Prediction comparison

Elite Women

30.11.2025 Vila Velha BRA

Race information and calculation basis

2025 BRA Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 71.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.7

Mean swim error47.1 s

Mean bike-speed error0.70 km/h

Correct bike groups3/6

No history1

Within the 80% range100.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Djenyfer Arnold BRA	+22 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:25 17:25	50:03	Show details Prediction details: Djenyfer Arnold Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 37.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.4 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.22 km/h Running and total Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 50:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (37.2 km/h) Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Total: 50:03
2 / 4	Gabrielle Lemes BRA	+54 s +86 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:57 18:35	51:56	Show details Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 10:54 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +86 s Fehler: -32.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.9 s Gap behind: 18.1 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h Running and total Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km) Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 51:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:05 (36.1 km/h) Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Total: 51:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 25.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Julia Visgueiro BRA	+32 s +27 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:30 17:58	51:56	Show details Prediction details: Julia Visgueiro Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 5.4 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 36.5 km/h Gap ahead: 10.4 s Gap behind: 7.5 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h Running and total Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km) Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 51:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:54 (36.5 km/h) Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Total: 51:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 6.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2	Giovanna Lacerda BRA	+40 s +27 s	G3 / G2	18:01 17:30	52:00	Show details Prediction details: Giovanna Lacerda Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 10:40 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 12.9 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.5 s Gap behind: 13.9 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.83 km/h Running and total Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 52:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:05 (36.1 km/h) Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Total: 52:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 14 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Sofia Gelati BRA	+72 s +86 s	G4 / G3	19:21 19:35	54:38	Show details Prediction details: Sofia Gelati Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +86 s Fehler: -14.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 47 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.1 s Gap behind: 67.2 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.18 km/h Running and total Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:35 (3:55 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 54:38 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:05 (35.2 km/h) Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km) Total: 54:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 46 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6	Rayane Cunha Alves BRA	+139 s +335 s	G5 / G4	40:21 21:45	1:19:09	Show details Prediction details: Rayane Cunha Alves Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +139 s Time: 12:19 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +335 s Fehler: -195.9 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 67.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 40:21 (8:04 / km) Historical basis: 8:16 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:45 (4:21 / km) Error: +18:36 / +3:43 / km Overall prediction: 1:19:09 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 12:19 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:29 (32.9 km/h) Run: 40:21 (8:04 / km) Total: 1:19:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 113.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Rafaella Leindecker Cardoso BRA	+0 s +652 s	G0 / G5	21:40		Show details Prediction details: Rafaella Leindecker Cardoso Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +652 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:40 (4:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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