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Junior Men

30.11.2025 Vila Velha BRA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 BRA Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 13.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 33.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.0
Mean swim error55.0 s
Mean bike-speed error2.55 km/h
Correct bike groups1/7
No history8
Within the 80% range26.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Orlando Duarte Garcia Jesus
BRA
+53 s
+101 s
G1 / G4
 17:32
17:16
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Orlando Duarte Garcia Jesus

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: -48.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.7 s
Gap behind: 29.7 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.46 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Total: 50:40
2 / 1 Athur Pereira Morer
BRA
+44 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:57
16:34
 52:05
Show details
Prediction details: Athur Pereira Morer

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 41.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 8.7 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: +2:23 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 52:05
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 52:05
3 / 3 Alejandro Juanuk
BRA
+27 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 19:11
16:28
 52:19
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Juanuk

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 9.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 26.8 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: +2:43 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 52:19
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:19
4 / 4 Guilherme Martinhon Quintão
BRA
+41 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 20:51
18:19
 53:59
Show details
Prediction details: Guilherme Martinhon Quintão

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 26.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: +2:32 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 53:59
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Total: 53:59
5 / 10 Igor Bertoli Meira
BRA
+83 s
+106 s
G2 / G4
 20:33
18:04
 55:07
Show details
Prediction details: Igor Bertoli Meira

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 11:14
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +106 s
Fehler: -23.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Error: +2:29 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 55:07
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:14 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:11 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Total: 55:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +48.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Henrique Domingues
BRA
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
16:48
Show details
Prediction details: Henrique Domingues

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Henzo Paulo Pereira
BRA
+0 s
+107 s
G0 / G4
17:40
Show details
Prediction details: Henzo Paulo Pereira

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Cauã Tarnowsky Petry
BRA
+34 s
+105 s
G1 / G4
17:40
Show details
Prediction details: Cauã Tarnowsky Petry

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: -71.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8 Davi De Amoedo Albano
BRA
+0 s
+167 s
G0 / G5
16:46
Show details
Prediction details: Davi De Amoedo Albano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +167 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Jose Kaique
BRA
+0 s
+24 s
G0 / G3
19:11
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Kaique

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Rodrigo De Carvalho Coelho
BRA
+0 s
+165 s
G1 / G5
17:29
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo De Carvalho Coelho

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +165 s
Fehler: -165.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 26.8 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:15 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12 Fabiano Dorea Silva Santana
BRA
+0 s
+157 s
G0 / G5
17:43
Show details
Prediction details: Fabiano Dorea Silva Santana

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +157 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 David Matos Correia
BRA
+0 s
+171 s
G0 / G5
17:42
Show details
Prediction details: David Matos Correia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +171 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Guilherme Henrique Pedra
BRA
+0 s
+142 s
G0 / G5
18:29
Show details
Prediction details: Guilherme Henrique Pedra

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +142 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Thomas Edson Cavalcante Goes Araujo
BRA
+0 s
+5 s
G0 / G4
19:27
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Edson Cavalcante Goes Araujo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.