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Elite Men

03.12.2025 Playa Agua Dulce PER
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Bolivarian Games Ayacucho and Lima

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 65/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 90.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.2
Mean swim error26.6 s
Mean bike-speed error35.38 km/h
Correct bike groups3/20
No history0
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Gabriel Terán Carvajal
ECU
+12 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:17
15:41
 18:25
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Terán Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 37.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 18:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Total: 18:25
2 / 4 Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa
ECU
+16 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:24
15:50
 18:32
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 10.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 9.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 37.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 18:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Total: 18:32
3 / 6 Yhousman David Perdomo Peña
VEN
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:49
16:30
 18:57
Show details
Prediction details: Yhousman David Perdomo Peña

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 37.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 18:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:52 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 18:57
4 / 7 Fernando Jacome
CHI
+33 s
+10 s
G3 / G1
 15:39
16:38
 19:14
Show details
Prediction details: Fernando Jacome

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 36.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 19:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:55 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 19:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Mateo Mendoza Burgos
CHI
+46 s
+5 s
G4 / G1
 15:51
15:48
 19:30
Show details
Prediction details: Mateo Mendoza Burgos

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 40.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 37.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 19:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:53 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Total: 19:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3 Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero
COL
+33 s
+5 s
G3 / G1
 16:02
15:45
 19:37
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 28.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 36.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 19:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:55 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 19:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5 Luis Miguel Velasquez Ramos
VEN
+40 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 16:25
16:26
 20:00
Show details
Prediction details: Luis Miguel Velasquez Ramos

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 36.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 36.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 20:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:55 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Total: 20:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 20.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 16 Diego Alessandro Sanchez Felix
PER
+28 s
+54 s
G2 / G4
 16:38
18:54
 20:13
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Alessandro Sanchez Felix

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -25.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 3.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 34.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 20:13
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:06 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 20:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Juan Giraldo Gomez
COL
+55 s
+24 s
G6 / G2
 16:15
17:04
 20:15
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Giraldo Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 31.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 4.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 35.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 20:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:03 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 20:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 35.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 9 Brener Valencia Nuñez
PER
+69 s
+8 s
G8 / G1
 16:16
17:18
 20:26
Show details
Prediction details: Brener Valencia Nuñez

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 61.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 35.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 20:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:01 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 20:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 49.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8 Cristian Torrealba
VEN
+25 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 17:07
16:59
 20:42
Show details
Prediction details: Cristian Torrealba

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 9.4 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 34.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:42
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:06 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 20:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Cristopher Alexander Cardenas Jimenez
VEN
+35 s
+13 s
G3 / G2
 17:32
18:53
 21:07
Show details
Prediction details: Cristopher Alexander Cardenas Jimenez

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 4.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 36.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 21:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 2:55 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Total: 21:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 15.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 10 Arturo Salinas
PER
+57 s
+8 s
G6 / G1
 17:09
17:47
 21:09
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Salinas

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 48.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 4.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 35.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 21:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:03 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 21:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 37 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Diego Ladera Querales
PER
+62 s
+27 s
G7 / G2
 17:11
18:34
 21:14
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Ladera Querales

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 34.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 4.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 35.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 21:14
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:02 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 21:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 41.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18 Oliver Batista
PAN
+61 s
+58 s
G7 / G3
 17:23
19:50
 21:26
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Batista

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 3.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 35.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Error: −2:27 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 21:26
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:02 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Total: 21:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 41.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Rodrigo Marcelo Leaño Alconz
BOL
+50 s
+100 s
G5 / G4
 18:05
19:26
 22:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Marcelo Leaño Alconz

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: -49.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 3.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 34.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 22:01
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:06 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Total: 22:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 30.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 19 Victor Aurelio Feliz Feliz
DOM
+88 s
+59 s
G10 / G4
 17:43
19:59
 22:26
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Aurelio Feliz Feliz

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 28.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 10 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.3 s
Gap behind: 9.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 3.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 33.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 22:26
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 22:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 68 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Alexis Gabriel Vasquez Fernandez
DOM
+74 s
+100 s
G9 / G5
 19:24
19:26
 24:05
Show details
Prediction details: Alexis Gabriel Vasquez Fernandez

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 19–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: -26.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 14.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 3.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 31.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 24:05
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:27 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Total: 24:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 53.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 14 Mijael Alejandro Rojas Huanaco
BOL
+97 s
+97 s
G11 / G4
 19:40
17:51
 24:32
Show details
Prediction details: Mijael Alejandro Rojas Huanaco

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 19–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +97 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 11 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.3 s
Gap behind: 17.7 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 3.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 33.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:49 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 24:32
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:15 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Total: 24:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 77.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Diego Lucero
PAN
+115 s
+98 s
G12 / G4
17:51
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Lucero

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +98 s
Fehler: 16.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.49 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 12 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 3.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 33.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 3:12 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 95 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.