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Elite Women

07.12.2025 Holambra BRA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 BRA Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 45/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error66.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.05 km/h
Correct bike groups2/2
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Luma Guillen
BRA
+89 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		41:42
45:20
 1:49:59
Show details
Prediction details: Luma Guillen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 23:04
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 89.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:42 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:20 (4:32 / km)
Error: −3:38 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:04 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:48 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 41:42 (4:10 / km)
Total: 1:49:59
2 / 2 Sofia Gelati
BRA
+121 s
+78 s
G2 / G2
correct 		44:03
47:00
 1:52:57
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Gelati

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +121 s
Time: 23:36
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 43.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:03 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 47:00 (4:42 / km)
Error: −2:57 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:52:57
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:36 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:53 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 44:03 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:52:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 23:08
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 28.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +92.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.