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Semifinal 4 Elite Men

01.06.2025 Kielce POL
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Kielce

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.1
Mean swim error15.5 s
Mean bike-speed error3.28 km/h
Correct bike groups9/23
No history1
Within the 80% range23.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+18 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:54
5:43
 16:40
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 4:49
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (2:27 / km)
Historical basis: 2:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.22 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:43 (2:52 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 16:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:49 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (2:27 / km)
Total: 16:40
2 / 5 Andreas Nikolajsen
DEN
+15 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:21
5:52
 17:07
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 62.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:21 (2:40 / km)
Historical basis: 2:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 1.57 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:52 (2:56 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 17:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:46 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:21 (2:40 / km)
Total: 17:07
3 / 16 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+24 s
+18 s
G1 / G4
 5:30
6:07
 17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 4:55
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Historical basis: 2:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 17:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:55 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Total: 17:16
4 / 3 David Lang
LUX
+12 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:41
5:49
 17:27
Show details
Prediction details: David Lang

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.93 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:41 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:49 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 5:41 (2:50 / km)
Total: 17:27
5 / 7 Janne Büttel
GER
+27 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 5:56
5:53
 17:44
Show details
Prediction details: Janne Büttel

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:58
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:53 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:58 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+32 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:56
5:35
 17:44
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 5:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 17:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:03 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 5:56 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Philipp Mack
GER
+31 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 5:58
6:03
 17:46
Show details
Prediction details: Philipp Mack

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 5:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 24.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:03 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 17:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Total: 17:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Deri McCluskey
GBR
+27 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 5:59
5:46
 17:47
Show details
Prediction details: Deri McCluskey

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:58
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 18.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.46 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:59 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 17:47
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:58 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 5:59 (2:59 / km)
Total: 17:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6 Nathan Lessmann
FRA
+13 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:01
5:53
 17:47
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Lessmann

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 4:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.98 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:53 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 17:47
10 / 11 Kiril Polikarpenko
ITA
+22 s
+8 s
G1 / G3
 6:03
5:50
 17:49
Show details
Prediction details: Kiril Polikarpenko

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:53
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 17:49
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:53 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 17:49
11 / 8 Jan Volar
CZE
+17 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 6:15
5:45
 18:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Volar

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:15 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 18:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:48 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:15 (3:08 / km)
Total: 18:01
12 / 12 Max Meckel
GER
+22 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:46
6:29
 18:32
Show details
Prediction details: Max Meckel

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:53
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:46 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:29 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 18:32
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:53 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:46 (3:23 / km)
Total: 18:32
13 / 20 Marin Stipčević
CRO
+19 s
+22 s
G1 / G4
 6:50
6:35
 18:36
Show details
Prediction details: Marin Stipčević

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -3.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:50 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:35 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 18:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 6:50 (3:25 / km)
Total: 18:36
14 / 14 Omer Zafrir
ISR
+19 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		7:22
6:27
 19:08
Show details
Prediction details: Omer Zafrir

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:22 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.75 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 19:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:23 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 7:22 (3:41 / km)
Total: 19:08
15 / 19 Almog Elazzary
ISR
+41 s
+19 s
G3 / G3
correct 		6:17
6:34
 19:29
Show details
Prediction details: Almog Elazzary

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 5:12
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 22.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 59.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -23.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:17 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:34 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 19:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:12 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:31 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 6:17 (3:09 / km)
Total: 19:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 22 Adam Dąbrowski
POL
+30 s
+10 s
G2 / G4
 7:46
6:59
 19:34
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Dąbrowski

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 5:01
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 19.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:46 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.80 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:59 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 19:34
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:01 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 7:46 (3:53 / km)
Total: 19:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 3.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13 András Medvegy
HUN
+52 s
+24 s
G4 / G4
correct 		6:16
5:55
 19:42
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Prediction details: András Medvegy

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 5:23
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:16 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 19:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:23 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:27 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 6:16 (3:08 / km)
Total: 19:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 23 Igor Soborski
POL
+55 s
+28 s
G4 / G5
 6:30
6:23
 19:56
Show details
Prediction details: Igor Soborski

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 5:26
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 27.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.50 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:23 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 19:56
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:26 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:27 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Total: 19:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 26 Filip Pupka
POL
+40 s
+31 s
G3 / G7
 7:36
7:38
 20:48
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Pupka

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 5:11
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:36 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:38 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 20:48
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:11 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:31 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 7:36 (3:48 / km)
Total: 20:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 13.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 25 Ignacy Bartłomiejczyk
POL
+59 s
+22 s
G4 / G6
 7:33
7:26
 20:59
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacy Bartłomiejczyk

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 5:30
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 37.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:33 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:26 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 20:59
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 5:30 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:27 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 7:33 (3:47 / km)
Total: 20:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 33.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 15 Miks Meijers
LAT
+36 s
+26 s
G3 / G2
 7:57
6:33
 21:09
Show details
Prediction details: Miks Meijers

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 5:07
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:57 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.70 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:17 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 21:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:07 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:31 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 7:57 (3:58 / km)
Total: 21:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 24 Michał Pisanko
POL
+39 s
+24 s
G3 / G5
 12:03
6:43
 25:15
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Pisanko

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 5:10
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 15.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:03 (6:02 / km)
Historical basis: 6:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:43 (3:22 / km)
Error: +5:20 / +2:40 / km
Overall prediction: 25:15
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:10 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:31 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 12:03 (6:02 / km)
Total: 25:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 13.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Leon Raeder
GER
+51 s
+20 s
G4 / G1
6:00
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Raeder

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 5:22
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 31.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 5:22 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:27 (36.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Karol Armuła
POL
+31 s
 Bike DNF 5:57
Show details
Prediction details: Karol Armuła

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 5:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 1.72 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 5:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Wiktor Zasada
POL
+27 s
 Bike DNF 6:40
Show details
Prediction details: Wiktor Zasada

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:58
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 6:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:58 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 6:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Sebastian Grassewitz
GER
+0 s
+8 s
G0 / G2
7:01
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Grassewitz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:01 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.