Prediction comparison

PTVI Men

13.09.2025 Águilas ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2025 ESP Paratriathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 34/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 28.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.6

Mean swim error199.4 s

Mean bike-speed error4.50 km/h

Correct bike groups2/6

No history0

Within the 80% range28.6 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Héctor Catalá Laparra B2 ESP	+43 s +177 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:37 17:11	44:26	Show details Prediction details: Héctor Catalá Laparra B2 Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 11:51 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +177 s Fehler: -134.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 45.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 43.0 s Gap behind: 8.4 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 50.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.74 km/h Running and total Run: 16:37 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:35 / km) Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:51 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:06 (45.3 km/h) Run: 16:37 (3:28 / km) Total: 44:26
2 / 3	Sergio Molina Martin B3 ESP	+51 s +0 s	G2 / G2 correct	21:50 18:53	51:58	Show details Prediction details: Sergio Molina Martin B3 Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 11:59 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 51.4 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 41.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.4 s Gap behind: 5.6 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h Running and total Run: 21:50 (4:33 / km) Historical basis: 4:35 / km Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:56 / km) Error: +2:57 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: 51:58 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:59 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:16 (41.8 km/h) Run: 21:50 (4:33 / km) Total: 51:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:55 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 4.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +46.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5	Kevin Mendez Martinez B3 ESP	+57 s +230 s	G3 / G4	22:54 19:45	54:07	Show details Prediction details: Kevin Mendez Martinez B3 Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 12:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +230 s Fehler: -173.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.6 s Gap behind: 381.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.19 km/h Running and total Run: 22:54 (4:46 / km) Historical basis: 4:46 / km Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (4:07 / km) Error: +3:09 / +0:39 / km Overall prediction: 54:07 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:05 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: 22:54 (4:46 / km) Total: 54:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:55 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 10.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +46.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Fernando Anitua García B3 ESP	+438 s +460 s	G4 / G5	37:48 22:41	1:24:36	Show details Prediction details: Fernando Anitua García B3 Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +438 s Time: 18:26 Pace: 2:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +460 s Fehler: -22.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 381.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -8.74 km/h Running and total Run: 37:48 (7:52 / km) Historical basis: 8:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:41 (4:44 / km) Error: +15:07 / +3:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:24:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:26 (2:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:30 (31.0 km/h) Run: 37:48 (7:52 / km) Total: 1:24:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:55 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 391.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +46.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Diego Molina Martin B3 ESP	+0 s	Bike DNF			Show details Prediction details: Diego Molina Martin B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Abel Torreblanca Lopez B3 ESP	+0 s +181 s	G1 / G3	19:15		Show details Prediction details: Abel Torreblanca Lopez B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +181 s Fehler: -181.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 45.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:06 (45.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7	Manuel Saborit Vidal B2 ESP	+0 s +635 s	G1 / G6	22:37		Show details Prediction details: Manuel Saborit Vidal B2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +635 s Fehler: -635.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 45.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 43.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.31 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:37 (4:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:06 (45.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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