Prediction comparison

Elite Women

13.06.2026 Gomel BLR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 BLR Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 83/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 52 früheren Rennen und 1074 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 52 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.3

Mean swim error55.3 s

Mean bike-speed error2.27 km/h

Correct bike groups3/6

No history0

Within the 80% range100.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Hanna Maksimava BLR	+33 s +17 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:00 18:08	50:14	Show details Prediction details: Hanna Maksimava Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 15.9 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 36.7 km/h Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 11.9 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.14 km/h Running and total Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 50:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (36.7 km/h) Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km) Total: 50:14
2 / 3	Alina Sinevich BLR	+31 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	18:33 19:51	51:47	Show details Prediction details: Alina Sinevich Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 10:31 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 31.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 36.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.77 km/h Running and total Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 51:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (36.7 km/h) Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km) Total: 51:47
3 / 2	Sofya Kryvetskaya BLR	+72 s +21 s	G3 / G1	18:48 19:02	53:43	Show details Prediction details: Sofya Kryvetskaya Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 50.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.6 s Gap behind: 202.3 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.23 km/h Running and total Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 53:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (35.8 km/h) Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Total: 53:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 33.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Tatsiana Luksha BLR	+45 s +112 s	G2 / G2 correct	21:30 21:45	55:42	Show details Prediction details: Tatsiana Luksha Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 10:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: -67.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Gap ahead: 11.9 s Gap behind: 22.2 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.14 km/h Running and total Run: 21:30 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 55:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:27 (35.9 km/h) Run: 21:30 (4:18 / km) Total: 55:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Anastasiya Ramanchyk AIN	+274 s +123 s	G3 / G2	21:17 21:57	56:12	Show details Prediction details: Anastasiya Ramanchyk Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +274 s Time: 14:34 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +123 s Fehler: 150.9 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.30 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 202.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h Running and total Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:57 (4:23 / km) Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 56:12 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:34 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (35.8 km/h) Run: 21:17 (4:15 / km) Total: 56:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:40 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 234.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +39.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	Darya Bazhok AIN	+67 s +83 s	G3 / G2	22:02 23:12	56:57	Show details Prediction details: Darya Bazhok Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 11:07 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +83 s Fehler: -16.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.2 s Gap behind: 4.6 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h Running and total Run: 22:02 (4:24 / km) Historical basis: 4:19 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.93 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:12 (4:38 / km) Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 56:57 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (35.8 km/h) Run: 22:02 (4:24 / km) Total: 56:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 29.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

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Cycling

Running and total

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Running and total

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