead: 10.3 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -7.47 km/h Running and total Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:50 (3:25 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 25:22 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:25 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (34.6 km/h) Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km) Total: 25:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 37.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 22	Dexter Button UAE	+64 s +55 s	G6 / G2	7:17 7:17	25:27	Show details Prediction details: Dexter Button Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 22–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 6:15 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 8.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.7 km/h Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 10.3 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.20 km/h Running and total Run: 7:17 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:17 (3:39 / km) Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 25:27 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 6:15 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 17:07 (34.7 km/h) Run: 7:17 (3:38 / km) Total: 25:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 27.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 28	Salamatov Adamkhan KGZ	+76 s +42 s	G7 / G3	7:30 7:39	25:56	Show details Prediction details: Salamatov Adamkhan Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 23–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 6:27 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 34.1 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 61.0 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.64 km/h Running and total Run: 7:30 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:39 (3:50 / km) Error: −0:09 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 25:56 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:27 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (34.6 km/h) Run: 7:30 (3:45 / km) Total: 25:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:30 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 57.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 29	Sultan Yousef Laram QAT	+137 s +31 s	G8 / G2	8:44 8:15	30:22	Show details Prediction details: Sultan Yousef Laram Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +137 s Time: 7:28 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 106.1 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.7 km/h Gap ahead: 61.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -8.95 km/h Running and total Run: 8:44 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:24 / km Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:15 (4:08 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 30:22 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:28 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:21 (30.7 km/h) Run: 8:44 (4:22 / km) Total: 30:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:48 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m About 100.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Keannan Fathir Arrashy Rolland INA	+0 s +17 s	G0 / G1	6:31		Show details Prediction details: Keannan Fathir Arrashy Rolland Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:11 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 5:11 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Main Takata JPN	+34 s +31 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:48		Show details Prediction details: Main Takata Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 5:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 2.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.44 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:48 (3:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 5:45 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:04 (39.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 13	Takumi Ito JPN	+1 s +2 s	G3 / G1	6:59		Show details Prediction details: Takumi Ito Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1 s Time: 5:12 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: -1.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 38.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.57 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:59 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 5:12 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:39 (38.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25	En-Yu Tien TPE	+0 s +31 s	G0 / G1	8:23		Show details Prediction details: En-Yu Tien Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 29–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:11 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:23 (4:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 5:11 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27	Shang-Yi Chiang TPE	+0 s +42 s	G0 / G1	8:43		Show details Prediction details: Shang-Yi Chiang Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 30–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 5:11 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (26 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:43 (4:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 5:11 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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