Prediction comparison

Semifinal 1 Elite Men

01.06.2025 Kielce POL

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Kielce

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 57/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 73.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.6

Mean swim error13.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.90 km/h

Correct bike groups0/30

No history0

Within the 80% range26.7 %

						Details
1 / 8	Gergő Dobi HUN	+6 s +4 s	G1 / G4	5:04 5:46	16:40	Show details Prediction details: Gergő Dobi Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 4:50 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 1.5 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.72 km/h Running and total Run: 5:04 (2:32 / km) Historical basis: 2:29 / km Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 1.65 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:46 (2:53 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 16:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:04 (2:32 / km) Total: 16:40
2 / 6	Lucas Cambresy LUX	+13 s +6 s	G1 / G4	5:27 5:38	17:03	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–9 Top-10 probability: 96 % Result: 6 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 4:57 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 6.6 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 6.1 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 41.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.85 km/h Running and total Run: 5:27 (2:44 / km) Historical basis: 2:40 / km Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 2.28 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:38 (2:49 / km) Error: −0:11 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 17:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:57 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:27 (2:44 / km) Total: 17:03
3 / 3	Christopher Perham GBR	+9 s +4 s	G1 / G4	5:32 5:35	17:08	Show details Prediction details: Christopher Perham Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 4:53 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 5.2 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h Running and total Run: 5:32 (2:46 / km) Historical basis: 2:46 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 17:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:53 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:32 (2:46 / km) Total: 17:08
4 / 5	Jakub Suchan POL	+29 s +11 s	G2 / G4	5:16 5:40	17:13	Show details Prediction details: Jakub Suchan Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–12 Top-10 probability: 83 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 5:13 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 17.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.40 km/h Running and total Run: 5:16 (2:38 / km) Historical basis: 2:34 / km Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:40 (2:50 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 17:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:13 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 5:16 (2:38 / km) Total: 17:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11	Filip Vilenica CRO	+4 s +14 s	G1 / G4	5:38 6:04	17:14	Show details Prediction details: Filip Vilenica Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: 4:48 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -9.8 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.2 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.04 km/h Running and total Run: 5:38 (2:49 / km) Historical basis: 2:45 / km Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 2.42 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:04 (3:02 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 17:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:48 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:38 (2:49 / km) Total: 17:14
6 / 18	Lasse Rohrbeck GER	+20 s +13 s	G2 / G5	5:23 6:17	17:20	Show details Prediction details: Lasse Rohrbeck Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 4–11 Top-10 probability: 85 % Result: 18 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 5:04 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 7.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h Running and total Run: 5:23 (2:42 / km) Historical basis: 2:38 / km Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.50 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:17 (3:09 / km) Error: −0:54 / −0:27 / km Overall prediction: 17:20 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:04 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 5:23 (2:42 / km) Total: 17:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:00 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 3.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 22	Lehel Hóbor HUN	+6 s +12 s	G1 / G5	5:44 6:25	17:20	Show details Prediction details: Lehel Hóbor Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–9 Top-10 probability: 96 % Result: 22 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 4:50 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h Running and total Run: 5:44 (2:52 / km) Historical basis: 2:49 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.92 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:25 (3:13 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 17:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:44 (2:52 / km) Total: 17:20
8 / 24	Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg DEN	+7 s +7 s	G1 / G4	5:49 7:12	17:25	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Hostrup Sahlberg Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 76 % Result: 24 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 4:51 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 0.2 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.24 km/h Running and total Run: 5:49 (2:55 / km) Historical basis: 2:55 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:12 (3:36 / km) Error: −1:23 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 17:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:51 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:49 (2:55 / km) Total: 17:25
9 / 2	Delian Stateff ITA	+9 s +7 s	G1 / G4	5:55 5:32	17:31	Show details Prediction details: Delian Stateff Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 4–15 Top-10 probability: 48 % Result: 2 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 4:53 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 1.7 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.37 km/h Running and total Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:32 (2:46 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 17:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:53 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km) Total: 17:31
10 / 26	Johan Besse FRA	+36 s +24 s	G3 / G7	5:25 6:50	17:35	Show details Prediction details: Johan Besse Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–20 Top-10 probability: 24 % Result: 26 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 5:20 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 11.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.91 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h Running and total Run: 5:25 (2:43 / km) Historical basis: 2:45 / km Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:50 (3:25 / km) Error: −1:25 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 17:35 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 5:20 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:28 (39.8 km/h) Run: 5:25 (2:43 / km) Total: 17:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 19.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 14	Tomer Shapira ISR	+5 s +13 s	G1 / G5	6:02 6:05	17:38	Show details Prediction details: Tomer Shapira Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 7–16 Top-10 probability: 34 % Result: 14 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 4:49 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -8.0 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h Running and total Run: 6:02 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 41 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:05 (3:03 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 17:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:49 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 6:02 (3:01 / km) Total: 17:38
12 / 7	Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi ITA	+21 s +15 s	G2 / G4	5:43 5:40	17:40	Show details Prediction details: Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 9–13 Top-10 probability: 38 % Result: 7 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 5:05 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 6.2 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.20 km/h Running and total Run: 5:43 (2:52 / km) Historical basis: 2:48 / km Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:40 (2:50 / km) Error: +0:03 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 17:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:05 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 5:43 (2:52 / km) Total: 17:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:00 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 4.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 1	Oliver Conway GBR	+22 s +9 s	G2 / G4	6:00 5:29	17:57	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Conway Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 12–16 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 1 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 5:06 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 12.7 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (2:45 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 17:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:06 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km) Total: 17:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12	Itamar Levanon ISR	+39 s +18 s	G3 / G2	5:50	18:00	Show details Prediction details: Itamar Levanon Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 11–19 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 12 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 5:23 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 20.8 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 3.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km) Historical basis: 2:56 / km Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 18:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:23 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:28 (39.8 km/h) Run: 5:50 (2:55 / km) Total: 18:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 22.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 20	Samuel Künz AUT	+6 s +12 s	G1 / G5	6:31 6:15	18:07	Show details Prediction details: Samuel Künz Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 14–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 4:50 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: -6.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h Running and total Run: 6:31 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:15 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 18:07 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 6:31 (3:15 / km) Total: 18:07
16 / 13	Fiorenzo Angelini ITA	+20 s +13 s	G2 / G4	6:13 6:19	18:10	Show details Prediction details: Fiorenzo Angelini Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 12–20 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 13 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 5:04 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 7.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.53 km/h Running and total Run: 6:13 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:19 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 18:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:04 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:13 (3:06 / km) Total: 18:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:00 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 3.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 17	Benedek Peter HUN	+30 s +15 s	G2 / G5	6:19 6:13	18:16	Show details Prediction details: Benedek Peter Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 15–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 5:14 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 14.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 3.2 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.69 km/h Running and total Run: 6:19 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:13 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 18:16 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:14 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:19 (3:10 / km) Total: 18:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 13.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 23	Hugo Philippe BEL	+26 s +19 s	G2 / G5	6:23 6:43	18:20	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Philippe Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 15–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 5:10 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 7.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.32 km/h Running and total Run: 6:23 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:43 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:20 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 18:20 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:10 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:23 (3:11 / km) Total: 18:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 9.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 9	James Kadziak POL	+12 s +7 s	G1 / G4	6:45 5:48	18:21	Show details Prediction details: James Kadziak Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 13–24 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 9 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 4:56 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 4.8 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 59 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.04 km/h Running and total Run: 6:45 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:48 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:57 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 18:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:56 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 6:45 (3:22 / km) Total: 18:21
20 / 4	Luca Fahrenson GER	+36 s +0 s	G3 / G1	6:29	18:39	Show details Prediction details: Luca Fahrenson Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 17–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 5:20 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 36.1 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 6:29 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.19 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 18:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:20 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:28 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:29 (3:14 / km) Total: 18:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:00 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 19.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19	Quentin Pennone SUI	+19 s +21 s	G2 / G5	6:49 6:14	18:46	Show details Prediction details: Quentin Pennone Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 19–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 5:03 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: -2.3 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.1 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.82 km/h Running and total Run: 6:49 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -1.94 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:14 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:35 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 18:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:03 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:49 (3:24 / km) Total: 18:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 2.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25	Jarosław Jankiewicz Delgado POL	+33 s +26 s	G3 / G6	6:46 6:36	18:56	Show details Prediction details: Jarosław Jankiewicz Delgado Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 21–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 5:17 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 6.8 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.2 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h Running and total Run: 6:46 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:36 (3:18 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 18:56 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:17 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:28 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:46 (3:23 / km) Total: 18:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 10	Jan Scheffold GER	+37 s +6 s	G3 / G4	6:50 5:52	19:00	Show details Prediction details: Jan Scheffold Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 21–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 5:21 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 31.3 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 4 (12 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.25 km/h Running and total Run: 6:50 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.90 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (2:56 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 19:00 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:28 (39.8 km/h) Run: 6:50 (3:25 / km) Total: 19:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:00 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 20.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 16	Kacper Serwiński POL	+29 s +24 s	G2 / G6	7:24 5:46	19:21	Show details Prediction details: Kacper Serwiński Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 24–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 5:13 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 5.2 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 7:24 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.85 %, Sicherheit 51 % Ergebnis Lauf: 5:46 (2:53 / km) Error: +1:38 / +0:49 / km Overall prediction: 19:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:13 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 7:24 (3:42 / km) Total: 19:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:00 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 27	Jan Chmielewski POL	+24 s +34 s	G2 / G3	7:44	19:41	Show details Prediction details: Jan Chmielewski Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 25–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 5:08 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -10.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 7:44 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 19:41 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:08 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 7:44 (3:52 / km) Total: 19:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 7.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 28	Birk Eyde NOR	+29 s +24 s	G2 / G7	9:53 7:25	21:50	Show details Prediction details: Birk Eyde Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 5:13 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 4.6 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.01 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h Running and total Run: 9:53 (4:57 / km) Historical basis: 5:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:25 (3:43 / km) Error: +2:28 / +1:14 / km Overall prediction: 21:50 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:13 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (39.8 km/h) Run: 9:53 (4:57 / km) Total: 21:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 21	Elias Knoll GER	+0 s +24 s	G1 / G5	11:23 6:25	22:59	Show details Prediction details: Elias Knoll Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:44 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: -24.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h Running and total Run: 11:23 (5:42 / km) Historical basis: 5:50 / km Best comparable pace: 5:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:25 (3:13 / km) Error: +4:58 / +2:29 / km Overall prediction: 22:59 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 11:23 (5:42 / km) Total: 22:59
28 / 30	Bartosz Kantarowski POL	+0 s +39 s	G1 / G9	11:44 7:23	23:20	Show details Prediction details: Bartosz Kantarowski Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 29–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:44 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -39.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 34.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.83 km/h Running and total Run: 11:44 (5:52 / km) Historical basis: 6:01 / km Best comparable pace: 6:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:23 (3:42 / km) Error: +4:21 / +2:10 / km Overall prediction: 23:20 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 11:44 (5:52 / km) Total: 23:20
29 / 29	Jakub Wernerowski POL	+0 s +42 s	G1 / G8	12:24 6:55	24:00	Show details Prediction details: Jakub Wernerowski Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 30–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:44 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -42.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 98 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 4.2 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.98 km/h Running and total Run: 12:24 (6:12 / km) Historical basis: 6:21 / km Best comparable pace: 6:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:55 (3:28 / km) Error: +5:29 / +2:44 / km Overall prediction: 24:00 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.0 km/h) Run: 12:24 (6:12 / km) Total: 24:00
0 / 15	Till Krajenski GER	+42 s +8 s	G3 / G5	6:02		Show details Prediction details: Till Krajenski Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 5:26 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 34.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (9 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.37 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:02 (3:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 5:26 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 11:28 (39.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:01 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 25.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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