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Semifinal 1 Elite Women

01.06.2025 Kielce POL
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Kielce

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 65/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 89.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.6
Mean swim error25.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.64 km/h
Correct bike groups5/19
No history0
Within the 80% range36.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Joanna Woźniak
POL
+33 s
+15 s
G2 / G4
 5:43
6:18
 18:31
Show details
Prediction details: Joanna Woźniak

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 5:24
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 18.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:43 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 1.68 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:18 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 18:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:24 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 5:43 (2:52 / km)
Total: 18:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:16
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Julia Bröcker
GER
+11 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:14 18:58
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 5:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 1.22 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:14 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 18:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:33 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 6:14 (3:07 / km)
Total: 18:58
3 / 16 Józefina Młynarska
POL
+30 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 6:24 19:12
Show details
Prediction details: Józefina Młynarska

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 5:21
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 22.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:24 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 19:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:21 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:24 (3:12 / km)
Total: 19:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 15.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 15 Magdalena Sudak
POL
+18 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 6:29 19:17
Show details
Prediction details: Magdalena Sudak

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 5:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:29 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 19:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:29 (3:14 / km)
Total: 19:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 10 Josephine Seerig
GER
+20 s
+9 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:29 19:17
Show details
Prediction details: Josephine Seerig

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 5:11
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:29 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 19:17
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:11 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:29 (3:14 / km)
Total: 19:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Paulina Klimas
POL
+29 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 6:33 19:21
Show details
Prediction details: Paulina Klimas

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 5:20
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 27.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:33 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 19:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:20 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:33 (3:16 / km)
Total: 19:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:17
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5 Finja Schierl
GER
+16 s
+3 s
G2 / G3
 6:39
6:33
 19:27
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 5:07
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 19:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:07 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 19:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 14 Weronika Ptaszyńska
POL
+36 s
+20 s
G2 / G4
 6:44
6:41
 19:32
Show details
Prediction details: Weronika Ptaszyńska

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 5:27
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 15.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:44 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:41 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 19:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:27 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:44 (3:22 / km)
Total: 19:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:26
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 18 Gillian Cridge
USA
+33 s
+15 s
G2 / G5
 6:49
7:00
 19:37
Show details
Prediction details: Gillian Cridge

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 5:24
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:49 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:00 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 19:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:24 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 6:49 (3:24 / km)
Total: 19:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:16
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Letizia Martinelli
SUI
+32 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		7:11 19:59
Show details
Prediction details: Letizia Martinelli

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 5:23
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:11 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 19:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:23 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 7:11 (3:35 / km)
Total: 19:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 17.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 3 Rhune Vansteenkiste
BEL
+7 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 7:15
6:30
 19:59
Show details
Prediction details: Rhune Vansteenkiste

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 4:58
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.74 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:15 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 19:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:58 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:33 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 7:15 (3:38 / km)
Total: 19:59
12 / 4 Celia Merle
FRA
+9 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 7:17
6:31
 20:01
Show details
Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 5:00
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:17 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 20:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:00 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:33 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 7:17 (3:39 / km)
Total: 20:01
13 / 6 Sonja De Koning
NED
+18 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 7:15 20:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sonja De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 5:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:15 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 20:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 7:15 (3:38 / km)
Total: 20:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 2.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 11 Johanna Uherek
GER
+39 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 7:18 20:06
Show details
Prediction details: Johanna Uherek

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–17
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 5:30
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 33.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 12.9 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:18 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 20:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:30 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:09 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 7:18 (3:39 / km)
Total: 20:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
15 / 8 Alice Bagarello
ITA
+82 s
+19 s
G4 / G2
 6:32 20:36
Show details
Prediction details: Alice Bagarello

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 62.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:32 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 20:36
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:42 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 6:32 (3:16 / km)
Total: 20:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 66.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Alice Riebler
ITA
+52 s
+17 s
G3 / G2
 6:56 20:44
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Prediction details: Alice Riebler

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 5:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 35.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.9 s
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 20:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:56 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km)
Total: 20:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 37.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 9 Anna Zehnder
SUI
+66 s
+24 s
G4 / G4
correct 		6:43
6:27
 20:47
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Prediction details: Anna Zehnder

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 5:57
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 42.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:43 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 20:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:57 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:42 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 6:43 (3:21 / km)
Total: 20:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 51.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 13 Hanna Maksimava
BLR
+76 s
+16 s
G4 / G4
correct 		6:51
6:38
 20:55
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Prediction details: Hanna Maksimava

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 6:07
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 59.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:51 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:38 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 20:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:07 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:42 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 6:51 (3:26 / km)
Total: 20:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:16
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 50.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 19 Eliska Rihova
CZE
+79 s
+24 s
G4 / G6
 7:50
7:48
 21:54
Show details
Prediction details: Eliska Rihova

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 54.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:50 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:48 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 21:54
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:42 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 7:50 (3:55 / km)
Total: 21:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:16
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 53.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.