Prediction comparison

Junior Men

13.09.2025 Aarhus DEN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 DEN Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 42/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 44.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.6

Mean swim error39.3 s

Mean bike-speed error5.65 km/h

Correct bike groups2/8

No history1

Within the 80% range11.1 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Tobias Gårde Skou DEN	+102 s +18 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:21 16:20	46:23	Show details Prediction details: Tobias Gårde Skou Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +102 s Time: 11:19 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 83.9 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.21 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.8 s Gap behind: 48.1 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.62 km/h Running and total Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 46:23 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:19 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Total: 46:23
2 / 4	August Juul-Andersen DEN	+93 s +13 s	G1 / G2	16:54 18:07	47:56	Show details Prediction details: August Juul-Andersen Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 11:10 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 80.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 33.5 s Gap behind: 8.8 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.37 km/h Running and total Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 47:56 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km) Total: 47:56
3 / 2	Thomas Green Nielsen DEN	+48 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:47 17:50	48:49	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Green Nielsen Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 10:25 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 48.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 11.4 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.89 km/h Running and total Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 48:49 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Total: 48:49
4 / 3	William Friis Knudsen DEN	+60 s +66 s	G1 / G2	18:30 17:05	49:32	Show details Prediction details: William Friis Knudsen Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -6.4 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.4 s Gap behind: 33.5 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.50 km/h Running and total Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:25 / km) Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 49:32 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km) Total: 49:32
5 / 5	August Mumm DEN	+44 s +27 s	G1 / G3	19:45 20:58	50:47	Show details Prediction details: August Mumm Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 10:21 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 17.2 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.7 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.00 km/h Running and total Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:58 (4:12 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 50:47 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Total: 50:47
6 / 6	Vilfred Beedholm-Ebsen DEN	+22 s +27 s	G1 / G4	20:03 19:40	51:05	Show details Prediction details: Vilfred Beedholm-Ebsen Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.5 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.27 km/h Running and total Run: 20:03 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 51:05 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 20:03 (4:01 / km) Total: 51:05
7 / 9	Jonas Hergaard DEN	+33 s +21 s	G1 / G6	21:20 22:12	52:22	Show details Prediction details: Jonas Hergaard Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 10:10 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 11.5 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 41.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.5 s Gap behind: 11.7 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 32.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.68 km/h Running and total Run: 21:20 (4:16 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.50 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:12 (4:26 / km) Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 52:22 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (41.1 km/h) Run: 21:20 (4:16 / km) Total: 52:22
0 / 7	Kasper Koefoed DEN	+150 s +88 s	G2 / G5	21:33		Show details Prediction details: Kasper Koefoed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +150 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 62.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.49 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 48.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.85 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:33 (4:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:07 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:23 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m About 44.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +105.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Emil Skipper DEN	+0 s +106 s	G0 / G7	19:32		Show details Prediction details: Emil Skipper Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 32.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:32 (3:54 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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