Prediction comparison

PTS2 Men

13.09.2025 Águilas ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2025 ESP Paratriathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 37/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.0

Mean swim error154.3 s

Mean bike-speed error5.42 km/h

Correct bike groups0/3

No history0

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Lionel Morales ESP	+61 s +0 s	G2 / G1	19:54 22:41	55:47	Show details Prediction details: Lionel Morales Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 13:11 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 61.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 61.0 s Gap behind: 48.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.15 km/h Running and total Run: 19:54 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 Ergebnis Lauf: 22:41 (4:44 / km) Error: −2:47 / −0:35 / km Overall prediction: 55:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:11 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:52 (35.1 km/h) Run: 19:54 (4:09 / km) Total: 55:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:14 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m About 57.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Javier Vergara Rubio ESP	+109 s +26 s	G3 / G2	27:18 26:12	1:10:56	Show details Prediction details: Javier Vergara Rubio Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +109 s Time: 13:59 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 83.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.3 km/h Gap ahead: 48.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h Running and total Run: 27:18 (5:41 / km) Historical basis: 5:41 / km Best comparable pace: 5:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 26:12 (5:28 / km) Error: +1:06 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:10:56 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 13:59 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:49 (29.3 km/h) Run: 27:18 (5:41 / km) Total: 1:10:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:14 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m About 105.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Oskar Garro Antxia ESP	+0 s +319 s	G1 / G3	32:34		Show details Prediction details: Oskar Garro Antxia Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:10 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +319 s Fehler: -319.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 61.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.17 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 32:34 (6:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:10 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total