Prediction comparison

Elite Women

29.03.2025 Quarteira POR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Europe Triathlon Cup Quarteira

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.03.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error9.8

Mean swim error36.5 s

Mean bike-speed error1.76 km/h

Correct bike groups10/39

No history0

Within the 80% range43.6 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 30	Chiara Lobba ITA	+67 s +124 s	G2 / G6	34:16 37:04	1:36:38	Show details Prediction details: Chiara Lobba Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–27 Top-10 probability: 63 % Result: 30 Deviation: -29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 19:22 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +124 s Fehler: -56.8 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.58 km/h Running and total Run: 34:16 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:04 (3:42 / km) Error: −2:48 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:22 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 34:16 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:36:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 28.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5	Roksana Slupek POL	+42 s +56 s	G2 / G2 correct	34:18 34:37	1:36:40	Show details Prediction details: Roksana Slupek Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 5 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 18:57 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -13.8 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 34:18 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 51 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:37 (3:28 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:57 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 34:18 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:36:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 3.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Maria Tomé POR	+63 s +55 s	G2 / G2 correct	34:37 34:26	1:36:59	Show details Prediction details: Maria Tomé Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–16 Top-10 probability: 71 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 19:18 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 8.0 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.5 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 96 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:26 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:18 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km) Total: 1:36:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 24.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 26	Cecilia Santamaria Surroca ESP	+27 s +38 s	G1 / G2	34:56 40:24	1:37:04	Show details Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–10 Top-10 probability: 90 % Result: 26 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 18:42 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -10.7 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 91 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h Running and total Run: 34:56 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 72 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:24 (4:02 / km) Error: −5:28 / −0:33 / km Overall prediction: 1:37:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 34:56 (3:30 / km) Total: 1:37:04
5 / 9	Marta Pintanel Raymundo ESP	+32 s +100 s	G1 / G3	35:43 35:14	1:37:51	Show details Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–13 Top-10 probability: 56 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 18:47 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: -67.8 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 73 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h Running and total Run: 35:43 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:14 (3:31 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:37:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:47 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 35:43 (3:34 / km) Total: 1:37:51
6 / 14	Ilona Hadhoum FRA	+33 s +37 s	G1 / G4	35:53 35:51	1:38:01	Show details Prediction details: Ilona Hadhoum Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–15 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 14 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 18:48 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -4.5 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h Running and total Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:51 (3:35 / km) Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:48 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km) Total: 1:38:01
7 / 20	Alzbeta Hruskova CZE	+56 s +58 s	G2 / G2 correct	35:42 38:33	1:38:04	Show details Prediction details: Alzbeta Hruskova Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 10–21 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 20 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 19:11 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -2.5 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 63 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 7.5 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h Running and total Run: 35:42 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 1.20 %, Sicherheit 37 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:33 (3:51 / km) Error: −2:51 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:11 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 35:42 (3:34 / km) Total: 1:38:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 16.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8	Yuko Takahashi JPN	+18 s +59 s	G1 / G2	36:00 35:57	1:38:08	Show details Prediction details: Yuko Takahashi Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 45 % Result: 8 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 18:33 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: -41.4 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.1 s Gap behind: 7.3 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h Running and total Run: 36:00 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:57 (3:36 / km) Error: +0:03 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:33 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 36:00 (3:36 / km) Total: 1:38:08
9 / 1	Tilly Anema GBR	+10 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	36:10 34:35	1:38:18	Show details Prediction details: Tilly Anema Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 8–16 Top-10 probability: 38 % Result: 1 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 18:25 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 9.5 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 8.1 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.83 km/h Running and total Run: 36:10 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:35 (3:28 / km) Error: +1:35 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:18 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:25 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 36:10 (3:37 / km) Total: 1:38:18
10 / 6	Manon Laporte FRA	+29 s +37 s	G1 / G2	36:10 35:34	1:38:18	Show details Prediction details: Manon Laporte Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 4–30 Top-10 probability: 44 % Result: 6 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 18:44 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -7.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 78 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h Running and total Run: 36:10 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:34 (3:33 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:18 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 36:10 (3:37 / km) Total: 1:38:18
11 / 29	Costanza Arpinelli ITA	+49 s +114 s	G2 / G5	35:59 36:52	1:38:21	Show details Prediction details: Costanza Arpinelli Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 10–21 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 29 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 19:04 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +114 s Fehler: -65.2 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 6.5 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.33 km/h Running and total Run: 35:59 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:52 (3:41 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 35:59 (3:36 / km) Total: 1:38:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 10 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 18	Carlotta Missaglia ITA	+45 s +76 s	G2 / G3	36:12 36:54	1:38:34	Show details Prediction details: Carlotta Missaglia Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 11–21 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 18 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 19:00 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: -30.7 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 69 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h Running and total Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:54 (3:41 / km) Error: −0:42 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km) Total: 1:38:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 6.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12	Alessia Orla ITA	+38 s +54 s	G1 / G2	36:37 37:10	1:38:45	Show details Prediction details: Alessia Orla Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 12–21 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 12 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 18:53 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -16.4 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h Running and total Run: 36:37 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:10 (3:43 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:45 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:53 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 36:37 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:38:45
14 / 16	María Casals Mojica ESP	+70 s +97 s	G2 / G3	36:29 36:33	1:38:51	Show details Prediction details: María Casals Mojica Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 15–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 19:25 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +97 s Fehler: -27.4 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.75 km/h Running and total Run: 36:29 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:33 (3:39 / km) Error: −0:04 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:25 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 36:29 (3:39 / km) Total: 1:38:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 30.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 34	Isla Britton CAN	+70 s +136 s	G2 / G6	36:36 39:49	1:38:58	Show details Prediction details: Isla Britton Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 9–32 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 34 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 19:25 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +136 s Fehler: -65.8 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.49 km/h Running and total Run: 36:36 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:49 (3:59 / km) Error: −3:13 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:25 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 36:36 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:38:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 31.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 2	Melanie Santos POR	+55 s +7 s	G2 / G1	36:40 35:43	1:39:02	Show details Prediction details: Melanie Santos Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 14–25 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 2 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 19:10 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 48.3 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 76 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.07 km/h Running and total Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:43 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:57 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:39:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 16.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 19	Natalia Castro Santos ESP	+66 s +61 s	G2 / G3	36:55 37:17	1:39:17	Show details Prediction details: Natalia Castro Santos Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 15–31 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 19 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 19:21 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: 5.0 s H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h Running and total Run: 36:55 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:17 (3:44 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 36:55 (3:41 / km) Total: 1:39:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 27.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 22	Martina McDowell ITA	+35 s +50 s	G1 / G2	37:23 38:50	1:39:31	Show details Prediction details: Martina McDowell Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 4–30 Top-10 probability: 41 % Result: 22 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 18:50 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -15.0 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 61 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h Running and total Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:50 (3:53 / km) Error: −1:27 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:31 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:50 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km) Total: 1:39:31
19 / 23	Katie Rodda GBR	+42 s +57 s	G2 / G2 correct	37:11 38:58	1:39:33	Show details Prediction details: Katie Rodda Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 15–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 18:57 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -15.5 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 67 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h Running and total Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:58 (3:54 / km) Error: −1:47 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:57 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Total: 1:39:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 2.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 15	Celia Merle FRA	+7 s +58 s	G1 / G2	37:28 37:27	1:39:36	Show details Prediction details: Celia Merle Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 5–31 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 15 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 18:22 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -51.1 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 1.50 %, Sicherheit 68 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.9 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h Running and total Run: 37:28 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 64 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:27 (3:45 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:22 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 37:28 (3:45 / km) Total: 1:39:36
21 / 7	Barbara De Koning NED	+41 s +56 s	G2 / G2 correct	37:22 35:34	1:39:44	Show details Prediction details: Barbara De Koning Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 17–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 18:56 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -14.7 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h Running and total Run: 37:22 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:34 (3:33 / km) Error: +1:48 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:56 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 37:22 (3:44 / km) Total: 1:39:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 2.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 10	Mathilde Gautier FRA	+25 s +2 s	G1 / G1 correct	37:52 38:13	1:40:00	Show details Prediction details: Mathilde Gautier Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 18–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 18:40 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 22.9 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 70 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.3 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h Running and total Run: 37:52 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:13 (3:49 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:40 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 37:52 (3:47 / km) Total: 1:40:00
23 / 21	Maria Alzaga Criado ESP	+72 s +57 s	G2 / G2 correct	38:13 38:46	1:40:35	Show details Prediction details: Maria Alzaga Criado Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 22–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 19:27 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 38:13 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 94 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:46 (3:53 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 38:13 (3:49 / km) Total: 1:40:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 33 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 11	Alejandra Seguí Soria ESP	+26 s +57 s	G1 / G2	38:34 37:06	1:40:42	Show details Prediction details: Alejandra Seguí Soria Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 16–32 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 11 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 18:41 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -30.9 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h Running and total Run: 38:34 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:06 (3:43 / km) Error: +1:28 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:41 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 38:34 (3:51 / km) Total: 1:40:42
25 / 4	Therese Feuersinger AUT	+64 s +4 s	G2 / G1	38:46 35:59	1:41:08	Show details Prediction details: Therese Feuersinger Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 25–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: 21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 19:19 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 60.0 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.07 km/h Running and total Run: 38:46 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 42 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:59 (3:36 / km) Error: +2:47 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:19 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 38:46 (3:53 / km) Total: 1:41:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 25.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 37	Sam McInnes GBR	+75 s +151 s	G2 / G7	39:04 38:19	1:41:26	Show details Prediction details: Sam McInnes Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 20–38 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 37 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +75 s Time: 19:30 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +151 s Fehler: -75.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 34.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.14 km/h Running and total Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (3:50 / km) Error: +0:45 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:26 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:30 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km) Total: 1:41:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
27 / 25	Rani Skrabanja NED	+9 s +92 s	G1 / G3	39:54 38:41	1:42:02	Show details Prediction details: Rani Skrabanja Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 26–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 18:24 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: -83.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 1.40 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 39:54 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:41 (3:52 / km) Error: +1:13 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:24 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 39:54 (3:59 / km) Total: 1:42:02
28 / 27	Mit Wittemans BEL	+31 s +57 s	G1 / G2	39:58 41:07	1:42:06	Show details Prediction details: Mit Wittemans Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 18–39 Top-10 probability: 5 % Result: 27 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 18:46 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -26.1 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 78 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h Running and total Run: 39:58 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:07 (4:07 / km) Error: −1:09 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:46 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: 39:58 (4:00 / km) Total: 1:42:06
29 / 36	Finja Loges GER	+74 s +67 s	G2 / G6	40:02 40:31	1:42:24	Show details Prediction details: Finja Loges Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 29–35 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 19:29 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.09 km/h Running and total Run: 40:02 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 3:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:31 (4:03 / km) Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:24 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 19:29 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 40:02 (4:00 / km) Total: 1:42:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 34.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 13	Madalena Amaral Almeida POR	+80 s +94 s	G3 / G3 correct	38:00 36:04	1:43:49	Show details Prediction details: Madalena Amaral Almeida Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 19–37 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 13 Deviation: 17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: 19:35 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +94 s Fehler: -14.5 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 82 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 9.5 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 38:00 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:04 (3:36 / km) Error: +1:56 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:17 (37.4 km/h) Run: 38:00 (3:48 / km) Total: 1:43:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 40.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 28	Inês Rico POR	+44 s +55 s	G2 / G2 correct	41:30 41:07	1:43:52	Show details Prediction details: Inês Rico Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 29–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 18:59 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -11.5 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.46 km/h Running and total Run: 41:30 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:07 (4:07 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:59 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 41:30 (4:09 / km) Total: 1:43:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 4.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 32	Alice Riebler ITA	+92 s +139 s	G3 / G6	38:05 38:42	1:43:54	Show details Prediction details: Alice Riebler Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 21–38 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 32 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: 19:47 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +139 s Fehler: -46.6 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 25.6 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.64 km/h Running and total Run: 38:05 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:42 (3:52 / km) Error: −0:37 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:47 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:17 (37.4 km/h) Run: 38:05 (3:48 / km) Total: 1:43:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:53 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 53.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 39	Mariana Vargem POR	+89 s +105 s	G3 / G6	38:16 53:13	1:44:05	Show details Prediction details: Mariana Vargem Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 26–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: 19:44 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: -16.0 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h Running and total Run: 38:16 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 53:13 (5:19 / km) Error: −14:57 / −1:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:17 (37.4 km/h) Run: 38:16 (3:50 / km) Total: 1:44:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 50.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 24	Tabea Huys AUT	+118 s +53 s	G4 / G2	38:51 39:22	1:44:41	Show details Prediction details: Tabea Huys Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 35–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +118 s Time: 20:13 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 65.0 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 25.6 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.31 km/h Running and total Run: 38:51 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:22 (3:56 / km) Error: −0:31 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:13 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:52 (37.6 km/h) Run: 38:51 (3:53 / km) Total: 1:44:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 79.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 31	Matilde Silva Santos POR	+69 s +70 s	G2 / G3	42:25 41:46	1:44:47	Show details Prediction details: Matilde Silva Santos Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 34–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 19:24 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: -1.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 39.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 37.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h Running and total Run: 42:25 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:46 (4:11 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:24 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:06 (39.3 km/h) Run: 42:25 (4:15 / km) Total: 1:44:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 30.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 33	Nele Dequae BEL	+79 s +137 s	G3 / G6	40:04 39:08	1:45:53	Show details Prediction details: Nele Dequae Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 30–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +79 s Time: 19:34 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +137 s Fehler: -57.9 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 6 (6 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.63 km/h Running and total Run: 40:04 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:08 (3:55 / km) Error: +0:56 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:34 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:17 (37.4 km/h) Run: 40:04 (4:00 / km) Total: 1:45:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 40.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17	Iida Reini FIN	+0 s +56 s	G1 / G2	37:52		Show details Prediction details: Iida Reini Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:15 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -56.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 2 (18 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:52 (3:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:15 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 35	Raquel Rocha POR	+90 s +105 s	G3 / G5	40:41		Show details Prediction details: Raquel Rocha Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 35 Deviation: -35 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +90 s Time: 19:45 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: -15.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.53 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:41 (4:04 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:45 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:17 (37.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 50.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 38	Desirée Knecht SUI	+0 s +243 s	G1 / G7	40:14		Show details Prediction details: Desirée Knecht Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 38 Deviation: -38 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:15 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +243 s Fehler: -243.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 6.9 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.22 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:14 (4:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:15 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:31 (39.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

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