Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Women

05.10.2025 Ceuta ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Ceuta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 66/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 91.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 97.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.9
Mean swim error37.6 s
Mean bike-speed error0.81 km/h
Correct bike groups13/34
No history0
Within the 80% range55.9 %
Details
1 / 2 Asia Mercatelli
ITA
+74 s
+15 s
G4 / G1
 12:07
17:17
 47:09
Show details
Prediction details: Asia Mercatelli

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 58.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.88 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:07 (2:25 / km)
Historical basis: 2:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: −5:10 / −1:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:35 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 12:07 (2:25 / km)
Total: 47:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 40.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 7 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+25 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:45
17:55
 50:36
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 50:36
3 / 3 Natalia Castro Santos
ESP
+41 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 17:07
17:22
 51:05
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Castro Santos

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 26.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 51:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 13 Noelia Juan
ESP
+51 s
+24 s
G3 / G2
 17:03
18:03
 51:13
Show details
Prediction details: Noelia Juan

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 27.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 51:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 51:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 17 Gemma Frigola García
ESP
+58 s
+17 s
G3 / G2
 17:05
18:32
 51:15
Show details
Prediction details: Gemma Frigola García

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 40.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 51:15
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 51:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 23 Letizia Martinelli
SUI
+51 s
+51 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:09
19:03
 51:19
Show details
Prediction details: Letizia Martinelli

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: −1:54 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 51:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 51:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+28 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:39
17:40
 51:30
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Total: 51:30
8 / 5 Jasmine Cooper
GBR
+17 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:59
17:36
 51:50
Show details
Prediction details: Jasmine Cooper

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 13.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:50
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 51:50
9 / 1 Ana Carballo Gómez
ESP
+46 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 18:06
17:12
 52:04
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Carballo Gómez

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 31.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 52:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Inês Rico
POR
+42 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 18:22
18:40
 52:20
Show details
Prediction details: Inês Rico

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 25.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Total: 52:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Finja Schierl
GER
+29 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:35
18:29
 52:26
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 52:26
12 / 8 Cristina Jímenez-Orta Guerrero
ESP
+26 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:45
18:15
 52:36
Show details
Prediction details: Cristina Jímenez-Orta Guerrero

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–17
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 13.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:36
13 / 9 Lilly-Marie Overberg
GER
+87 s
+19 s
G4 / G1
 17:40
18:13
 52:42
Show details
Prediction details: Lilly-Marie Overberg

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 4–28
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 67.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:42
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:35 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Total: 52:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 36.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Odil Wittemans
BEL
+36 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 18:49
18:24
 52:47
Show details
Prediction details: Odil Wittemans

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 52:47
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 52:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 4 Marina Muñoz Hernando
ESP
+75 s
+16 s
G4 / G1
 17:53
17:38
 52:55
Show details
Prediction details: Marina Muñoz Hernando

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 58.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:35 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 52:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 41.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 16 Helena Knaapi
FIN
+62 s
+17 s
G3 / G2
 18:50
18:20
 53:00
Show details
Prediction details: Helena Knaapi

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 44.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 53:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Total: 53:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 27 Marta Novo Dios
ESP
+45 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:08
20:58
 53:06
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Novo Dios

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 22.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 53:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 53:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 25 Lucia Gracia Sancho
ESP
+73 s
+80 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:07
18:57
 53:09
Show details
Prediction details: Lucia Gracia Sancho

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 53:09
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:35 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 53:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 39.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Ann Grossenbacher
SUI
+47 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:20
19:28
 53:18
Show details
Prediction details: Ann Grossenbacher

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 22.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 53:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: 53:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 14 Sara Crociani
ITA
+25 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:27
19:07
 53:18
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Crociani

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 9–27
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 23.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 53:18
21 / 15 Matilde Silva Santos
POR
+48 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 19:25
19:05
 53:23
Show details
Prediction details: Matilde Silva Santos

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 33.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Total: 53:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 28 Elena Bitzi
SUI
+54 s
+60 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:15
19:48
 53:25
Show details
Prediction details: Elena Bitzi

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–26
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Total: 53:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 40.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 26 Pauline De Groof
BEL
+85 s
+88 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:32
19:06
 53:34
Show details
Prediction details: Pauline De Groof

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 19–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -3.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:34
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:35 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Total: 53:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 51.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 21 Sara Moreno Gonzalez
ESP
+38 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 19:43
20:41
 53:41
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Moreno Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 10–26
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 38.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:41
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:10 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 19 María Barceló Serra
ESP
+57 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 19:34
19:17
 53:44
Show details
Prediction details: María Barceló Serra

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 19–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 39.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 53:44
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Total: 53:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 34 Julia Tenorio Albo
ESP
+88 s
+100 s
G4 / G6
 19:17
21:21
 54:19
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Tenorio Albo

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 21–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: -12.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:21 (4:16 / km)
Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 54:19
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:35 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Total: 54:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 37.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 24 Míriam Andreu Diaz
ESP
+93 s
+38 s
G5 / G3
 17:57
19:13
 54:32
Show details
Prediction details: Míriam Andreu Diaz

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 17–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +93 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 55.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 54:32
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:02 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 54:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 60.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 22 Margarida Barao
POR
+63 s
+20 s
G3 / G3
correct 		20:22
18:49
 54:32
Show details
Prediction details: Margarida Barao

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 22–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 42.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 9.7 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 54:32
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Total: 54:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 31 Miriam Zafra Crespo
ESP
+51 s
+63 s
G3 / G4
 21:10
21:04
 55:20
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam Zafra Crespo

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 26–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -12.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:10 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 55:20
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 21:10 (4:14 / km)
Total: 55:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 29 Marit Van Den Berg
NED
+100 s
+59 s
G6 / G4
 19:27
19:29
 56:13
Show details
Prediction details: Marit Van Den Berg

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 24–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 41.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 56:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:05 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 56:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 67.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 18 Lucía Piñón Pereira
ESP
+63 s
+21 s
G3 / G1
 22:28
19:31
 56:38
Show details
Prediction details: Lucía Piñón Pereira

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 27–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 41.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (16 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:28 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: +2:57 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 56:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 22:28 (4:30 / km)
Total: 56:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 32 María Tenorio Albo
ESP
+101 s
+91 s
G6 / G5
 21:04
19:48
 57:50
Show details
Prediction details: María Tenorio Albo

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 28–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 40.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 57:50
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:05 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Total: 57:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
33 / 30 Adriana Hornova
CZE
+142 s
+47 s
G7 / G4
 20:07
20:17
 58:03
Show details
Prediction details: Adriana Hornova

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 31–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +142 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 94.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.8 s
Gap behind: 235.2 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (4:03 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 58:03
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:35 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Total: 58:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 108.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 33 Tereza Mazlová
CZE
+377 s
+89 s
G8 / G5
 20:43
20:15
 1:03:59
Show details
Prediction details: Tereza Mazlová

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +377 s
Time: 14:50
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: 287.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 235.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:59
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:50 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:59 (33.7 km/h)
Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Total: 1:03:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 343.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.