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Final Men

01.06.2025 Kielce POL
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Kielce

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 67/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 93.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.8
Mean swim error11.5 s
Mean bike-speed error2.04 km/h
Correct bike groups3/24
No history0
Within the 80% range26.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+22 s
+4 s
G1 / G3
 4:54
5:19
 16:28
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 17.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (2:27 / km)
Historical basis: 2:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 2.09 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:19 (2:40 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 16:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (2:27 / km)
Total: 16:28
2 / 24 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+9 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 5:01
5:47
 16:35
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 4:29
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:01 (2:31 / km)
Historical basis: 2:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 1.85 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:47 (2:54 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 16:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:29 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:01 (2:31 / km)
Total: 16:35
3 / 9 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+13 s
+8 s
G1 / G3
 5:01
5:22
 16:35
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 4:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:01 (2:31 / km)
Historical basis: 2:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:22 (2:41 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 16:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:33 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:01 (2:31 / km)
Total: 16:35
4 / 11 Veikka Saren
FIN
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G3
 5:02
5:31
 16:47
Show details
Prediction details: Veikka Saren

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:55
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:02 (2:31 / km)
Historical basis: 2:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:31 (2:46 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 16:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:55 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:02 (2:31 / km)
Total: 16:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 18 Lucas Cambresy
LUX
+20 s
+5 s
G1 / G3
 5:18
5:35
 16:52
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 4:40
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:18 (2:39 / km)
Historical basis: 2:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 1.47 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 16:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:40 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:18 (2:39 / km)
Total: 16:52
6 / 28 Andreas Nikolajsen
DEN
+19 s
+21 s
G1 / G3
 5:20
6:04
 16:54
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 4:39
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:20 (2:40 / km)
Historical basis: 2:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:04 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 16:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:39 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:20 (2:40 / km)
Total: 16:54
7 / 17 Gregor Rasva
EST
+23 s
+1 s
G1 / G3
 5:21
5:37
 16:55
Show details
Prediction details: Gregor Rasva

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 22.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:21 (2:41 / km)
Historical basis: 2:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 2.50 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:37 (2:49 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 16:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:21 (2:41 / km)
Total: 16:55
8 / 22 Jakub Suchan
POL
+36 s
+22 s
G2 / G3
 5:14
5:41
 16:59
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Suchan

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–20
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 4:56
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:14 (2:37 / km)
Historical basis: 2:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 2.11 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 16:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:56 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:14 (2:37 / km)
Total: 16:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 21 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+22 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:34 17:08
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 17.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 17:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Total: 17:08
10 / 5 Victor Goené
NED
+23 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 5:36
5:21
 17:10
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:36 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:21 (2:41 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:36 (2:48 / km)
Total: 17:10
11 / 10 Gjalt Panjer
NED
+9 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 5:39
5:32
 17:13
Show details
Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 4:29
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -6.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:39 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:32 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 17:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:29 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:39 (2:49 / km)
Total: 17:13
12 / 15 David Lang
LUX
+11 s
+13 s
G1 / G3
 5:40
5:34
 17:14
Show details
Prediction details: David Lang

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 4:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 1.67 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -1.13 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 17:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Total: 17:14
13 / 2 Paul Georgenthum
FRA
+19 s
+19 s
G1 / G3
 5:41
5:08
 17:15
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 4:39
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -1.33 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:08 (2:34 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 17:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:39 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Total: 17:15
14 / 23 Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi
ITA
+28 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:31 17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 5.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:31 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 17:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:48 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:31 (2:46 / km)
Total: 17:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16 Delian Stateff
ITA
+16 s
+9 s
G1 / G3
 5:56
5:35
 17:30
Show details
Prediction details: Delian Stateff

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–21
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 4:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 17:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:30
16 / 6 Benedikt Bettin
GER
+23 s
+10 s
G1 / G3
 5:56
5:21
 17:30
Show details
Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:21 (2:41 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 17:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:30
17 / 26 Nathan Lessmann
FRA
+15 s
+8 s
G1 / G3
 6:00
5:44
 17:34
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Lessmann

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 4:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 7.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:44 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:11 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 17:34
18 / 14 Oliver Conway
GBR
+29 s
+19 s
G2 / G3
 5:56
5:33
 17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Conway

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 4:49
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.80 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:49 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 29 Janne Büttel
GER
+30 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 5:56
6:12
 17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Janne Büttel

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:12 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20 Fabian Schönke
GER
+33 s
+13 s
G2 / G3
 5:56
5:43
 17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Schönke

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 4:53
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 20.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:43 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 17:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:53 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19 Deri McCluskey
GBR
+31 s
+7 s
G2 / G3
 5:57
5:34
 17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Deri McCluskey

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 4:51
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.73 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.45 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:42
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:51 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 1 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+35 s
+25 s
G2 / G3
 5:57
5:08
 17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 4:55
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:08 (2:34 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 17:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:55 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 8 Ibe Baelde
BEL
+49 s
+21 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:43
5:22
 17:57
Show details
Prediction details: Ibe Baelde

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 5:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 28.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:43 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:22 (2:41 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:57
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 5:43 (2:52 / km)
Total: 17:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 13 Justus Töpper
GER
+39 s
+21 s
G2 / G3
 6:20
5:29
 18:05
Show details
Prediction details: Justus Töpper

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–24
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 4:59
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 3 (22 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:20 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.85 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 18:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:59 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:06 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 6:20 (3:10 / km)
Total: 18:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Joris Basslé
BEL
+4 s
 Bike DNF 5:53
Show details
Prediction details: Joris Basslé

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 4:24
Pace: 1:06 / 100 m
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 1.64 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 5:53 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -1.31 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:24 (1:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 5:53 (2:57 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Luca Fahrenson
GER
+43 s
 Bike DNF 6:28
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Fahrenson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 5:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 6:28 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -2.43 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:03 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 6:28 (3:14 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Christopher Perham
GBR
+16 s
 Bike DNF 5:29
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Perham

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 4:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 5:29 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 5:29 (2:44 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Dominic Coy
GBR
+26 s
 Bike DNF 5:34
Show details
Prediction details: Dominic Coy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:46 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 5:34 (2:47 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Till Kramp
GER
+23 s
 Bike DNF 5:30
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Pao Millo
FRA
+27 s
 Bike DNF 6:41
Show details
Prediction details: Pao Millo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:47
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 6:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.79 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:47 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 6:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.