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Elite Women

25.10.2025 Alanya TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Alanya

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 64/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 97.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.1
Mean swim error8.5 s
Mean bike-speed error0.90 km/h
Correct bike groups22/42
No history0
Within the 80% range73.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Manon Laporte
FRA
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:27
15:27
 43:42
Show details
Prediction details: Manon Laporte

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:22 / km)
Total: 43:42
2 / 4 Appoline Foltz
FRA
+22 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:28
15:59
 43:43
Show details
Prediction details: Appoline Foltz

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–16
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:23 / km)
Total: 43:43
3 / 3 Ana Carballo Gómez
ESP
+29 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:29
15:44
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Carballo Gómez

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:23 / km)
Total: 43:44
4 / 9 Paulina Klimas
POL
+25 s
+30 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:36
16:24
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Paulina Klimas

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:24 / km)
Total: 43:51
5 / 2 Mathilde Gautier
FRA
+2 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:38
15:29
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Mathilde Gautier

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:38 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:38 (3:25 / km)
Total: 43:53
6 / 8 Asia Mercatelli
ITA
+22 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:49
16:07
 44:04
Show details
Prediction details: Asia Mercatelli

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:27 / km)
Total: 44:04
7 / 5 Léonie Douche
FRA
+25 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:09
16:08
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Léonie Douche

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:32 / km)
Total: 44:24
8 / 10 Anabel Knoll
GER
+15 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:13
16:20
 44:28
Show details
Prediction details: Anabel Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:32 / km)
Total: 44:28
9 / 36 Matylda Wojakiewicz
POL
+22 s
+32 s
G1 / G2
 16:38
18:08
 44:53
Show details
Prediction details: Matylda Wojakiewicz

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–26
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:58 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 44:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:38 / km)
Total: 44:53
10 / 14 Celia Merle
FRA
+7 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:43
16:30
 44:58
Show details
Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:39 / km)
Total: 44:58
11 / 18 Clara Aulinas Prat
ESP
+21 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:43
16:44
 44:58
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Aulinas Prat

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–24
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:39 / km)
Total: 44:58
12 / 12 Hannelore Willen
BEL
+21 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:48
16:21
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Hannelore Willen

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–26
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -3.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:48 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:48 (3:40 / km)
Total: 45:03
13 / 21 Carlotta Bonacina
ITA
+26 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:51
16:50
 45:06
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Bonacina

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–34
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 3.4 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:41 / km)
Total: 45:06
14 / 26 Odil Wittemans
BEL
+23 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:52
17:11
 45:07
Show details
Prediction details: Odil Wittemans

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 15–25
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:07
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:41 / km)
Total: 45:07
15 / 7 Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri
ITA
+40 s
+30 s
G2 / G1
 16:10
16:11
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 4–31
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 28 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+39 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:12
16:31
 45:12
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 3–32
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 17.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Marie Wattiez
FRA
+30 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 16:13
16:46
 45:13
Show details
Prediction details: Marie Wattiez

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–22
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:13
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 31 Chiara Lobba
ITA
+33 s
+47 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:14
17:03
 45:14
Show details
Prediction details: Chiara Lobba

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -13.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:33 / km)
Total: 45:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17 Gillian Cridge
USA
+33 s
+35 s
G2 / G1
 16:25
16:39
 45:25
Show details
Prediction details: Gillian Cridge

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:35 / km)
Total: 45:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 15 Katrien Maes
BEL
+30 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 16:28
16:37
 45:28
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 12–24
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:28 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:28 (3:36 / km)
Total: 45:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 20 Nora Romina Nádas
HUN
+19 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:17
16:49
 45:32
Show details
Prediction details: Nora Romina Nádas

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 12–32
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -5.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:17 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:17 (3:46 / km)
Total: 45:32
22 / 25 Mit Wittemans
BEL
+11 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:21
17:07
 45:36
Show details
Prediction details: Mit Wittemans

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–32
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -4.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:47 / km)
Total: 45:36
23 / 24 Betsy Griffiths
GBR
+28 s
+38 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:24
17:01
 45:39
Show details
Prediction details: Betsy Griffiths

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -9.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:24 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:39
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:24 (3:48 / km)
Total: 45:39
24 / 27 Anita Ghelardoni
ITA
+51 s
+21 s
G3 / G1
 16:30
17:13
 45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Anita Ghelardoni

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 17–35
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 30.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:55
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:30 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:36 / km)
Total: 45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 22.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 11 Manon Pomme
FRA
+23 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:44
16:26
 45:59
Show details
Prediction details: Manon Pomme

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 24–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 45:59
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:52 / km)
Total: 45:59
26 / 13 Noémi Van der Kaaij
SUI
+34 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 17:02
16:31
 46:02
Show details
Prediction details: Noémi Van der Kaaij

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 8–39
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:43 / km)
Total: 46:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 19 Johanna Uherek
GER
+38 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 17:05
16:44
 46:05
Show details
Prediction details: Johanna Uherek

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 13–37
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:44 / km)
Total: 46:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 32 Alice Riebler
ITA
+45 s
+50 s
G3 / G2
 16:48
17:03
 46:13
Show details
Prediction details: Alice Riebler

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 13–36
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:48 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:30 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:48 (3:40 / km)
Total: 46:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 23 Antonia Jubb
GBR
+24 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:09
16:51
 46:24
Show details
Prediction details: Antonia Jubb

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 27–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:09 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:41 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 46:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:09 (3:58 / km)
Total: 46:24
30 / 34 Laura Inez Papp
HUN
+31 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:26
17:48
 46:26
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Inez Papp

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 23–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:48 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:48 / km)
Total: 46:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 35 Alina Sinevich
BLR
+46 s
+38 s
G3 / G2
 17:03
17:50
 46:28
Show details
Prediction details: Alina Sinevich

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 23–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 46:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:30 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:43 / km)
Total: 46:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 17.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 29 Ellie Hobbs
TRI
+54 s
+47 s
G3 / G2
 17:17
16:41
 46:42
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Hobbs

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:17 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:42
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:30 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:17 (3:46 / km)
Total: 46:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 30 Inna Sysoeva
AIN
+34 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 17:44
17:54
 46:44
Show details
Prediction details: Inna Sysoeva

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 28–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:44
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:52 / km)
Total: 46:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 33 Elena Bitzi
SUI
+40 s
+35 s
G2 / G1
 17:53
18:08
 46:53
Show details
Prediction details: Elena Bitzi

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 30–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:54 / km)
Total: 46:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 11.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 22 Sophie Gießmann
GER
+64 s
+29 s
G4 / G1
 16:42
16:50
 47:23
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Gießmann

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 19–39
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 34.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 7.8 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:39 / km)
Total: 47:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 41 Leonie Hauser
AUT
+39 s
+66 s
G2 / G3
 18:29
18:16
 47:29
Show details
Prediction details: Leonie Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 34–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -27.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (4:02 / km)
Total: 47:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 39 Fruzsina Dóra Kovács
HUN
+60 s
+47 s
G4 / G3
 16:50
17:05
 47:31
Show details
Prediction details: Fruzsina Dóra Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 22–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:35 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:41 / km)
Total: 47:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 31.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 37 Anna Zehnder
SUI
+72 s
+72 s
G5 / G3
 15:57
16:24
 47:33
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Zehnder

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 18–40
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:57 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 15:57 (3:29 / km)
Total: 47:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 42.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 40 Sofiia Bondarenko
UKR
+36 s
+46 s
G2 / G3
 18:45
17:26
 47:45
Show details
Prediction details: Sofiia Bondarenko

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 36–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -9.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 47:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (4:06 / km)
Total: 47:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 38 Isabelle Price
GBR
+75 s
+65 s
G5 / G3
 17:25
16:56
 49:01
Show details
Prediction details: Isabelle Price

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 40–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 27.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:01
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:48 / km)
Total: 49:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 46.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 42 Sophie Boehler
SUI
+103 s
+81 s
G6 / G4
 18:02
18:48
 52:45
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Boehler

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 42–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 11:16
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (4:06 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:45
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:16 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:00 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:56 / km)
Total: 52:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 74.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Elena Polaert
FRA
+29 s
+30 s
G1 / G1
correct
16:04
Show details
Prediction details: Elena Polaert

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (29 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:46 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable