Prediction comparison

PTS4 Men

13.09.2025 Águilas ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2025 ESP Paratriathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 26/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 25.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.1

Mean swim error142.3 s

Mean bike-speed error6.90 km/h

Correct bike groups0/7

No history1

Within the 80% range25.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Nil Riudavets Victory ESP	+93 s +69 s	G2 / G1	15:51 15:46	56:51	Show details Prediction details: Nil Riudavets Victory Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 13:01 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: 24.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 47.0 s Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -11.49 km/h Running and total Run: 15:51 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:17 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 56:51 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:01 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:17 (33.5 km/h) Run: 15:51 (3:18 / km) Total: 56:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:32 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m About 89.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 4	Marc Rodriguez Palet ESP	+107 s +144 s	G2 / G4	20:01 23:28	1:01:01	Show details Prediction details: Marc Rodriguez Palet Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +107 s Time: 13:15 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +144 s Fehler: -37.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.01 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 153.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.35 km/h Running and total Run: 20:01 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:28 (4:53 / km) Error: −3:27 / −0:43 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:01 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:15 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:17 (33.5 km/h) Run: 20:01 (4:10 / km) Total: 1:01:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:32 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m About 103.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Bartomeu Caldentey Santandreu ESP	+46 s +203 s	G2 / G3	20:29 20:30	1:01:29	Show details Prediction details: Bartomeu Caldentey Santandreu Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 12:14 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +203 s Fehler: -157.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.05 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 46.0 s Gap behind: 47.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.77 km/h Running and total Run: 20:29 (4:16 / km) Historical basis: 4:17 / km Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 (4:16 / km) Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:29 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:14 (1:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:17 (33.5 km/h) Run: 20:29 (4:16 / km) Total: 1:01:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:32 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m About 42.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Samuel Rodriguez Masian ESP	+0 s +203 s	G1 / G2	19:17		Show details Prediction details: Samuel Rodriguez Masian Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:28 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +203 s Fehler: -203.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.08 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:28 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:04 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5	Jorge Miguez ESP	+260 s +591 s	G2 / G5	25:41		Show details Prediction details: Jorge Miguez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +260 s Time: 15:48 Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +591 s Fehler: -331.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 153.0 s Gap behind: 263.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:41 (5:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:48 (2:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:17 (33.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:32 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m About 256.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Oscar Macia Planelles ESP	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G6	23:03		Show details Prediction details: Oscar Macia Planelles Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:28 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 46.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 25.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 15.66 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:03 (4:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:28 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:04 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7	Valeriano Moreno Garcia ESP	+523 s +767 s	G2 / G7	42:21		Show details Prediction details: Valeriano Moreno Garcia Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +523 s Time: 20:11 Pace: 2:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +767 s Fehler: -244.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 263.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 26.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.88 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 42:21 (8:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:11 (2:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:17 (33.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:32 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m About 519.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Julio Joel Febles Rodriguez ESP	+0 s +923 s	G0 / G8	33:50		Show details Prediction details: Julio Joel Febles Rodriguez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:28 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +923 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 20.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:50 (7:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 11:28 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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