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Elite Men

07.12.2025 Holambra BRA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 BRA Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.2
Mean swim error36.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.27 km/h
Correct bike groups5/13
No history0
Within the 80% range53.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Matheus Campos Correa
BRA
+28 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:36
35:52
 1:33:07
Show details
Prediction details: Matheus Campos Correa

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 27.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:36 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 1.77 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:07
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:29 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:54 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 34:36 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:33:07
2 / 5 Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella
BRA
+35 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:47
38:14
 1:33:18
Show details
Prediction details: Luigi Antonio Loddi Vanzella

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 33.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:47 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 2.29 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:14 (3:49 / km)
Error: −3:27 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:18
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:54 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 34:47 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:33:18
3 / 2 Julio Monteiro Martins
BRA
+45 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 34:45
35:53
 1:33:29
Show details
Prediction details: Julio Monteiro Martins

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 36.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:45 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 1.54 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:29
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:46 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:56 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 34:45 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:33:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
4 / 6 Felipe Bianchi
BRA
+19 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 35:40
35:53
 1:34:11
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe Bianchi

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 19:20
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.7 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:40 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:20 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:54 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 35:40 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:34:11
5 / 1 João Teixeira Alvares
BRA
+43 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 35:37
35:34
 1:34:21
Show details
Prediction details: João Teixeira Alvares

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 34.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:56 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:34:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:42
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Lucas Galdino
BRA
+69 s
+9 s
G3 / G1
 35:31
36:37
 1:34:54
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Galdino

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 20:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 59.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 20.0 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 2.00 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:37 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:54
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:14 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:34:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 11 Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva
BRA
+37 s
+28 s
G1 / G2
 36:50
41:20
 1:35:21
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Hugo Lopes Pereira Da Silva

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 19:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 2.30 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:20 (4:08 / km)
Error: −4:30 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:21
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:38 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:54 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:35:21
8 / 7 Yago Alves
BRA
+35 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		39:45
40:18
 1:38:16
Show details
Prediction details: Yago Alves

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 22.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:45 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:18 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:54 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 39:45 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:38:16
9 / 10 Pedro Felipe Souza Fernandes Silva
BRA
+28 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		40:55
43:19
 1:39:26
Show details
Prediction details: Pedro Felipe Souza Fernandes Silva

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 19:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:55 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:19 (4:20 / km)
Error: −2:24 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:29 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:54 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 40:55 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:39:26
10 / 9 Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki
BRA
+66 s
+7 s
G3 / G1
 42:05
42:31
 1:41:28
Show details
Prediction details: Matheus Oliveira Martinhaki

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 20:07
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 58.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:05 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:31 (4:15 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:07 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:14 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 42:05 (4:12 / km)
Total: 1:41:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 16.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +49.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 12 Thiago Gomide Moreira
BRA
+48 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		45:39
41:43
 1:44:23
Show details
Prediction details: Thiago Gomide Moreira

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 19:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 17.8 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:39 (4:34 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:43 (4:10 / km)
Error: +3:56 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:56 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 45:39 (4:34 / km)
Total: 1:44:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
12 / 13 Alexandre Cesar Borges Da Nobrega
BRA
+171 s
+28 s
G5 / G2
 43:02
44:10
 1:53:31
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandre Cesar Borges Da Nobrega

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +171 s
Time: 21:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 142.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.40 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 82.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:02 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:10 (4:25 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:31
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 21:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:38 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 43:02 (4:18 / km)
Total: 1:53:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:42
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 130.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 8 Gabriel Lecheta
BRA
+89 s
+100 s
G4 / G2
 54:09
38:11
 1:55:55
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Lecheta

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 20:30
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: -11.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.0 s
Gap behind: 82.2 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:09 (5:25 / km)
Historical basis: 5:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:11 (3:49 / km)
Error: +15:58 / +1:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:55:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:30 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 54:09 (5:25 / km)
Total: 1:55:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:42
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 48.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.