Prediction comparison
PTVI Women
13.09.2025
Águilas
ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2025 ESP Paratriathlon National Championships
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
37/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.7
Mean swim error250.3 s
Mean bike-speed error9.07 km/h
Correct bike groups0/3
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 3 |
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Susana Rodriguez B1
ESP
|
+77 s
+0 s
|
G2 / G3
|
19:40
19:34
|
53:52 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 13:37
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 77.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Gap ahead:
77.0 s
Gap behind:
235.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 24.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.07 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:40 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (4:05 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 53:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
13:37
(1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:55
(37.2 km/h)
Run:
19:40
(4:06 / km)
Total:
53:52
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:24
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 73.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 2 / 1 |
Sonia Ramos B2
ESP
|
+312 s
+384 s
|
G3 / G1
|
23:47
23:12
|
59:15 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +312 s
Time: 17:32
Pace: 2:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +384 s
Fehler: -72.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
235.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.32 km/h
Running and totalRun: 23:47 (4:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:12 (4:50 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 59:15
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
17:32
(2:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:16
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
23:47
(4:57 / km)
Total:
59:15
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:24
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 308.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 2 |
Eva Maria Cambero Roldan B2
ESP
|
+0 s
+602 s
|
G1 / G2
|
26:34
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:20
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +602 s
Fehler: -602.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
77.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.82 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:34 (5:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
12:20
(1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:16
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
|