Prediction comparison

Elite Men

25.10.2025 Alanya TUR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Alanya

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 65/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 90.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error14.7

Mean swim error11.3 s

Mean bike-speed error2.71 km/h

Correct bike groups31/63

No history0

Within the 80% range50.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Louis Vitiello FRA	+17 s +8 s	G1 / G1 correct	13:15 13:48	39:40	Show details Prediction details: Louis Vitiello Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 8.7 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 47.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.86 km/h Running and total Run: 13:15 (2:54 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:48 (3:01 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 39:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 13:15 (2:54 / km) Total: 39:40
2 / 16	Justus Töpper GER	+23 s +10 s	G2 / G2 correct	13:37 13:57	40:04	Show details Prediction details: Justus Töpper Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–27 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 16 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 12.8 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 13:37 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:57 (3:03 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 40:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 13:37 (2:58 / km) Total: 40:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 3.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 8	Sergiy Polikarpenko ITA	+17 s +15 s	G1 / G2	13:51 13:42	40:16	Show details Prediction details: Sergiy Polikarpenko Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–23 Top-10 probability: 60 % Result: 8 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 2.2 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.25 km/h Running and total Run: 13:51 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:42 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 40:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 13:51 (3:01 / km) Total: 40:16
4 / 30	Quentin Criado FRA	+28 s +25 s	G2 / G2 correct	13:53 14:14	40:20	Show details Prediction details: Quentin Criado Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 8–20 Top-10 probability: 34 % Result: 30 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 3.4 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.99 km/h Running and total Run: 13:53 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (3:06 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 40:20 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 13:53 (3:02 / km) Total: 40:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 42	James Edgar IRL	+22 s +7 s	G2 / G2 correct	13:54 14:45	40:21	Show details Prediction details: James Edgar Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–27 Top-10 probability: 45 % Result: 42 Deviation: -37 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 15.1 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h Running and total Run: 13:54 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (3:13 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 40:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 13:54 (3:02 / km) Total: 40:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 2.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 15	Enzo Bourdon FRA	+16 s +13 s	G1 / G2	13:56 13:47	40:21	Show details Prediction details: Enzo Bourdon Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–15 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 15 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 3.0 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h Running and total Run: 13:56 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:47 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 40:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 13:56 (3:03 / km) Total: 40:21
7 / 3	Pablo Isotton FRA	+14 s +2 s	G1 / G1 correct	13:58 14:00	40:23	Show details Prediction details: Pablo Isotton Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 5–23 Top-10 probability: 51 % Result: 3 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 12.0 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 46.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.83 km/h Running and total Run: 13:58 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:00 (3:03 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 40:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 13:58 (3:03 / km) Total: 40:23
8 / 13	Adam Fouchal FRA	+25 s +26 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:06 13:52	40:33	Show details Prediction details: Adam Fouchal Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–22 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 13 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -0.7 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h Running and total Run: 14:06 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:52 (3:02 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 40:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:06 (3:05 / km) Total: 40:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 5.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11	Mikhail Antipov RUS	+33 s +9 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:06 13:42	40:33	Show details Prediction details: Mikhail Antipov Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 9–49 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 11 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 23.6 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h Running and total Run: 14:06 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 85 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:42 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 40:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:06 (3:05 / km) Total: 40:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 13.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 40	Balte Thijs BEL	+30 s +26 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:08 14:34	40:35	Show details Prediction details: Balte Thijs Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–28 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 40 Deviation: -30 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 3.5 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h Running and total Run: 14:08 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 40:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:08 (3:05 / km) Total: 40:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 10.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 2	Andreas Nikolajsen DEN	+14 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:11 13:40	40:36	Show details Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 6–23 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 2 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 13.4 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 46.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.69 km/h Running and total Run: 14:11 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:40 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 40:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:11 (3:06 / km) Total: 40:36
12 / 21	Kiril Polikarpenko ITA	+34 s +18 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:15 13:57	40:42	Show details Prediction details: Kiril Polikarpenko Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 12–44 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 21 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 15.5 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 14:15 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:57 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 40:42 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:15 (3:07 / km) Total: 40:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 14.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 25	Simeone Romano ITA	+16 s +14 s	G1 / G2	14:18 14:03	40:43	Show details Prediction details: Simeone Romano Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 8–30 Top-10 probability: 23 % Result: 25 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 1.5 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h Running and total Run: 14:18 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:03 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 40:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:18 (3:07 / km) Total: 40:43
14 / 55	Jan Semmler GER	+19 s +13 s	G1 / G2	14:29 16:38	40:54	Show details Prediction details: Jan Semmler Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 12–31 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 55 Deviation: -41 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 6.4 s H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h Running and total Run: 14:29 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:38 / km) Error: −2:09 / −0:28 / km Overall prediction: 40:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:29 (3:10 / km) Total: 40:54
15 / 14	Jesse Cuijpers NED	+14 s +8 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:30 14:53	40:55	Show details Prediction details: Jesse Cuijpers Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 14–32 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 14 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 5.9 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 69 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.02 km/h Running and total Run: 14:30 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (3:15 / km) Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 40:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:30 (3:10 / km) Total: 40:55
16 / 10	Daniel Van Aardt GBR	+26 s +11 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:29 13:37	40:56	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Van Aardt Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 15–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 15.2 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h Running and total Run: 14:29 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:37 (2:58 / km) Error: +0:52 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 40:56 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:29 (3:10 / km) Total: 40:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 6.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 35	Roman Leonov AIN	+20 s +16 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:32 14:22	40:59	Show details Prediction details: Roman Leonov Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 6–44 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 35 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 4.4 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 14:32 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 40:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:32 (3:10 / km) Total: 40:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 29	Jan Scheffold GER	+30 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:34 14:20	41:01	Show details Prediction details: Jan Scheffold Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 20–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 9.6 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.09 km/h Running and total Run: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:20 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Total: 41:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 10.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 26	Hugo Borel FRA	+34 s +11 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:34 14:11	41:01	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Borel Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 24–42 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 22.5 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h Running and total Run: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:11 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 41:01 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Total: 41:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 14.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20	Pierre Moraz SUI	+25 s +24 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:38 13:58	41:05	Show details Prediction details: Pierre Moraz Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 11–44 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 20 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 0.9 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h Running and total Run: 14:38 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:58 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:40 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 41:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:38 (3:12 / km) Total: 41:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 5.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 39	Anton Serieys FRA	+12 s +12 s	G1 / G2	14:47 14:34	41:12	Show details Prediction details: Anton Serieys Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 18–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: -0.5 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h Running and total Run: 14:47 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:12 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:47 (3:14 / km) Total: 41:12
22 / 41	Niels Van Lanen NED	+30 s +6 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:46 14:45	41:13	Show details Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 13–50 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 41 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 23.9 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h Running and total Run: 14:46 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (3:13 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 41:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:46 (3:13 / km) Total: 41:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 10.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 6	Pao Millo FRA	+14 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:48 14:32	41:13	Show details Prediction details: Pao Millo Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 7–40 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 6 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 46.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.79 km/h Running and total Run: 14:48 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:32 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 41:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:48 (3:14 / km) Total: 41:13
24 / 12	Julian Piller AUT	+14 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:48 14:48	41:13	Show details Prediction details: Julian Piller Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 16–35 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 12 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 9.9 s H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 81 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 46.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.83 km/h Running and total Run: 14:48 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:48 (3:14 / km) Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 41:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:48 (3:14 / km) Total: 41:13
25 / 7	Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg DEN	+14 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:50 14:37	41:15	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 21–35 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: 18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 11.4 s H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 47.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.86 km/h Running and total Run: 14:50 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 14:50 (3:14 / km) Total: 41:15
26 / 28	Lukas Meckel GER	+24 s +14 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:49 14:12	41:16	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Meckel Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 15–46 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 28 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 10.3 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h Running and total Run: 14:49 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:12 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:37 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 41:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:49 (3:14 / km) Total: 41:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 4.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 17	Fiorenzo Angelini ITA	+29 s +9 s	G2 / G1	14:49 15:00	41:16	Show details Prediction details: Fiorenzo Angelini Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 20–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 20.3 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 47.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.58 km/h Running and total Run: 14:49 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 41:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:49 (3:14 / km) Total: 41:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 9.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 27	Roman Mineev AIN	+37 s +21 s	G3 / G3 correct	13:30 14:03	41:20	Show details Prediction details: Roman Mineev Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 7–39 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 27 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 15.9 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 86 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.77 km/h Running and total Run: 13:30 (2:57 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:03 (3:04 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 41:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 13:30 (2:57 / km) Total: 41:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 17.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 18	Albert García Serra ESP	+28 s +22 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:56 13:55	41:23	Show details Prediction details: Albert García Serra Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 6–54 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 18 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 5.6 s H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.99 km/h Running and total Run: 14:56 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:55 (3:02 / km) Error: +1:01 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 41:23 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 14:56 (3:16 / km) Total: 41:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 8.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 5	Ben Fäh SUI	+8 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:00 14:22	41:25	Show details Prediction details: Ben Fäh Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 13–44 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 5 Deviation: 25 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +8 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 2.3 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.96 km/h Running and total Run: 15:00 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 41:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:00 (3:17 / km) Total: 41:25
31 / 44	Léo Fernandez FRA	+16 s +11 s	G1 / G2	15:00 15:04	41:25	Show details Prediction details: Léo Fernandez Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 14–43 Top-10 probability: 8 % Result: 44 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 5.3 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 80 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h Running and total Run: 15:00 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 41:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:00 (3:17 / km) Total: 41:25
32 / 62	Batuhan Sağin TUR	+31 s +39 s	G2 / G5	15:02 16:41	41:29	Show details Prediction details: Batuhan Sağin Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 31–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 62 Deviation: -30 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -7.6 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.96 km/h Running and total Run: 15:02 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.56 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:39 / km) Error: −1:39 / −0:22 / km Overall prediction: 41:29 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:02 (3:17 / km) Total: 41:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 12 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 38	Delian Stateff ITA	+16 s +11 s	G1 / G2	15:04 14:28	41:29	Show details Prediction details: Delian Stateff Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 23–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 4.9 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.07 km/h Running and total Run: 15:04 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:28 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 41:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:04 (3:17 / km) Total: 41:29
34 / 46	Quentin Pennone SUI	+32 s +25 s	G2 / G3	15:03 15:02	41:30	Show details Prediction details: Quentin Pennone Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 25–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 46 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 6.5 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 45.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h Running and total Run: 15:03 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:17 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 41:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:03 (3:17 / km) Total: 41:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 12.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 49	Tikhon Butov AIN	+14 s +2 s	G1 / G2	15:05 15:21	41:30	Show details Prediction details: Tikhon Butov Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 25–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 49 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 12.3 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 94 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h Running and total Run: 15:05 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 85 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:16 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 41:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:05 (3:18 / km) Total: 41:30
36 / 33	Kamil Kulik POL	+38 s +16 s	G3 / G2	13:56 14:23	41:46	Show details Prediction details: Kamil Kulik Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 8–43 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 33 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 22.2 s H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.89 km/h Running and total Run: 13:56 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:23 (3:08 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 41:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 13:56 (3:03 / km) Total: 41:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 18.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 9	Pau Noguera Salmeron ESP	+37 s +29 s	G3 / G2	14:01 13:42	41:51	Show details Prediction details: Pau Noguera Salmeron Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 9–41 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 9 Deviation: 28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 7.5 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.17 km/h Running and total Run: 14:01 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:42 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 41:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 14:01 (3:04 / km) Total: 41:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 17.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 24	Lawrence Martindale GBR	+6 s +7 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:26 15:13	41:51	Show details Prediction details: Lawrence Martindale Placement Prediction: 38 80% range: 31–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: -1.5 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 1 (10 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.02 km/h Running and total Run: 15:26 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:19 / km) Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 41:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:26 (3:22 / km) Total: 41:51
39 / 22	Dmitrii Karpeev AIN	+45 s +22 s	G3 / G2	14:05 13:58	41:55	Show details Prediction details: Dmitrii Karpeev Placement Prediction: 39 80% range: 18–55 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 22 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 23.2 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 16.9 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.86 km/h Running and total Run: 14:05 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:58 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:07 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 41:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 14:05 (3:05 / km) Total: 41:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 25.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 57	Hugo Philippe BEL	+45 s +38 s	G3 / G4	14:05 15:38	41:55	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Philippe Placement Prediction: 40 80% range: 14–57 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 57 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 6.8 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 43.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.43 km/h Running and total Run: 14:05 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:25 / km) Error: −1:33 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 41:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 14:05 (3:05 / km) Total: 41:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 25.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 45	Jan Gaberc AUT	+18 s +6 s	G1 / G2	15:30 15:01	41:55	Show details Prediction details: Jan Gaberc Placement Prediction: 41 80% range: 27–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 45 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 11.9 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 66 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.07 km/h Running and total Run: 15:30 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:01 (3:17 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 41:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 15:30 (3:23 / km) Total: 41:55
42 / 19	Linus Lehnen GER	+28 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:29 13:57	41:56	Show details Prediction details: Linus Lehnen Placement Prediction: 42 80% range: 22–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: 23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 8.4 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 34 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h Running and total Run: 15:29 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:57 (3:03 / km) Error: +1:32 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 41:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:29 (3:23 / km) Total: 41:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 53	Daniil Babanschi MDA	+21 s +16 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:34 15:44	42:01	Show details Prediction details: Daniil Babanschi Placement Prediction: 43 80% range: 30–52 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 53 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 5.4 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 42:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:34 (3:24 / km) Total: 42:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 56	Emir Aracı TUR	+33 s +34 s	G2 / G4	15:49 15:30	42:16	Show details Prediction details: Emir Aracı Placement Prediction: 44 80% range: 42–57 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 56 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -1.1 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h Running and total Run: 15:49 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:23 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 42:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 15:49 (3:27 / km) Total: 42:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 13.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 51	Lukas Bentsen DEN	+17 s +5 s	G1 / G2	16:00 15:30	42:25	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Bentsen Placement Prediction: 45 80% range: 42–50 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 51 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 12.3 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 70 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h Running and total Run: 16:00 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:23 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 16:00 (3:30 / km) Total: 42:25
46 / 59	Tin Rebic CRO	+23 s +23 s	G2 / G4	16:18 16:22	42:45	Show details Prediction details: Tin Rebic Placement Prediction: 46 80% range: 46–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 59 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: -0.5 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h Running and total Run: 16:18 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:34 / km) Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 42:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 16:18 (3:34 / km) Total: 42:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 3.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 36	Simeon Bobekov BUL	+42 s +28 s	G3 / G2	14:56 14:22	42:46	Show details Prediction details: Simeon Bobekov Placement Prediction: 47 80% range: 33–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.92 km/h Running and total Run: 14:56 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 42:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 14:56 (3:16 / km) Total: 42:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 22.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 52	Boris Andreev BUL	+25 s +20 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:20 15:37	42:47	Show details Prediction details: Boris Andreev Placement Prediction: 48 80% range: 42–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 52 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 4.8 s H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h Running and total Run: 16:20 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:25 / km) Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 42:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 16:20 (3:34 / km) Total: 42:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 5.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 50	Filip Vilenica CRO	+9 s +2 s	G1 / G2	16:25 15:18	42:50	Show details Prediction details: Filip Vilenica Placement Prediction: 49 80% range: 45–53 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 50 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 6.6 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 81 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 44.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h Running and total Run: 16:25 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:20 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 42:50 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 16:25 (3:35 / km) Total: 42:50
50 / 48	Taha Eren Coşgun TUR	+14 s +17 s	G1 / G2	16:27 15:09	42:52	Show details Prediction details: Taha Eren Coşgun Placement Prediction: 50 80% range: 47–54 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 48 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: -2.9 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 80 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h Running and total Run: 16:27 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:18 / km) Error: +1:18 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 42:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 16:27 (3:36 / km) Total: 42:52
51 / 32	David Vollmann AUT	+35 s +28 s	G3 / G2	15:22 14:11	43:12	Show details Prediction details: David Vollmann Placement Prediction: 51 80% range: 30–58 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 32 Deviation: 19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 6.5 s H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.92 km/h Running and total Run: 15:22 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:11 (3:06 / km) Error: +1:11 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 43:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 15:22 (3:21 / km) Total: 43:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 15.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 47	Burak Cağdaş TUR	+30 s +19 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:53 15:06	43:20	Show details Prediction details: Burak Cağdaş Placement Prediction: 52 80% range: 53–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 47 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 10.5 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h Running and total Run: 16:53 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:18 / km) Error: +1:47 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 43:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: 16:53 (3:41 / km) Total: 43:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 10.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 37	Jack Douglas BEL	+16 s +22 s	G1 / G2	17:00 14:34	43:25	Show details Prediction details: Jack Douglas Placement Prediction: 53 80% range: 53–58 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (22 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 43.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.59 km/h Running and total Run: 17:00 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.35 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (3:11 / km) Error: +2:26 / +0:32 / km Overall prediction: 43:25 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:06 (43.1 km/h) Run: 17:00 (3:43 / km) Total: 43:25
54 / 43	Jakob Meier AUT	+35 s +26 s	G3 / G2	15:50 14:54	43:40	Show details Prediction details: Jakob Meier Placement Prediction: 54 80% range: 44–59 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 43 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 8.6 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.11 km/h Running and total Run: 15:50 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (3:15 / km) Error: +0:56 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 43:40 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 15:50 (3:28 / km) Total: 43:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 15.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 23	Rick Van der Knaap NED	+62 s +27 s	G4 / G2	14:35 14:01	43:45	Show details Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap Placement Prediction: 55 80% range: 38–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 32 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 35.1 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Gap ahead: 16.9 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.65 km/h Running and total Run: 14:35 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:01 (3:04 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 43:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (40.1 km/h) Run: 14:35 (3:11 / km) Total: 43:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 42.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 31	Siwar Kool NED	+65 s +26 s	G4 / G2	14:35 14:16	43:45	Show details Prediction details: Siwar Kool Placement Prediction: 56 80% range: 47–60 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 25 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 39.3 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 7.6 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.50 km/h Running and total Run: 14:35 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:16 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 43:45 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (40.1 km/h) Run: 14:35 (3:11 / km) Total: 43:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 45.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 58	Tymon Horsten POL	+39 s +35 s	G3 / G4	16:26 16:02	44:16	Show details Prediction details: Tymon Horsten Placement Prediction: 57 80% range: 48–62 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 58 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 3.5 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h Running and total Run: 16:26 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:30 / km) Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (41.5 km/h) Run: 16:26 (3:35 / km) Total: 44:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 19.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 34	Ákos Kárpáti HUN	+65 s +23 s	G4 / G2	15:18 14:17	44:28	Show details Prediction details: Ákos Kárpáti Placement Prediction: 58 80% range: 59–61 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: 24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 41.5 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 50 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (43 people) Speed: 45.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.29 km/h Running and total Run: 15:18 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:17 (3:07 / km) Error: +1:01 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 44:28 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (40.1 km/h) Run: 15:18 (3:20 / km) Total: 44:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 45.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 / 60	Thomas Beauvir SUI	+64 s +28 s	G4 / G4 correct	16:36 17:13	45:46	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Beauvir Placement Prediction: 59 80% range: 62–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 60 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 36.3 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 82 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.35 km/h Running and total Run: 16:36 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 82 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:46 / km) Error: −0:37 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 45:46 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (40.1 km/h) Run: 16:36 (3:37 / km) Total: 45:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 44.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 / 61	Florian Bärenthaler AUT	+73 s +51 s	G5 / G5 correct	15:43 16:10	45:50	Show details Prediction details: Florian Bärenthaler Placement Prediction: 60 80% range: 60–63 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 61 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: 21.9 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.9 km/h Gap ahead: 7.6 s Gap behind: 159.5 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h Running and total Run: 15:43 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 33 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:10 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 45:50 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (38.9 km/h) Run: 15:43 (3:26 / km) Total: 45:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 53.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Sam Hart GBR	+18 s	Bike DNF	13:55 13:03		Show details Prediction details: Sam Hart Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 64–64 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 13:55 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:03 (2:51 / km) Error: +0:52 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 13:55 (3:02 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 54	Antoni Juan Pol ESP	+21 s +36 s	G2 / G4	14:49		Show details Prediction details: Antoni Juan Pol Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 54 Deviation: -54 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: -14.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (25 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 43.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 14:49 (3:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 25:53 (43.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 1.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 63	Yehor Fokov UKR	+65 s +43 s	G4 / G6	16:11		Show details Prediction details: Yehor Fokov Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 63 Deviation: -63 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 21.7 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.1 km/h Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 34.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.64 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (40.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 45.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 64	Wais Khairandesh AFG	+232 s +227 s	G6 / G7	16:15		Show details Prediction details: Wais Khairandesh Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 64 Deviation: -64 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +232 s Time: 12:47 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +227 s Fehler: 5.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 159.5 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.44 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 12:47 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 213 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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