Prediction comparison

Elite Women

13.09.2025 Aarhus DEN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 DEN Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 60.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.4

Mean swim error17.4 s

Mean bike-speed error5.34 km/h

Correct bike groups2/5

No history0

Within the 80% range60.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Lærke Ruby DEN	+22 s +12 s	G1 / G2	18:57 18:22	50:31	Show details Prediction details: Lærke Ruby Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 10.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.6 s Gap behind: 39.0 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.41 km/h Running and total Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 50:31 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:12 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Total: 50:31
2 / 1	Clara Carlquist DEN	+17 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:17 18:31	50:51	Show details Prediction details: Clara Carlquist Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 5.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 4.6 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h Running and total Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 50:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:12 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Total: 50:51
3 / 4	Mikkeline Fugleberg DEN	+64 s +61 s	G2 / G3	19:25 19:55	52:49	Show details Prediction details: Mikkeline Fugleberg Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: 2.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 6.7 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 30.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.21 km/h Running and total Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 Ergebnis Lauf: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 52:49 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h) Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Total: 52:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 42.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Celina Kaarup DEN	+70 s +62 s	G3 / G4	21:05 20:44	55:00	Show details Prediction details: Celina Kaarup Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 10:10 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: 8.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.08 km/h Running and total Run: 21:05 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:09 / km) Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 55:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:45 (36.6 km/h) Run: 21:05 (4:13 / km) Total: 55:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 48.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Anna Harbo DEN	+61 s +0 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:28		Show details Prediction details: Anna Harbo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 61.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 37.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 39.0 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.51 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 1.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total