Prediction comparison

Elite Men

21.09.2025 Lacs de l'Eau d'Heure BEL

Race information and calculation basis

2025 BEL Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 43/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 46.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 73.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error11.1

Mean swim error22.8 s

Mean bike-speed error5.75 km/h

Correct bike groups3/28

No history2

Within the 80% range13.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 8	Dieter Boeye BEL	+55 s +72 s	G2 / G1	32:58 37:37	1:29:29	Show details Prediction details: Dieter Boeye Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 9–12 Top-10 probability: 70 % Result: 8 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 18:44 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -16.6 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.61 km/h Running and total Run: 32:58 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.46 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:37 (3:46 / km) Error: −4:39 / −0:28 / km Overall prediction: 1:29:29 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 32:58 (3:18 / km) Total: 1:29:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 40.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 25	Joris Basslé BEL	+18 s +0 s	G2 / G1	33:07 40:46	1:29:38	Show details Prediction details: Joris Basslé Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 8–16 Top-10 probability: 55 % Result: 25 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 18:07 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 18.0 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.0 s Gap behind: 4.9 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.28 km/h Running and total Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:46 (4:05 / km) Error: −7:39 / −0:46 / km Overall prediction: 1:29:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:07 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km) Total: 1:29:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 / 2	Jasper Devos BEL	+40 s +26 s	G2 / G1	33:27 34:54	1:29:58	Show details Prediction details: Jasper Devos Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 60 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 13.9 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.3 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.02 km/h Running and total Run: 33:27 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:54 (3:29 / km) Error: −1:27 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:29:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:29 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 33:27 (3:21 / km) Total: 1:29:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 25 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 12	Balte Thijs BEL	+55 s +36 s	G2 / G1	33:39 38:10	1:30:10	Show details Prediction details: Balte Thijs Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 9–13 Top-10 probability: 36 % Result: 12 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 18:44 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: 19.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.89 km/h Running and total Run: 33:39 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:10 (3:49 / km) Error: −4:31 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 1:30:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 33:39 (3:22 / km) Total: 1:30:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 40.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6	Hugo Philippe BEL	+43 s +100 s	G2 / G2 correct	34:01 34:52	1:30:32	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Philippe Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 8–21 Top-10 probability: 38 % Result: 6 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 18:32 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: -56.6 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.23 km/h Running and total Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:52 (3:29 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:30:32 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:32 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km) Total: 1:30:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
6 / 4	Cis Huyghe BEL	+69 s +21 s	G3 / G1	34:24 35:36	1:31:36	Show details Prediction details: Cis Huyghe Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 10–18 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 18:58 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 48.3 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.43 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.72 km/h Running and total Run: 34:24 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:36 (3:34 / km) Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:58 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 34:24 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:31:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 3	Neal Van Vaerenbergh BEL	+78 s +81 s	G3 / G1	34:39 35:47	1:31:51	Show details Prediction details: Neal Van Vaerenbergh Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 9–23 Top-10 probability: 23 % Result: 3 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +78 s Time: 19:07 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: -2.8 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.2 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.22 km/h Running and total Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:47 (3:35 / km) Error: −1:08 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:07 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km) Total: 1:31:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 63.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7	Pep Delvaux BEL	+56 s +44 s	G2 / G1	35:35 37:21	1:32:06	Show details Prediction details: Pep Delvaux Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 12–22 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 7 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 18:45 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 12.4 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.85 km/h Running and total Run: 35:35 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:21 (3:44 / km) Error: −1:46 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:45 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 35:35 (3:34 / km) Total: 1:32:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 41.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 22	Runar De Meulenaere BEL	+29 s +3 s	G2 / G3	35:40 37:49	1:32:11	Show details Prediction details: Runar De Meulenaere Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 12–21 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 22 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 18:18 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 25.6 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.7 s Gap behind: 11.3 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.62 km/h Running and total Run: 35:40 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 32 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:49 (3:47 / km) Error: −2:09 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 35:40 (3:34 / km) Total: 1:32:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 14.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13	Tuur Lemmens BEL	+10 s +5 s	G1 / G2	36:20 37:11	1:32:14	Show details Prediction details: Tuur Lemmens Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 14–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 17:59 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 4.6 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.91 km/h Running and total Run: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:59 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:43 (43.1 km/h) Run: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:32:14
11 / 27	Lucas Dal BEL	+11 s +14 s	G1 / G2	36:23 40:14	1:32:17	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Dal Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 15–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 18:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -3.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 58 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 7.0 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.88 km/h Running and total Run: 36:23 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:14 (4:01 / km) Error: −3:51 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:17 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 18:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:43 (43.1 km/h) Run: 36:23 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:32:17
12 / 5	Jasper Sabbe BEL	+94 s +81 s	G3 / G1	35:09 36:30	1:32:21	Show details Prediction details: Jasper Sabbe Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 13–20 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 5 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 19:23 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: 13.4 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 3.6 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.24 km/h Running and total Run: 35:09 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:30 (3:39 / km) Error: −1:21 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:21 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 19:23 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 35:09 (3:31 / km) Total: 1:32:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 79.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 17	Wannes Ares BEL	+67 s +96 s	G3 / G2	35:34 37:38	1:32:46	Show details Prediction details: Wannes Ares Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 14–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 18:56 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: -29.3 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 45 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.17 km/h Running and total Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:38 (3:46 / km) Error: −2:04 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:56 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km) Total: 1:32:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 16	Tenzin Vanwijnsberghe BEL	+94 s +53 s	G3 / G2	36:04 37:22	1:33:16	Show details Prediction details: Tenzin Vanwijnsberghe Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 16–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 19:23 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 41.2 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.3 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.52 km/h Running and total Run: 36:04 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:22 (3:44 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:16 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:23 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 36:04 (3:36 / km) Total: 1:33:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
15 / 14	Tom Van Cappellen BEL	+89 s +103 s	G3 / G2	36:11 37:26	1:33:23	Show details Prediction details: Tom Van Cappellen Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 17–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: 19:18 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +103 s Fehler: -14.1 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.1 s Gap behind: 5.3 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.98 km/h Running and total Run: 36:11 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:26 (3:45 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:18 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 36:11 (3:37 / km) Total: 1:33:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
16 / 18	Emiel Torfs BEL	+53 s +50 s	G2 / G1	37:07 40:03	1:33:38	Show details Prediction details: Emiel Torfs Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 19–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 18:42 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: 2.5 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.78 km/h Running and total Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:03 (4:00 / km) Error: −2:56 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:38 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km) Total: 1:33:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 37.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 1	Ibe Baelde BEL	+48 s +29 s	G2 / G1	37:19 34:30	1:33:50	Show details Prediction details: Ibe Baelde Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 20–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 18:37 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 19.4 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 60 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.01 km/h Running and total Run: 37:19 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.51 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:30 (3:27 / km) Error: +2:49 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:37 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 37:19 (3:44 / km) Total: 1:33:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 33.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 24	Jack Douglas BEL	+23 s +38 s	G2 / G2 correct	39:19 39:20	1:35:50	Show details Prediction details: Jack Douglas Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 24–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 18:12 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -15.1 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.9 s Gap behind: 5.7 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.97 km/h Running and total Run: 39:19 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:50 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:12 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: 39:19 (3:56 / km) Total: 1:35:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 9	Simon De Cuyper BEL	+107 s +77 s	G4 / G2	36:58 35:48	1:37:21	Show details Prediction details: Simon De Cuyper Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 24–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +107 s Time: 19:36 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: 29.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 41.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 10.1 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.26 km/h Running and total Run: 36:58 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 35:48 (3:35 / km) Error: +1:10 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:37:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:36 (41.0 km/h) Run: 36:58 (3:42 / km) Total: 1:37:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 92 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 10	Jarne Ameye BEL	+154 s +132 s	G6 / G2	34:17 35:38	1:39:23	Show details Prediction details: Jarne Ameye Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +154 s Time: 20:23 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +132 s Fehler: 21.7 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 36.7 s Gap behind: 39.3 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h Running and total Run: 34:17 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:38 (3:34 / km) Error: −1:21 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:23 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:23 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:53 (38.4 km/h) Run: 34:17 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:39:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 138.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 11	Ben Vyvey BEL	+65 s +100 s	G3 / G2	44:31 36:07	1:41:43	Show details Prediction details: Ben Vyvey Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: -34.7 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.97 km/h Running and total Run: 44:31 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:34 / km Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:07 (3:37 / km) Error: +8:24 / +0:50 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:43 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: 44:31 (4:27 / km) Total: 1:41:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Simon Schryvers BEL	+101 s +71 s	G3 / G2	37:24		Show details Prediction details: Simon Schryvers Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 19:30 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: 29.6 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.30 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:24 (3:44 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 19:30 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 85.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19	Ward Denolf BEL	+0 s +55 s	G0 / G2	38:14		Show details Prediction details: Ward Denolf Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 29–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 17:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:14 (3:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 17:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20	Giani Vanden Broucke BEL	+98 s +161 s	G3 / G4	35:06		Show details Prediction details: Giani Vanden Broucke Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 20 Deviation: -20 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +98 s Time: 19:27 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +161 s Fehler: -63.0 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.6 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.41 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:06 (3:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 83.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21	Louis Raskin BEL	+117 s +80 s	G5 / G2	38:42		Show details Prediction details: Louis Raskin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 21 Deviation: -21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +117 s Time: 19:46 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: 37.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.1 s Gap behind: 36.7 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:42 (3:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 19:46 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:20 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 102.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23	Michael Rosu BEL	+59 s +89 s	G2 / G2 correct	38:59		Show details Prediction details: Michael Rosu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 23 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 18:48 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: -30.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 43.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.42 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:59 (3:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 18:48 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:32 (43.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 44.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26	Alexis Krug BEL	+80 s +91 s	G3 / G2	39:35		Show details Prediction details: Alexis Krug Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 26 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 19:09 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +91 s Fehler: -11.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 9.1 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:35 (3:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 64.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28	Lowie Steenackers BEL	+0 s +96 s	G0 / G2	40:44		Show details Prediction details: Lowie Steenackers Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 30–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 17:49 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:44 (4:04 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 17:49 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 29	Maarten Appermans BEL	+74 s +50 s	G3 / G2	40:37		Show details Prediction details: Maarten Appermans Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 29 Deviation: -29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 19:03 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: 24.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 4.2 s Result: Group 2 (17 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.51 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:37 (4:04 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 55:31 (43.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 59.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30	Emilio Hernaert BEL	+193 s +192 s	G6 / G4	37:59		Show details Prediction details: Emilio Hernaert Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 30 Deviation: -30 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +193 s Time: 21:02 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +192 s Fehler: 1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 39.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.56 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:59 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 21:02 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:53 (38.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:04 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 178.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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