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Junior Women

26.10.2025 TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Alanya

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 70.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.9
Mean swim error15.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.46 km/h
Correct bike groups9/20
No history0
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Jázmin Kropkó
HUN
+0 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:39
17:16
 46:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jázmin Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:09
2 / 1 Sofia Tikhonova
AIN
+23 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 17:25
16:17
 47:12
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Tikhonova

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 47:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:48 / km)
Total: 47:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Dóra Pusztai
HUN
+12 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 17:42
16:39
 47:29
Show details
Prediction details: Dóra Pusztai

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 47:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:52 / km)
Total: 47:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 12 Zsófia Baier
HUN
+25 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:59
18:31
 47:46
Show details
Prediction details: Zsófia Baier

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (4:03 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:56 / km)
Total: 47:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Elizaveta Syayleva
AIN
+27 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:24
17:43
 48:11
Show details
Prediction details: Elizaveta Syayleva

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:24 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:11
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:24 (4:01 / km)
Total: 48:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Dana Soroka
UKR
+10 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 18:30
18:00
 48:17
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:30 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:00 (3:56 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:30 (4:02 / km)
Total: 48:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Elizaveta Polianskaia
RUS
+18 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 19:00
16:59
 48:47
Show details
Prediction details: Elizaveta Polianskaia

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:00 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:42 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 48:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 19:00 (4:09 / km)
Total: 48:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 13 Mürya Karayel
TUR
+12 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:17
19:43
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Mürya Karayel

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (4:18 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (4:13 / km)
Total: 49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Mikkeline Fugleberg
DEN
+51 s
+36 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:46
17:45
 49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Mikkeline Fugleberg

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–16
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 15.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 11.7 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:53 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:53 / km)
Total: 49:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 47.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 20 Cemre Civelek
TUR
+36 s
+33 s
G3 / G4
 18:04
18:58
 49:45
Show details
Prediction details: Cemre Civelek

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (4:08 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 49:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:57 / km)
Total: 49:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Bettina Ecker
AUT
+41 s
+37 s
G3 / G2
 18:16
17:50
 49:57
Show details
Prediction details: Bettina Ecker

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:16 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 18:16 (3:59 / km)
Total: 49:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 37.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 7 Rebecca Van Aardt
GBR
+75 s
+28 s
G4 / G2
 17:08
17:33
 50:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Van Aardt

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 46.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 30.3 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:01
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:18 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 60.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 11 Mira Ivanova Georgieva
BUL
+33 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 18:29
18:18
 50:10
Show details
Prediction details: Mira Ivanova Georgieva

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 18.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (4:02 / km)
Total: 50:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 28.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Amalia Maria Singuran
ROU
+21 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 20:27
20:15
 50:14
Show details
Prediction details: Amalia Maria Singuran

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 14.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:27 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:25 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 20:27 (4:28 / km)
Total: 50:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 16.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 17 Kathrin Haiböck
AUT
+36 s
+39 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:48
19:30
 50:29
Show details
Prediction details: Kathrin Haiböck

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (4:15 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:29
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (4:06 / km)
Total: 50:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 32.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18 Mirolyuba Nenkova
BUL
+64 s
+67 s
G4 / G4
correct 		17:44
17:29
 50:37
Show details
Prediction details: Mirolyuba Nenkova

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 11:07
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:52 / km)
Total: 50:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 59.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 2 Viktoriia Shutova
AIN
+48 s
+9 s
G3 / G1
 19:59
16:38
 51:40
Show details
Prediction details: Viktoriia Shutova

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 38.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:59 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:38 / km)
Error: +3:21 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 51:40
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 19:59 (4:22 / km)
Total: 51:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 44 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 15 Ecrin Çınar
TUR
+51 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct 		20:03
19:02
 51:44
Show details
Prediction details: Ecrin Çınar

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 13.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.97 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:03 (4:23 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (4:09 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 51:44
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:50 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 20:03 (4:23 / km)
Total: 51:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 46.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 16 Raluca Vilcu
ROU
+63 s
+42 s
G4 / G3
 18:54
19:30
 51:47
Show details
Prediction details: Raluca Vilcu

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (4:15 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:39 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (4:08 / km)
Total: 51:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 59.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 19 Luna Sommerfeld
SUI
+105 s
+169 s
G5 / G5
correct 		18:05
17:57
 52:08
Show details
Prediction details: Luna Sommerfeld

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +105 s
Time: 11:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +169 s
Fehler: -63.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:05 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:55 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:08
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:48 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 18:05 (3:57 / km)
Total: 52:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 101.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.