Prediction comparison

Elite Men

13.06.2026 Gomel BLR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 BLR Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 71/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 56 früheren Rennen und 1651 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 56 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.3

Mean swim error41.5 s

Mean bike-speed error1.52 km/h

Correct bike groups1/7

No history0

Within the 80% range85.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Aliaksandr Vasilevich BLR	+12 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:25 16:38	45:36	Show details Prediction details: Aliaksandr Vasilevich Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 11.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 41.4 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h Running and total Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:59 (41.4 km/h) Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:36
2 / 1	Mikita Katsianeu BLR	+26 s +0 s	G2 / G1	16:29 16:01	46:37	Show details Prediction details: Mikita Katsianeu Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 26.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 40.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 5.1 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.20 km/h Running and total Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 46:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.4 km/h) Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Total: 46:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 11.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Marat Veratsennikau BLR	+31 s +3 s	G2 / G1	16:56 17:11	47:04	Show details Prediction details: Marat Veratsennikau Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 10:06 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 28.1 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 40.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.1 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 43.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.23 km/h Running and total Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 47:04 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (40.4 km/h) Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Total: 47:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:51 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 15.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Fyodor Vikentiev AIN	+37 s +71 s	G3 / G2	17:25 18:07	48:00	Show details Prediction details: Fyodor Vikentiev Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: -34.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 7.8 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 48:00 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (40.0 km/h) Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Total: 48:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 21.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Mikita Zabaronka BLR	+48 s +72 s	G4 / G3	17:46 19:06	49:50	Show details Prediction details: Mikita Zabaronka Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -24.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 132.4 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h Running and total Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km) Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 49:50 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:16 (38.3 km/h) Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Total: 49:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 32.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	Daniil Padolski BLR	+44 s +142 s	G4 / G5	18:35 18:14	50:39	Show details Prediction details: Daniil Padolski Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 10:19 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +142 s Fehler: -97.7 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.8 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h Running and total Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km) Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 50:39 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:16 (38.3 km/h) Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Total: 50:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 29.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Pavel Varoshka AIN	+180 s +111 s	G5 / G4	19:21 19:18	54:27	Show details Prediction details: Pavel Varoshka Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +180 s Time: 12:35 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +111 s Fehler: 69.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 132.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h Running and total Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km) Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 54:27 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:35 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.4 km/h) Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km) Total: 54:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 165.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total